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THE COMING WAVE (An Interview With Mother Abigail)
Tokuisei.Com ^ | 12-14-11 | James Oscar

Posted on 12/14/2011 4:59:02 AM PST by James Oscar

















THE COMING WAVE

(An Interview With Mother Abigail)


I came in from the wilderness, a creature void of form.
"Come in," she said, "I'll give you—shelter From the storm”


-Bob Dylan-









TOPICS: Health/Medicine; History; Science
KEYWORDS: freerepublic; h1n1; hiv; lusby; mddeaths; motherabigail; pandemic; ruthblake; tokuisei; virus
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To: Lazamataz

“This is Free Republic’s most unreadable post ever.”

It is fraught, certainly; but I found it compelling, if melodramatic, and read the whole damn thing.

It’s a hard rain’s agonna fall, alright, but seriously, Laz, would you hit Mother Abigail?

.


101 posted on 01/14/2012 10:37:20 AM PST by headsonpikes (Mass murder and cannibalism are the twin sacraments of socialism - "Who-whom?"-Lenin)
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To: Lazamataz

Thanks Laz,

My mother always said I would be a winner.


102 posted on 01/14/2012 4:01:43 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: headsonpikes

Egypt-Man, 30, hospitalized suspected bird flu H5N1 - 2 other family members similar symptoms, 1 dead - Fayoum


Man detained on suspicion of having bird flu

Sunday, 01/15/2012 - 15:56

Fayoum General Hospital held a young man on suspicion of having bird flu, where he showed symptoms of the chest and enter the hospital, which referred to the General Hospital to the lack of necessary equipment Chest Hospital, and was his sister had died last week with the same symptoms.

I had to. H, 30, suffered a very high temperature and flu-like symptoms and was taken to hospital in the chest, did not get him on the samples and swabs required before it is referred to the General Hospital.

Assesses the patient’s home district, next to the ashes of the hospital, and his sister were younger, and at the age of 22 years had died a week ago affected infected with the same symptoms, and remains one of his relatives suffer from the same symptoms at home.

http://www.el-balad.com/52728/ahtgaz-shab-llashtbah-fy.aspx

...Fayoum General Hospital held a young man on suspicion of having bird flu after showing symptoms of the disease, samples were taken for him to be sent to labs central Ministry of Health for analysis.

The reception hospital Fayoum General received yesterday evening the young man “on. H” (30 years) of the District of Dar ash city of Fayoum, which is suffering from high temperature and show symptoms of bird flu, and suspected of doctors in the illness, especially as it told them that his sister died last week after the appearance of the same symptoms, was detained in hospital and took him to the necessary samples and sent to labs central Ministry of Health for analysis, and confirmed as suffering from the disease or not.

http://www3.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID=578503&SecID=296&IssueID=0

__________________
CSI:WORLD

http://pandemicinformationnews.blogspot.com/


103 posted on 01/17/2012 7:17:16 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: mdmathis6
Thank you very much for reading.

Just a couple of notes you might be interested in:

1. The “someone” is Free Rebublic’s Mother Abigail - who is arguably one of the most famous posters on the Internet due to her SARS and EBOLA predictions. The SARS threads on Free Republic were a seminal turning point in the evolution of the Internet. You may have read my article (LOL)

2. Her actual prediction is that the HIV virus is evolving - searching for a way to become more virulent and that the first indications of that successful evolution will be an outbreak of deadly cases in Egypt that are, initially, misidentified as an H5N1 outbreak.

Again thank you for reading. I have been overwhelmed by the number of hits on the Tokuisei site - it is a bit humbling.

104 posted on 01/17/2012 7:25:12 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: headsonpikes
I appreciate your reading the entire work. It was written for a web site of medical professionals and is more a thesis than easy reading - so I fully understand the difficulty in the flow.

It was a hard task - trying to accurately portray the thoughts and theories of MA (for whom I developed a great deal of affection)and make such complicated virology readable to the public.

I hope that I had some success in both goals.

105 posted on 01/17/2012 7:30:34 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

If you want more people to read it, you ought to merge the files - constantly paging is irritating, esp. with satellite download delay.

Nevertheless, I found MA’s narrative rigorously empirical, lucid and cmpelling. She is correct, I fear - a bio-variant of Niven/Pournelle’s ‘Lucifer’s Hammer’ is likely to strike at some not distant time.

Thanks for posting.


