NH Primary Predictions (Trump Wins, but by how much?)

The latest Polls and Last Night's Debate ^ | 2016-02-07 | parksstp

[parksstp]

People laughed at me when I made my IA predictions and said Trump was capped at 27%. Lo and behold I was right. And that IA map trend foreshadowed things to come in SC if the race contenders don't shrink.

But NH is a different state with a lot more liberal/moderate RINOs and Independents that lean liberal but vote in the GOP primary for candidates like McCain, Romney, Huntsman, etc.

So here's an easy to comprehend breakdown of what is going to happen on Tuesday night.

[parksstp]

The easiest method to use is to work "backwards" because information at the lower end is more certain than the upper end.

Carly/Carson/Gilmore: (5%) -Even ABC didn't think Carson was still in the race as they virtually ignored him for most of the debate. I'm no Carly fan, but at least she's been actively campaigning in NH and had she been on stage maybe Hillary Clinton would've been mentioned and attacked more than last night. Nevertheless, they probably won't comprise more than 5% of the NH vote, and that's including the handful of people who know who the heck Jim Gilmore is.

Christie/Bush/Kasich (40%) - Last night's debate was make or break for these guys. Had Rubio not stumbled and unified the Establishment, they'd pretty much all be toast. But that didn't happen. Kasich is apparently where Huntsman was 4 years ago in the polls and Bush is close behind. Christie was lagging despite the Union Leader endorsement, but after the assault he put in Rubio last night, it's almost certain that he will at least get to double digits with the rest of them. And that's the problem. None of these guys have nowhere to go after NH so taking down Rubio as important as it was, won't be good enough. Had Rubio consolidated the Establishment vote, the 3 Governors may have combined for as high as 30% on Tuesday, but now it looks more likely that they will take at least 40% with all 3 of them hovering around 13% plus or minus a few points. In this situation, I don't see what difference it makes to be the lead Governor here unless one of them tops Rubio.

Rubio - He blew it, no way around to say it. Rubio had the best chance to jump into the mid-upper 20's had he consolidated the Establishment vote. But now it's a cluster. He could still probably finish ahead of the 3 Gov's or slip into the same percentages with them. I'm guessing 15% is his floor where one of the Govs may or may not catch him for 3rd.

So that leaves 40% of the vote to decide between Trump and Cruz, meaning the first one to 20% wins.

Cruz largely avoided the Rubio assault last night and nobody really attacked him because his voters are not the same for the Establshment. A good showing for Cruz would be to pick up at least 70% of Santorum voters and 50% of Ron Paul supporters from the 2012 results which would get him to around 18% and clear 2nd. But because it looks like whoever can post 20% will win, there is a slight chance Cruz can slip through and win in an upset. If that happened, it would be a historic upset and I don't think the margin would be more than a handful of votes.

That leaves Trump. After assigning all the numbers, I see Trump winning the NH Primary with about 22% of the vote. He could get to 25% if Cruz fails to clear the field for a solid 2nd, but I think 25% is his cap. This is why that debate for Rubio was so devestating last night. Trump largely stayed out of the fray but some of his answers were horrid such as on eminent domain, forgetting that there's $350B in Medicaid already taking care of the indigent, and his cheap shot at Cruz in the end in his closing statement that was pretty cowardly.

But NH is a liberal/moderate state. And for those of you into facts, the last time a GOP Candidate won a contested NH Primary AND the Presidency was in 1988 with Bush 41. The last time a Democratic Candidate won a contested Dem Primary AND the Presicdency was Jimmy Carter in 1976! So this thing about NH picking President may be over-rated because Obama, GWB, and Clinton all lost their contested NH Primaries.

To Recap: Trump 22% Cruz: 18% Rubio: 15% Kasich/Bush/Christie: ~40% total Caly/Carson/Gilmore: ~5% total

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Trump 32%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 15%
Christie 12%
Kasich 8%
Carson 7%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 2%

[mouse1]

As long as we keep Trump and Cruz in, it’s ok to me. I don’t trust Rubio or the GOPe and media that is so hellbent on propping him up. The rest of the losers need to go home. Wish Paul would have stayed in alittle longer. He would have been my 3rd choice.

[Sacajaweau]

Trump 35 Cruz 20 Christie 10 Rubio 8 Carson 7 all others 20

[King_Corey]

Last set of pollsters failed in Iowa and over estimated Trump support to equal votes, and underestimated Cruz and the grass roots. Will it be the same thing as last time, I don’t know, but I am sure that Trump isn’t as strong after the loss, and people are talking Cruz more serious.

[Qwackertoo]

Thanks. Interesting on prior NH stats.

[dforest]

No they aren’t Cruz damaged himself in the way he won Iowa. Opened many people’s eyes about his tactics while pretending to be a saint.

[lulu16]

You always amaze me. Thank-you for your analysis. Did you call Cruz for the winner in Iowa or just what his ceiling was.

And how do you think the independents will affect the numbers?

Bookmark for the primary!

