The Lethality of Shootings in Wisconsin

Gun Watch ^ | 13 September, 2014 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

How many people who are deliberately shot survive, compared to those who are shot and killed?  Some early work on this subject was done decades ago.    In 1985, Cook found that about 15% of assault linked gunshot victims that were known to police, died.  That would be a ratio of 5.67 to one.

A recent study by the Urban Institute(pdf) helps to shed some light on this ratio.  It gives fairly precise figures for firearm assault injuries that are reported by hospitals, for Black males 15-34.

By finding the ACS numbers for the population of 15-34 year old Black males in Wisconsin, we can determine the number of assaultive gunshot victims that were reported by hospitals.    The population  number, according to ACS estimates, is 16.5% of the Wisconsin black population, or 59,259.   This matches well with the 2010 census figures of 59,522.  The number of assaultive gunshot victims then comes to .59259 x 554.4 or 307.   The article points out that 6.5% of these hospitalizations ended with the victim dying, so the non-fatal hospital reports are .935 x 307 or 287.

With a little digging, I found the National Violent Death Reporting System has Wisconsin firearms homicides listed for 2010.   It only has this data for 18 states, and Wisconsin is one of them. It lists 37 Black male homicides victims from intentional gunfire in 2010 aged 15-34.   The non-Hispanic White and Hispanic male fatality numbers for the age group were both less than 10, so they were not available.  Together, they were only 13.

We now have a workable ratio for non fatal to fatal shootings recorded by  hospitals, or lethality of assaultive shootings.   It is 287 to 37, or 7.76 to one.   That is in the ball park of what Cook reported in 1985   However, this is a limited slice of the population.   It is not hard to believe that older groups would have different results.

Young Black males are the group most involved in crimes, but young people are more likely to survive trauma. Over 30 of the young Black male victims were in Milwaukee.

I was a little surprised at the numbers.   As most shootings involve handguns, I expected a higher number of survivors.    Talking to knowledgeable friends, most thought the ration would be closer to 10-1.   One thought he had read of military studies with the 1-10 ratio.


There are uncertainties.   These results are only from Wisconsin, but the Wisconsin fatality percentage (6.5% once the hospital is reached) is listed as the same as the national percentage.

Some people may choose not to be treated for minor gunshot wounds.  I suspect the number is small.   Similarly, some murder victims may not be found.  Again, I suspect the number is small.

While not definitive, I find this ratio to be interesting.  All it really says, is that if you are a young Black male in Milwaukee, and are shot, your chances of survival are about 8-1.

©2014 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
Link to Gun Watch

[marktwain]

I will explore this issue further.

[JRandomFreeper]

Looks like 'don't get shot' is still sound advice.

/johnny

[LukeL]

I have heard that if you arrive in the ER with a stable BP and heart rhythm you have a greater than a 95% chance of surviving to discharge.

[dadfly]

bookmark

[PAR35]

Is the conclusion, then, that the percentage of fatalities drops when the gun is held sideways ‘gangsta style’ instead of with the grip down and the barrel on top?

[Sherman Logan]

The chance of survival has probably gone up a good bit since 1985. Trauma medicine has gotten a lot better.

Both the aggravated assault and murder rates have declined since then, but the murder rate has gone down more, which to me implies a higher survival rate for a given number of assaults.

[marktwain]

I intend to write about that. I have been gathering data.

[Sherman Logan]

Good luck. Tough to compare data over time, as definitions of crimes change. Which I’m sure you’ve already discovered.

[marktwain]

You are certainly correct. But there is some data out there. I think it can give us a value that is useful.

[MCF]

In the past many criminal types carried cheaper, smaller caliber pistols, “ Saturday Night Specials”. Now they carry more powerful and lethal weapons..

[clee1]

That is a pretty good percentage estimate, based on my years as an ER nurse.

If you haven’t bled out by the time you hit the door, you are almost certain to survive.

That’s why I carry 147gr Federal JSTs in my carry piece. If I shoot you, you WILL bleed out before getting to the hospital, and likely before the ambulance gets there.

DRT = Dead Right There.

[clee1]

HSTs.... I really have to learn to proofread.

[SWAMPSNIPER]

I’m too old to hunt but stuff I shot most often stayed shot.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

First, complements on statistical analysis. You are getting quite good at this.

Second, new word, “assaultive”. It seems straightforward, but makes me immediately think of the other stat: “assailant known to victim.”

If they know each other, I would suspect that the shooting would be physically closer and more likely to result in homicide, instead of, for example, a gang drive by on another gang.

[TurboZamboni]

[clee1]

That would be a fair choice, but I prefer my .45 ammo to be in the 200+ grain category.