106 posted on 01/17/2012 11:53:13 AM PST by headsonpikes (Mass murder and cannibalism are the twin sacraments of socialism - "Who-whom?"-Lenin)
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To: James Oscar

Well clarify something for me...Are looking at increased virulence and super progressive, another words since HIV infections take time to kill once a person is infected, are we talking about a decreasing “time to death factor as well...another words the period of time from infection to demise?


107 posted on 01/18/2012 5:37:43 AM PST by mdmathis6 (Christ came not to make man into God but to restore fellowship of the Godhead with man.)
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To: mdmathis6
Yes exactly,

MA believes that in the very near future the HIV virus, which has been continually evolving to a higher level of virulence, will develop the ability to move from lung to lung.

Once in the lung, the new HIV mutant will create a cytokine storm that will quickly overwhelm the patient and the time from infection to death will be sudden and dramatic.

The virus has now defeated all of modern medicine and can be found in every geographical region and in every culture on our little rock.

The weakness of this very diabolical bug is it's lack of an effective transmission method.

HIV is one of the most mutanagenic life forms on earth. The numbers of mutants created daily is an almost unbelievable number.

The change necessary to allow it to ride water droplets in a cough from one lung to another is really quite achievable considering the massive mutation rate.

That is why the rising virus count of patients is worrisome. The denser the infection the more likely airborne transmission might be possible.

Her fixation on the use of neuriminidase inhibitors on HIV patients with the flu is based on the known science that neuriminidase increase HIV mutation. Which in a sick patient with coughing, sneezing etc. seems, to MA, insane.

So, sorry for all the words, your summation is spot on. The method of transmission changes the long time from infection to death to something much more akin to the Spanish Flu.

108 posted on 01/18/2012 6:52:58 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: headsonpikes

I will consider offering just such a merged file. The page format was designed for the Kindle editor who is considering allowing me to publish on the Kindle format.

If she ultimately decides not to sponsor the work then I will use the Kindle self publish method, but I could easily offer from my main menu here:

http://tokuisei.angelfire.com/Home.html

a choice of Kindle-type paging or one continuous file.

Thank you very much for the feedback. It has been a real trip talking to people from all over the world about the piece.


109 posted on 01/18/2012 7:04:49 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

Well...COLONIC RELEASE AVALANCHE PHENOMENA!(or CRAP for short!)


110 posted on 01/18/2012 3:48:54 PM PST by mdmathis6 (Christ came not to make man into God but to restore fellowship of the Godhead with man.)
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To: James Oscar

So it is like a “Masque of the Red Death” scenario as written of by Poe.

I am an RN by trade working in an ICU. If something like this broke out, I might be faced with an untenable dilemma; especially since I have family!


111 posted on 01/18/2012 3:56:22 PM PST by mdmathis6 (Christ came not to make man into God but to restore fellowship of the Godhead with man.)
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To: James Oscar

So it is like a “Masque of the Red Death” scenario as written of by Poe.

I am an RN by trade working in an ICU. If something like this broke out, I might be faced with an untenable dilemma; especially since I have family!


112 posted on 01/18/2012 3:56:46 PM PST by mdmathis6 (Christ came not to make man into God but to restore fellowship of the Godhead with man.)
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To: mdmathis6

Q: I have one last question before I go, how will these folks know. Are you going to write, or will it be on the news or what?

MA: That is to be easy. All the systems are now in place. The Internet is here, the pandemic blogs are all up and watching and we only wait. It will be out of Egypt, because of the powerful infrastructure watching for H5N1 outbreaks, where most people will hear the first news. When you hear of the sudden outbreak in Egypt, leave immediately. Use only self service gas pumps, do not stop and do not have any human contact from that point on.

If you are alone, or with your family run to a refuge. Wait for it to burn out. Be patient and then patient some more. Let the darkness pass over the earth. It will be quicker than any Hollywood disaster movie could ever portray. But it will pass.

Q: Well that is pretty clear. Egypt huh?

MA: That is where you will first know.

_______________________________________________

Here is her advise to us. Watch Egypt.

It will break out in multiple locations but because of the H5N1 monitoring system in place - the news will first come out of Egypt.

It will be deadly and quick.


113 posted on 01/19/2012 7:07:44 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: mdmathis6

Q: MA, are you saying that there are to be multiple simultaneous mutations worldwide?

MA: Yes.