[parksstp]

Lol, Carson isn’t getting 7% of the vote in a state he’s done virtually no campaigning. Carly will most likely beat him.

You are severally underestimating Kasich’s strength on the ground in NH. He has campaigned there like McCain as if he’s running for President of NH. He will get at least double digits, the voters aren’t bothered by his amnesty talk because they’re a bunch of libs anyway. Ditto with the Jebster.

I know you’re trying to drag more points for Trump, but just like in IA, they aren’t there. Trump can get as high as 25% and that’s if nobody else crosses 15%, which is possible. But the 30%’s or higher? Unlikely.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Here were my predictions for Iowa:

Cruz 30%
Trump 28%
Rubio 17%
Carson 6%
Huckabee 5%
Rand 4%
Bush 3%
Fiorina 3%
Santorum 2%
Christie 1%
Kasich 1%

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3391360/posts?page=10#10

I am calling it like I see it. I think Christie strips away a lot of support Kasich had going into the debate.

[Pollster1]

1. Trump will under-perform predictions. Reason - Iowa Caucus last minute deciders almost never supported Trump, and I think that will be true in NH. If you like Trump’s style, you already support him. If you don’t like Trump’s style, you are deciding which non-Trump candidate to support. Nothing against Trump, and he’s my #2 choice, but I don’t expect him to surge on election day anywhere.

2. Rubio will finish where expected. His terrible debate performance. His terrible debate performance. His terrible debate performance. His terrible debate performance will hurt him, but his superficial charm will attract a good share of last minute deciders who did not watch.

3. Jeb will finish better than expected. I don’t think NH had enough exposure that he turned off the people who were not watching. He’ll get more than his share of last minute voters, particularly those who think he’s George W. or Daddy Bush.

4. Christie will finish below expectations. His attacks on Rubio were aggressive and well-delivered, but the style is too close to Trump. The people who would like him on style are already Trump supporters.

5. Cruz will surprise us again by getting his voters to the polls. He also didn’t do anything that would seriously offend undecided voters in the last two days before the primary.

6. Carson - I have no idea. Did he handle CNN’s “suspending his campaign” debacle well and show character, or did he make a mistake and show a lack of seriousness by getting into that situation in the first place. Is he amiable and a worthy replacement for the hateful bigot we’re stuck with for 49 more weeks, or is he too gentle for a tough job?

Kasich, Fiorina, and Gilmore are still on the ballot. I will be surprised if they are more than a footnote.

[parksstp]

Dude, stop it, just stop it.

It’s been a week and you still can’t find ONE person willing to come forwrad that will say “Hey I was going to vote for Ben but then the Cruz people told me he was dropping out and I switched to Cruz and got bamboozled”.

Cruz won IA fair and square. Get over it.

[Vigilanteman]

Very sound analysis, but New Hampshire voters aren`t only unpredictable, there is another wildcard: a contested Democrat primary. In 2012, there was no contest and these people felt free to raid the GOP primary and goose the vote total for people like Huntsman and Romney.

This time there could be more of the same if that crowd thinks Bernie has it sewn up or, as may be equally likely, thinks Hillary will win in the end anyway and just don’t want to harm their inevitable party nominee.

How many voters fit this wildcard remains to be seen. We’ll see on Tuesday night.

[parksstp]

HOLD ON!

I just remembered something VERY Important.

NH Polls don’t use voter files. Plus they allow people to vote in their primary if they have the “intention” of claiming residence in the state.

I forgot, Hillar won NH Primary in 2008 Primarily because she bussed in supporters from Mass. I suspect a lot of that will be going on Tuesday for the Dems as well.

Watch those State Lines for charter buses coming into Nashua/Dartmouth/Salem on Tuesday!

[Liz]

Cruz damaged himself in the way he won Iowa. Opened many people/s eyes about his tactics while he was pretending to be a saint.

He made his Christianity a big deal....saying he was strapping on the armor of God....then proceeded to steal votes from Carson.

Ben Carson's wife was at an Iowa caucus when Cruz/s desperate trick to get votes was in play. She asked if she could speak on the subject....she told the caucus goers none of it was true....Carson was still running. Incidentally, Carson won that caucus.

=================================================

Greta V/S is not a Carson supporter.....but she went ballistic when she reported on the Cruz campaign/s intellectually facile response to his critics. ...claiming they used Carson/s own resignations words....when no such words exist.

=====================================

.....reports indicate that the schemers who did this were hired PRECISELY by Cruz b/c they did it before. That Cruz keeps them on his payroll, suggests the report is accurate.

CONCLUSION The evidence is all there for a criminal complaint. Cruz was caught w/ his pants down. Cruz had victory without triumph.

=========================================

Karl Rove, not a Trump fan by any means, explained how the Cruz cheating could have cost Donald the election.

The Cruz Campaign tweeted: Press says Carson is going to take a break...... so tell all the Carson people to campaign with Cruz.

But Rove explains that at 7:53 the Carson people send out a release saying, We/re here. We/re staying in the race. We/re going to New Hampshire and South Carolina.

