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How the USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll ( Trump 48- Clinton 42.6!)
LA Times ^ | 11/5/2016 | Staff

Posted on 11/05/2016 4:02:15 AM PDT by GilGil

Paul Manafort said in a tweet yesterday that by the end of the weekend Trump will have the count for 270+ electoral votes. You can also assume that Trump is above 50%. This poll assumes 4.2% black support for Trump. In reality 15-25% blacks support Trump.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016polls; clinton; election; trump
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To: Jimmy The Snake

I doubt there will be any disruption. Once Trump wins, law enforcement will know they have 100% of his support and that he is the new sheriff. Whoever thinks they can disrupt will be met with very strong force. No worries. The oppo are all cowards. They will go away.


21 posted on 11/05/2016 4:30:58 AM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorabus Unum)
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To: Jimmy The Snake

“U will need that propane for the few days of disruption that will occur after the election”

Since the locals can’t vote for president anyway they don’t care. The people that do care are the military guys and they are pro Trump.


22 posted on 11/05/2016 4:33:28 AM PDT by Fai Mao (PIAPS for Prison 2016)
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To: GilGil; All
Enthusiasm is great, but Trump is not President until he is sworn in. When dealing with criminals (democrats), there are too many unknowns which affect results.

Let's not jinx this election with premature celebrations.

23 posted on 11/05/2016 4:38:13 AM PDT by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common any more.)
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To: Cobra64

Let’s not jinx this election with premature celebrations.
___________________

Where do you get the idea anyone is celebrating?


24 posted on 11/05/2016 4:39:30 AM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorabus Unum)
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To: Helicondelta

Helicon, compare that graph to this one from 2012 - https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012

Very interesting?


25 posted on 11/05/2016 4:39:33 AM PDT by Nicojones
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To: GilGil

I like the way you think ;)


26 posted on 11/05/2016 4:47:48 AM PDT by Catmom (We're all gonna get the punishment only some of us deserve.)
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To: Catmom

Yeah, they’ll be cutting their middle fingers and tasting the pain!


Weirdest election Evah!


27 posted on 11/05/2016 4:52:01 AM PDT by Flick Lives (Voting Trump. It is not just a vote, it is a chance to burn down the rotten Uniparty.)
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To: GilGil

Should Trump win, I think the greatest comfort will come from knowing a Clinton will never run for office again.

And should the FBI and Trump justice department go forward with prosecuting all of the people who emailed classified documents back and forth through unsecured email systems in violation of the law, we could see dozens, if not SCORES of people barred by law from ever holding public office again.

Unfortunately I think Obama will have no choice but to issue pardons in order to ensure there will be enough Democrat politicians left to fill a room in DC.


28 posted on 11/05/2016 4:53:25 AM PDT by pie_eater
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To: GilGil

Dupe? http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3489489/posts


29 posted on 11/05/2016 4:56:27 AM PDT by sargon (The Revolution is ON! Vote Trump!)
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To: pie_eater

He can’t pardon in advance. If the conviction occurs after January 20, 2017, all bets are off.


30 posted on 11/05/2016 4:56:55 AM PDT by Nicojones
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To: GilGil

Stephanpoulis wife says they are moving to Sydney.

Great news.


31 posted on 11/05/2016 4:57:53 AM PDT by anton
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To: sargon

This kind of news can’t be celebrated enough.


32 posted on 11/05/2016 4:57:59 AM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorabus Unum)
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To: anton

I know. The sooner the better. I pity those poor Australians.


33 posted on 11/05/2016 4:58:44 AM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorabus Unum)
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To: GilGil

I’m not counting any bridges not yet crossed but I am amazed at the utter lack of imagination, innovation, variety, etc. in the Hillary camp.

Granted, they have a meager supply of raw materials. Hillary has been on the national poltical scene for longer than the terms of Bush 41, Reagan, Carter, Ford and Nixon laid end to end. If she had anything original, profound, humorous or insightful to say would we not have heard it by now?

Any sentient candidate whose own campaign managers referred to the candidate as robotic would sack them yet Hillary keeps them on staff...maybe because it’s the truth and she doesn’t care.

It has been delicious to watch all the pundits do a collective pratfall where their received wisdom regarding advertising expenditures. Hillary has spent a fortune but because she and her managers know only brute force they have been running the same 2 or 3 ads in heavy rotation. Whatever impact these ads had (like the trivial and silly clothing & tie one) long ago dissipated. The repetition is now squarely in the realm of boredom, annoyance and even resentment ie working against the candidate.

But when you are out of ideas big and small, you act....robotically.


34 posted on 11/05/2016 5:01:08 AM PDT by relictele (Principiis obsta & Finem respice - Resist The Beginnings & Consider The Ends.)
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To: Nicojones

“He can’t pardon in advance. If the conviction occurs after January 20, 2017, all bets are off.”

Unfortunately, I think you are incorrect. Nixon was never convicted (or even charged) with anything, and Ford pardoned him.


35 posted on 11/05/2016 5:08:58 AM PDT by Aunt Polgara
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To: Tai_Chung
Trump was mostly even or ahead during the almost 4 months of tracking data, but the election was supposed to be over in favor of Clinton.

This is the biggest bit of misinformation the mainstream media will have to answer for after Tuesday. To so blatantly over-sample certain groups to get the desired results reeks of collusion and corruption.

36 posted on 11/05/2016 5:24:53 AM PDT by Kharis13 (That noise you hear is our Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.)
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To: Nicojones

See Murphy v. Ford. 1975. Established that Constitution permits pre-indictment pardons.


37 posted on 11/05/2016 5:31:02 AM PDT by donozark (It is true after all. Hillary Clinton really IS the Fouke Monster)
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To: relictele

I believe had she had an original thought, it would have long ago died of loneliness.


38 posted on 11/05/2016 5:31:22 AM PDT by j.argese (/s tags: If you have a mind unnecessary. If you're a cretin it really doesn't matter, does it?)
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To: Kharis13
The LA times daybreak poll is different than most because they are polling the same exact people every day. It isn't different samples, it's the same sample over and over. Even if their turnout model is incorrect the trend should be correct, and that trend is very favorable to Trump.

The interesting point will be, after the votes are tabulated, how the models used by the other polls hold up.

39 posted on 11/05/2016 5:31:44 AM PDT by USNBandit (Sarcasm engaged at all times)
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To: GilGil

I keep saying 400+ evs. Trump will be the first Republican to win MN since Nixon 44 years ago.


40 posted on 11/05/2016 5:39:13 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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