Q: And I assume this large scale outbreak is what overpowers the health care systems?

MA: There will never be a real opportunity for containment. This is not Hollywood. No hero will develop a magical antidote just in time to save the beautiful woman. No, this event is of such a consequence that, by the time the scale is apparent, the issue will be settled.

Because the virus is airborne the first three days of outbreaks will saturate such a large population that all the wheels will rapidly come off even the best health care systems. The first task will be to understand what is happening and it will, all to rapidly, become apparent that it is a very hot bug and that it is pandemic.

But by the time the extent of what has happened is well known - there will be no recourse.

Child, there is no recourse even now. We cannot kill this creature. We have only kept it at bay for these many years and that era of detente is rapidly ending.

Q: But MA, you make it sound so hopeless. How could you believe such a thing?

MA: There are things that I believe and things that I know. This virus and its coming change are something I know. I know in detail and specificity that defies all common understanding - yet my knowledge remains.

And now you know.


114 posted on 01/19/2012 7:10:33 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

I’ve seen cytokine storms short circuited with steroids and even aspirin...but i fear that those who survive the initial brush with HIV pneumonic variant will still have the hiv virus in their systems and suffer the eventual lingering denoument of their immune systems and end their lives with AIDS and related oppurtunistic infections.


115 posted on 01/19/2012 7:37:11 AM PST by mdmathis6 (Christ came not to make man into God but to restore fellowship of the Godhead with man.)
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To: mdmathis6

I am a writer and not a medical professional but here is what MA says about the Cy. storm.

___________________________________________

MA: Well, it is not so black and white as you make it. What I believe is that it will change. It will go airborne and it will become quick and deadly. When it makes that magic mutation that gives it the ability to ride the water droplets expelled in a cough or sneeze to the lungs of a healthy person - not only will it have found the mechanism for rapid transmission but the mutation will also set in motion a very different chain of events from what we know now.

When the new HIV virus arrives in the lungs of a new patient there is the great potential for a positive feedback loop to be established between the new invader and the host’s immune system. At the arrival of the new pathogen, cytokine will signal the body to send T Cells to fight the infection. The T cells, upon being stimulated by the cytokine will begin to produce even more cytokine.

This is the normal reaction and happens all the time. But we have a real problem don’t we?

Q: HIV lives on T cells?

MA: Yes of course. So now we have the feedback loop. T cells rushing to the lungs where they are infected with new virus and more and more cytokine being produced by the body. The result is called a “Cytokine Storm”. The lungs begin to fill with fluids and immune cells. The result is sudden death. When this event takes place in the lungs, it can kill a healthy young person in less than 48 hours. We learned this lesson in the 1918 flu outbreak.

Q: So the hardy virus can jump from lungs to lungs and once there put in motion a very serious reaction that will kill you rather quickly. Is that about it?

MA: Just about, the only addition I would add is that once the new bug creates this “soup” in the lungs - with each cough or sneeze this deadly pathogen is sent on an airborne journey looking for a healthy lung to infect.


116 posted on 01/19/2012 7:44:14 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
Neutralizing antibody responses are induced very late by HIV in humans - Zinkernagel

While for most acute cytopathic classical childhood infections, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, polio or small pox, our usual in vitro assays ELISA, ?-IFN producing T cells or T cell proliferation correlate reasonably well with the immunological memory, neutralizing antibody responses are induced very late by HIV in humans (or by LCMV in mice), observed Nobel Laureate Dr. Rolf M. Zinkernagel.

Delivering Public Lecture on 'Why do we not have a vaccine against HIV or TB', Zinkernagel said this common feature applies to several human persisting viral infections, including HBV, HCV, HIV (and many parasitic infections) even as HIV-1 infections induce quick and very good ELISA positive responses. If a neutralizing antibody arises and viraemia re-emerges, then often neutralizing antibody escape mutant viruses get selected. This indicates that only a multi-specific type of vaccine may eventually control such infections. Since this may include up to 10,000 or 100,000 variations for HIV (or 1,000 for influenza virus), such a vaccine will be very difficult to develop, he said.

The Nobel laureate said there is good evidence that only persisting and re-encountered antigen maintains the specific neutralizing antibody. This antigen-dependent protection is a far cry from the immunological memory and its relationship to vaccine mediated protection to become plasma cells. Therefore impact of antigen dependent protection via activation of B cells or effector T cells impinges on our understanding of protective vaccines, particularly against chronic persistent types of infections, he maintained.