And at 8:20 Cruz campaign chief Steve King tweets deceptively: It looks like Carson is getting out of the race...... knowing full well this was inaccurate.

Cruz characteristically lies.....said we sent it to our team, insinuating this had to do with sending it out to staff members.

W-r-o-n-g...says Rove. The Cruz team sent this to nearly 1,500 Cruz precinct captains.

Now why does that matter? The gap between Trump and Cruz is 6,239 votes. There are 1,500 precincts. Do the math. If that message cost Carson four votes per precinct to switch to Cruz, then Cruz beats Trump. If opportunistic Cruz hadn/t manipulated those four votes, he/d be the loser.

[Liz]

CRUZ/S WHIRLING DERVISH ROUTINE: He supports it and then votes against it to provide cover for himself. Example: Crux's cloture vote. He pushed for it, then voted to bring it to the floor, then voted against it knowing it was going to pass.

=================================================

SOP for self-serving Cruz---an Ivy League mind at work:

<><> He takes 3-4 positions on an issue.

<><> He then lies in wait to see which position benefits him.

<><> Once the voting stops, he examines which way the political winds are blowing.

<><> He then pulls out a canned excuse to cover his self-serving ***.

==========================================

Globalist Goldman/Sachs (his wife/s employer) must love these Cruz votes.

<><> Cruz voted to fast-track TPP knowing Obama considers TPP central to his presidential legacy and to his foreign policy and economic legacies.

<><> Cruz's vote on the Corker bill is a landmine......Corker rallying the radical left to protect Obama on the $150 billion Iran nuclear deal giveaway.

===========================================

Cruz gets a million dollar loan from G/S ....keeps calling for a 500% increase in H1b work visas...

G/S hires many H-1B visa holders.

American workers DESPISE H1B Visas. A massive expansion of H1Bs puts struggling Americans out of work.

No 'conservative' in their right mind would ever vote for deals which put Americans out of work. Cruz will not change his position on H1B visas....b/c pro-amnesty Goldman Sachs contributed to his 2016 campaign (Cruz's wife is a Goldman Sachs exec).

=================================================

TPP is best understood against the backdrop
of Obama's post-presidential get-rich-quick foundation plans.

NOW ISN'T THIS INTERESTING? few, if any, of the RCEP and
TPP countries contributed to the buck-raking Clinton Foundation.

Looks like the Clintons and Obama divvied up the globe so that each have their own countries in order to collect big buck get-rich-quick foundation donations, honorarium, cosultancies, and int'l insider business deals.

======================================

THE FACTS ARE THESE Obama's trade deal giveaway is a huge scam...best examined against the backdrop of Obama's two tax-exempt foundations (two-that we know of). Obama's priming the pump for donations to his two Foundations.

All of Obama's thinly-veiled actions....

(1) promoting TPA and TPP,

(2) his immigration suck-ups

(3) his non-action WRT ISIS, IRAN....

.....are best understood against the backdrop of Obama's future get-rich-quick plans as an ex-president----more specifically, his two get-rich-quick Foundations (two foundations that we know of).

All these entities control billions of dollars---and Obama is lying-in-wait for his share: foreign donations, lucrative insider trade deals from untapped resources, energy deals, telecom deals, arms sales, consultancies, million dollar honorarium...and so on and so forth.

===================================================

WIKI REFERENCE: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) (Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and the six states with which ASEAN has existing FTAs (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand). RCEP negotiations were formally launched in November 2012 at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia.

[jaydee770]

I think you may be dismissing the politics of the state. Look at who they elect: Socialists dems and gop-e RINOs. That’s what they prefer.

I would bet on the candidates that fit the profile and would expect Rubio/Trump to be close. Bush may even outperform expectations. A conservative like Cruz will be fighting a steep, uphill battle in a state like NH with a near polar opposite political philosophy from the voters.

[parksstp]

Take your Anti-Semitism to another thread Liz. I’m not going to tolerate your BS polluting this thread.

For those unaware, Liz is an Anti-Semite that criticized Cruz for “taking advantage of the goodwill of Arab Christians” and thinks it was great Cruz was booed off stage at this event because Cruz compared the plight of Arab Christians to the plight of the Israelis and that there was common ground and a need to stand with them.

This has been documented in her posting history several times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUtUyPS1etQ

[Lagmeister]

Interesting, you think Cruz is going to shoot from 4th to second and Trump is going to sink 5%. NH ain't IA.

forgetting that there's $350B in Medicaid already taking care of the indigent, and his cheap shot at Cruz in the end in his closing statement that was pretty cowardly.

That is a huge selective nothing-burger. Trump's opening remarks, his position on waterboarding and his assault on the donor audience is the only thing folks will remember - aside from Cruz's waterboarding-is-torture position as he agreed with McLame.

Cruz should have gotten easily 35% or more in IA. He was knotted in a three-way tie instead - all other negatives about Cruz aside. I think Cruz is sliding in NH and the debate helped him not one twit.

[entropy12]

Trump, Cruz, Christie.

I warmed up to donuts after last night’s debate.