Zinkernagel who got the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for 1996 along with Peter C Doherty said vaccine strains that tend to persist, such as BCG, loose protective capacity once the vaccine strain has been eliminated by the host.

On the other hand attenuated vaccine strains may regain virulence under certain circumstances (e.g. HIV-1 or SHIV) suggesting that development of sufficiently attenuated but not too much attenuated vaccine strains may be either extremely difficult or impossible.

http://www.indiaeducationdiary.in/showEE.asp?newsid=11409
117 posted on 01/19/2012 7:53:47 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
Once in the lung, the new HIV mutant will create a cytokine storm that will quickly overwhelm the patient and the time from infection to death will be sudden and dramatic.

Sounds like the viral equivalent of pneumonic plague. << shudder >>

118 posted on 01/19/2012 6:48:48 PM PST by Nita Nupress
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To: James Oscar

Thank you very much for the post. Was out of country during the original posting and caught the bounce.


119 posted on 01/19/2012 10:50:36 PM PST by PA Engineer (Time to beat the swords of government tyranny into the plowshares of freedom.)
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To: PA Engineer

Hope you enjoyed it. Feedback is always welcome.


120 posted on 01/20/2012 6:07:16 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar
Q: Well that is pretty clear. Egypt huh?

MA: That is where you will first know.

------------------------------------

Today .... Vietnam, Cambodia Report Bird-Flu Deaths

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577170692542297700.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond

Vietnam on Thursday confirmed its first human death from bird flu in nearly two years, a day after neighboring Cambodia also logged its first fatality this year as new cases of the H5N1 virus are reported in Asia and the Middle East.

Both deaths appear to be linked to contact with poultry, and no human-to-human transmission is suspected. Other human bird-flu cases have been reported recently in Indonesia, Egypt and China. Outbreaks typically flare among poultry stocks during the winter flu months, often resulting in a spate of human cases.

121 posted on 01/20/2012 1:14:40 PM PST by OwenKellogg (Gingrich / Robinson 2012!)
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To: OwenKellogg; Nita Nupress

clickable link ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577170692542297700.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond


122 posted on 01/20/2012 1:16:38 PM PST by OwenKellogg (Gingrich / Robinson 2012!)
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To: OwenKellogg

Hmmmmm....... That’s a little troubling.


123 posted on 01/21/2012 8:10:59 AM PST by Nita Nupress
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To: OwenKellogg

I think this is the way it will first appear. An unusual uptick in H5N1 cases (unconfirmed)and then clusters with health care worker involvement.

If I understand MA correctly, it would be best to be gone by then.


124 posted on 01/21/2012 7:44:02 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

If I understand MA correctly, it would be best to be gone by then.


Gone where?

Two die of A(H1N1) swine flu in Mexico: official
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.ed2a687c0642d8185d1e4e7ccab9f2c3.1e1&show_article=1

An outbreak of A(H1N1) swine flu claimed the lives of two people — 19 and 21 years old — in Mexico’s capital in the first weeks of the year, health authorities said Saturday.
The health secretary of Mexico’s Federal District, Armando Ahued, said there were 138 confirmed cases of the flu, including 110 cases of A(H1N1), a novel strain of the swine flu that was first detected in 2009.

Nationwide, 333 cases of the virus have been confirmed, the federal government’s health secretary said earlier in the week, without saying how many deaths had been attributed to it.


125 posted on 01/22/2012 4:52:59 AM PST by OwenKellogg (Gingrich / Robinson 2012!)
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To: OwenKellogg

Q: I stopped talking for a few moments and stared into the fire with my thoughts. It was too much to assimilate on one afternoon, now early evening. But this was my last night in Carson and my last night interviewing the remarkably complex lady who long ago signed on to a web site as “Mother Abigail”. I looked up and she was serene and quiet in her big black chair.

If this is all true, are you saying only isolated groups will survive - like in past bottlenecks?

MA: No, unfortunately groups will not be so lucky. All those well prepared groups who believe that when the stuff hits the fan they will survive because of where they live or where they will retreat to - will make one tragic error. They will welcome carriers into their retreats before the scope and speed of the outbreak are well known. It will be their undoing.

This outbreak is of a different scale. The penetration of the virus into human culture and population, the speed of the spread of the airborne variant, and the closeness of human contact in our modern age are all factors that, except for a few isolated pockets, mark the end of the rise of Homo Sapien Sapien.

It is very close to an extinction event.

Q: You say isolated pockets?

MA: Yes, there will be those few who, at first report of the strange deaths, will depart immediately to a place they have chosen and stocked with provisions. This will not be groups but the next step down - families.

This place will have ample water and be so removed from human contact that the virus will burn through our species without finding them in their place of refuge.

It will be these families that must carry on with our hopes and dreams of better days.

This is not an easy concept to understand but in all this trauma and tragedy - there is transformation. A sort of genetic winnowing and even, in the macro sense, a choosing.

For those who are awaiting this event, and child do not be deceived, they are many in many lands. These coming events are not unknown. They have a feeling, a premonition, a precognition of what lies ahead. It is growing in their hearts and they will not hesitate to flee at that crucial moment when flight and isolation are still possible.

Q: Precognition?

MA: Yes. We have spent a very long time discussing how in our species there is a range of abilities in the area of perception. Perception will be the only determinant in this bottleneck.

The time is so close that most of the staging for the refuge will have started long ago. They have chosen their spot, they are stocking the larder and they only wait. For they also know.

It is our time and as difficult as it may be, this is what we will do.

Q: Will you go to the lake?

MA: No, I am a doctor and I will serve in that capacity as best I can. This is my home and I am happy with my life’s work and I am at peace with my Lord. In this small town we will do what we can against a foe that carries only darkness and finality.


126 posted on 01/22/2012 4:10:25 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

I guess that says it all.

By the way, the 2 previous news links I posted were just things I saw on Drudge since you posted this thread.

Just now, there’s another.....

Bird flu claims another victim in China
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f4b3121d53c9061ef3bd59387255abe5.111&show_article=1

A man in southwest China who contracted the bird flu virus died on Sunday, state media reported, the second human death in the Asian country from the virulent disease in just under a month.
The victim fell ill on January 6 and was subsequently admitted to hospital in Guiyang — capital of Guizhou province — where his condition rapidly deteriorated, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Tests confirmed he had contracted the H5N1 avian influenza virus, it added.


127 posted on 01/22/2012 4:22:30 PM PST by OwenKellogg (Gingrich / Robinson 2012!)
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To: OwenKellogg

bookmark for later..if later comes?


128 posted on 01/22/2012 6:47:40 PM PST by jusduat (on the mercy of the Lord alone.)
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To: jusduat; OwenKellogg; Nita Nupress; PA Engineer; mdmathis6

Commentary

Data Supporting Enhanced Human H5N1 Transmission in Egypt
Recombinomics Commentary 16:50
April 21, 2009

That would be an alarming development, but other experts, including those at the World Health Organization, say such fears are exaggerated. Although thousands of Egyptians have rushed their children to hospitals this flu season, there is no evidence yet of asymptomatic avian flu cases or any significant mutation in the H5N1 virus.

“Right now, it’s all hot air,” said Dr. Robert G. Webster, a flu expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis. “I hope to hell it’s not happening, because it would mean the virus is adapting to humans. But there’s not a shred of data.”

The above comments from Donald McNeil’s New York Times piece, “Avian Flu Cases in Egypt Raise Alarms,” include the control data that provides more than a “shred of data” for enhanced H5N1 transmisison because the confirmed cases are focused in toddlers between the ages of 1 ½ and 2 ½. The other children “rushed” to hospitals this year have tested negative.

There have been 15 confirmed H5N1 cases this year and 12 were children. However, only one of the 12 was not a toddler. Moreover, the 11 confirmed toddlers are almost double the 6 toddler confirmed in the past three years. Thus, the frequency in each of the past three years was about 12%, while this year its 67% of confirmed cases. In addition, all have survived and most have had mild cases that did not produce pneumonia nor require ventilators. Only one of the 11 toddlers had been in critical condition, and even when osletamivir treatment begins three to four days after the start of symptoms, as seen in the latest case, the case is still mild.

These mild cases raise concerns that they may represents a small tip of a very large iceberg. In the spring of 2007 there were also mild cases, when 16/17 patients survived. However, the demographic was different. 16/17 of the cases were children between the ages of 3-10. Thus, the change in demographic from children in the spring of 2007 to toddlers in 2009 is significant and represents real data.

The concern of significant spread is also supported by the clustering of clusters. The two cases (#61 and #62) identified at the beginning of this month were cousins and next door neighbors in Kom Hadash in Beheira. The four day spread in disease onset date indicated the index case #61 infected his cousin, #62.

That cluster was followed by the formation of a similar cluster (case #64 and #66) in Kafr el Sheikh in a small district, Kellin. It remains unclear if these two cases were related or neighbors, but the two cases had disease onset dates separated by 8 days, and the cluster signals for efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans.

In addition, the other two cases this month (case #63 and #65) were from northern Cairo and admitted to the same hospital. Treatment was delayed after admission, suggesting the patients denied poultry contact.

Thus, the six most recent confirmed cases form three geographic clusters, signaling more efficient transmission of H5N1 to patients. Moreover, none of the patients have died, although three were initially in critical condition, but none were toddlers. The three toddlers in these cluster have mild cases and only the most recent case is still hospitalized.

In addition to the epidemiological data, suggesting H5N1 infections are significantly higher than the confirmed cases, is the evidence for a genetic change. Although there is no data supporting reassortment between human and avian flu genes, there is little reason to expect such data since there have been no prior reports, including dozens of H5N1 clusters signaling human to human transmission.

Instead there is evidence of a genetic change at position 129, which is in contact with the receptor binding domain. Most clusters involving clade 2.2 have receptor binding domain changes. The deletion of position 129, S129del, has been reported in 13 public H5N1 sequences in Egypt, including human and avian isolates in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, the cluster from Qena had this change in H5N1 from two siblings. The hospital admission dates for the siblings were four days apart, supporting the infection of one sibling (4M) by his sister (6F). The deletion is also associated with a downstream change, A152T, found in H5N1 escape mutants isolated by the Webster lab. This additional change signals the origin of the deletion.
In addition, another change at position 129 (S129L) is associated with human H5N1 isolates in Asia, signaling a role for this position in the adaptation to humans. Moreover, this change is also associated with changes that creates similarities between H5N1 and H1N1, human seasonal flu.

This genetic data is some obscured in the 2009 cases because NAMRU-3 has not released any H5N1 sequences from poultry or human isolates from the 2008/2009 season. However the first two cases of 2009 (toddlers from Cairo and Suez) was included in a WHO phylogenetic tree on vaccine target for 2009. Both toddler sequences were similar, and the branch on the tree suggested that the 2009 isolates belonged to the sub-clade with S129del. In prior trees from 2007 and 2008 WHO reports on vaccine targets, at least one public sequence with S129del was included. The absence of such a marker in the 2009 reports leaves some ambiguity, but it is likely that the two isolates from the toddlers has S129del.

Thus, the data on the genetic changes in H5N1 in 2009 in Egypt has been withheld by NAMRU-3, although WHO clearly has the data because it was required to construct the WHO tree.

Media reports indicate the WHO team is in route to Egypt to investigate the H5N1 cases and clusters.

Release of the withheld human H5N1 sequence data is long overdue.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04210902/H5N1_Egypt_Data.html


In light of MA’s prediction - this is very worrisome.


129 posted on 01/24/2012 2:55:30 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: Smokin' Joe

This might interest you.

Post #129


130 posted on 01/24/2012 3:01:24 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: OwenKellogg
Mother Abigail said: It will be out of Egypt, because of the powerful infrastructure watching for H5N1 outbreaks, where most people will hear the first news.


But that was a year or more ago, wasn't it? How is that powerful infrastructure now after the revolution towards the 7th century?

131 posted on 01/24/2012 4:03:29 PM PST by OwenKellogg (Gingrich / Robinson 2012!)
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To: OwenKellogg

A very good question.

While most of Egypt crumbles, the H5N1 reporting system in Egypt is the best in the world. (In my head I can hear MA saying that there are no coincidences).

______________________________________

These mild cases raise concerns that they may represents a small tip of a very large iceberg. In the spring of 2007 there were also mild cases, when 16/17 patients survived. However, the demographic was different. 16/17 of the cases were children between the ages of 3-10. Thus, the change in demographic from children in the spring of 2007 to toddlers in 2009 is significant and represents real data.

The concern of significant spread is also supported by the clustering of clusters. The two cases (#61 and #62) identified at the beginning of this month were cousins and next door neighbors in Kom Hadash in Beheira. The four day spread in disease onset date indicated the index case #61 infected his cousin, #62.

That cluster was followed by the formation of a similar cluster (case #64 and #66) in Kafr el Sheikh in a small district, Kellin. It remains unclear if these two cases were related or neighbors, but the two cases had disease onset dates separated by 8 days, and the cluster signals for efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans.

In addition, the other two cases this month (case #63 and #65) were from northern Cairo and admitted to the same hospital. Treatment was delayed after admission, suggesting the patients denied poultry contact.


132 posted on 01/24/2012 4:49:18 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

Thank you for posting this!


133 posted on 01/24/2012 4:51:33 PM PST by flutters (God Bless The USA)
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To: flutters

Jan 21st 2012, 17:56 by J.P.

IN DECEMBER boffins around the world were taken aback by an odd request. The American government called on the world’s two leading scientific publications to censor research. As we reported at the time, Nature (a British journal) and Science (an American one) were about to publish studies by two separate teams which had been tinkering with H5N1 influenza, better known as bird flu, to produce a strain that might be able to pass through the air between humans. The authorities fretted that were the precise methods and detailed genetic data to fall into the wrong hands, the consequences would be too awful to contemplate. They therefore suggested that only the broad conclusions be made public; the specifics could be sent to vetted scientists alone.

A furore duly erupted, fanned by fears of a pandemic that would make the “Spanish flu” of 1918, which may have claimed up to 100m lives, look like a mild case of the sniffles. On January 20th the teams’ leaders, Ron Fouchier of Rotterdam’s Erasmus Medical Centre and Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, bowed to public pressure. In a joint statement published in Nature and Science and signed by 37 other leading flu experts, they announced a voluntary 60-day moratorium on all similar research. The aim of the self-imposed suspension, they explained, is to give organisations and governments time “to find the best solutions for opportunities and challenges that stem from the work”.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/01/flu-research-and-biological-warfare


134 posted on 01/24/2012 4:56:15 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: James Oscar

Avian influenza - situation in Egypt - update

19 January 2012

The Ministry of Health and Population of Egypt has notified WHO of two cases of human infection with avian influenza.

The first case is a 2 year-old female from Cairo Governorate. She visited Helwan Fever Hospital as an outpatient on 30 October 2011 with symptoms of influenza-like-illness.

The case was confirmed by RT-PCR at the Central Public Health Laboratory through periodic testing of samples collected from ILI outpatients from sentinel ILI surveillance sites. The epidemiological team investigated the case after confirmation of the laboratory test.

Retrospective investigation through data collected from her family identified a positive history of exposure to backyard poultry.

Samples from the case have been sent to the US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3) for further sequencing.

The second case is a 31 year-old male from Fayium governorate.

He developed symptoms on 1 January 2012, received oseltamivir on 14 January 2012 and is still hospitalised under the critical care unit.

The case was confirmed by the Central Public Health Laboratory, a National Influenza Center of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network.

Epidemiological investigations into both the cases indicated that they had exposure to backyard poultry.
Of the 159 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, 55 have been fatal.

The case was confirmed by RT-PCR at the Central Public Health Laboratory through periodic testing of samples collected from ILI outpatients from sentinel ILI surveillance sites. The epidemiological team investigated the case after confirmation of the laboratory test.

Retrospective investigation through data collected from her family identified a positive history of exposure to backyard poultry.


135 posted on 01/24/2012 5:09:23 PM PST by James Oscar
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To: mdmathis6

Sounds like Stephen King’s The Stand to me.


136 posted on 01/24/2012 5:22:11 PM PST by kalee (The offenses we give, we write in the dust; Those we take, we engrave in marble. J Huett 1658)
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To: James Oscar

/save for later reading


137 posted on 01/24/2012 5:30:03 PM PST by MaxMax
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To: James Oscar

Here is the link to all the SARS threads (1,174 articles) that were posted on Freerepublic, from April 2003 thru January 2004:

SARS Threads
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/902131/posts?page=1

The list includes Mother Abigail’s Precognition (link #6) for those interested in reading the actual thread.


138 posted on 01/24/2012 5:54:39 PM PST by flutters (God Bless The USA)
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To: flutters

Oops...it is LINK #4


139 posted on 01/24/2012 5:56:16 PM PST by flutters (God Bless The USA)
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To: James Oscar

Thanks for the ping. Worrisome indeed.


140 posted on 01/24/2012 6:08:03 PM PST by PA Engineer (Time to beat the swords of government tyranny into the plowshares of freedom.)
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To: James Oscar
Of the 159 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, 55 have been fatal.

That stands out.
141 posted on 01/24/2012 8:44:58 PM PST by PA Engineer (Time to beat the swords of government tyranny into the plowshares of freedom.)
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To: James Oscar
Thanks for the ping. It has always seemed to me there are factors which make toddlers likely to catch diseases adults don't:

First, they are close to the ground, and more likely to inhale higher concentrations of pulverized guano than adults whose air intakes are normally significantly higher up.

Second, Toddlers are notorious for putting everything in their mouths, and decidedly unsanitary in their habits (fingers in everything, and subsequent oral contact).

Third, and related to both of the foregoing, they are at a level where they will pursue, and occasionally catch fowl, and short of being pecked, will even hug them. They are more likely to breathe the very air molecules the birds exhale due to proximity, and associated pathogens with them.

The seeming disease preference might only be a question of stature and habit selecting the demographic, rather than medical factors.

As for Mother Abigail's prediction, yes, it raises a hair or two on the back of my neck...We'll see what develops.

142 posted on 01/24/2012 11:32:13 PM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: kalee

Yes...but King being a struggling English teacher before he got “famous” was very familiar with “Masque”. When I read “The Stand” I immediately thought of Poe’s “Masque of the Red Death”!


143 posted on 01/24/2012 11:36:07 PM PST by mdmathis6 (Christ came not to make man into God but to restore fellowship of the Godhead with man.)
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To: James Oscar

I think the US spooks may have been monitoring your posts, James. A shot in the dark perhaps, on my part but as you quote MA...”There are no coincidences...”!


144 posted on 01/24/2012 11:45:07 PM PST by mdmathis6 (Christ came not to make man into God but to restore fellowship of the Godhead with man.)
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To: James Oscar
I went back and started reading from the start. SOmehow, in the midst of prepping for a well, and all the associated work deploying to location, I missed this post.

This, however, jumped out at me, perhaps becaus3e I was talking with a friend who had been a few states south and west of here, who said wild pigs were everywhere...there. He saw them as a potential food source in tough times, but this presents a different face:

Pigs are seen as a possible intermediate host that can help in that adaptation because the epithelial cells in pigs' trachea can be infected by both avian and human flu. Where, in the event of co-infection, viral reassortment might occur.

145 posted on 01/24/2012 11:52:06 PM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: James Oscar
Her fixation on the use of neuriminidase inhibitors on HIV patients with the flu is based on the known science that neuriminidase increase HIV mutation. Which in a sick patient with coughing, sneezing etc. seems, to MA, insane.

It is not just the increase in mutation, but the neuraminidase inhibitors would not be in use if the flu virus wasn't present. Both the HIV and Flu variant together with increased mutation rates in the HIV present an opportunity for the sort of recombinant development which would present a 'superbug', an HIV variant which would be more contagious, and could cause the cytokine storms she describes.

Why out of Egypt?

Not just the flu, but the sexual attitudes toward young men in islam, and the 'silent' HIV progress through that population increase the chance of both being in the same patient at the same time...

This is a frightening prospect, if it occurs.

146 posted on 01/25/2012 1:33:32 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: flutters

Thank you,

That is a great resource to have.


147 posted on 01/25/2012 7:21:41 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: flutters
Even though I have spent several years writing about those days and what she accomplished in those dramatic 11 days of posting, it is a little breathtaking to see it laid out so linear.

I did not realize others were archiving the SARS threads on FR and the remarkable transformation that continues to this day.

Thanks again

148 posted on 01/25/2012 7:26:14 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: PA Engineer
Yes,

On face value it could be just another of many EOTWAWKI predictions found on the Internet, but when you know of her history with SARS and Ebola - it has to give you pause. Or at least it did with me.

I am amazed to this day as to how she, having been long retired from Epidemiological field work, predicted the host vector of Ebola - litteraly from her library chair on an old WebTv.

Cool stuff.

149 posted on 01/25/2012 7:32:27 AM PST by James Oscar
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To: PA Engineer

It seems excessive to me. I am also curious as to why the world has concentrated so many resources and such a state-of-the-art viral outbreak reporting network in a place like Egypt.

If you go to sites like FluTrackers, there are so many eyes on that geographical area and so many rapid response reporting mechanisms - it just seems out of place.

Very odd...


150 posted on 01/25/2012 7:39:22 AM PST by James Oscar
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