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Tropical Storms Ana & Bill
NOAA/NHC ^ | 15 August 2009 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/15/2009 3:31:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The 2009 Atlantic tropical season is heating up with Tropical Storm Ana forming about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and Invest 90, a large Cape Verde system showing substantial promise for development. Currently, neither of the two systems pose an immediate threat to land. Long term forecasts indicate potential threat to Florida, while a third tropical wave is poised off of the So. Florida coast.

Tropical Storm Ana

Public Advisories Updated every six hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data W Central Atlantic and East Caribbean

Buoy Data Florida

Storm 02 (Ana) Model Tracks

Storm 90 (Invest 90) Model Tracks



Satellite & Radar Images

Ana Visible Satellite Still Image

Ana IR Image

Ana WV Image

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Weather
KEYWORDS: ana; atlantic; bill; tropical
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To: NautiNurse

Please push this way, we need the rain.


51 posted on 08/15/2009 8:18:03 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SE Mom

That’s very good news - tell him - way to go!!!


52 posted on 08/15/2009 8:23:21 AM PDT by Freedom'sWorthIt (Obama's Deathcare ---- many will suffer and/or die unnecessarily.)
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To: NautiNurse
The scary part is that Ana--and the tropical depression that could become Bill--are on almost EXACTLY the same storm track. The possibility of central Florida being hit by Ana as a hurricane followed by Bill as a hurricane just a few days later is definitely not far-fetched.
53 posted on 08/15/2009 8:59:44 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: GOPJ

I had to move to the submerged bowl called New Orleans in order to find a job. I will have to watch ever more closely now. Not that I can actually leave if one comes - I am on one of the teams at the hospital.


54 posted on 08/15/2009 9:02:47 AM PDT by Ingtar (Americans have truly let America down. A sad day.)
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To: NautiNurse

It does look that way... nice to know your there to keep us posted on storms.


55 posted on 08/15/2009 9:11:35 AM PDT by GOPJ ("Fishy rumors posters" Check 'em out:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2311664/posts)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the heads up!! :-) You always stay so on top of things!


56 posted on 08/15/2009 9:13:09 AM PDT by pamlet
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To: GreenLanternCorps

Haa, haa, they brought him out to be the Secretary of State, if you don’t believe me, ask Hillary. ;^)


57 posted on 08/15/2009 9:18:13 AM PDT by BushCountry (They say the world has become too complex for simple answers. They are wrong.)
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks so much NN right now this one is pointed directly at us which means it will probably go to either side of us but we should get some of it.
58 posted on 08/15/2009 9:39:43 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE--GO SARAHCUDA !!)
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To: Ingtar

You will be in my prayers when one comes your way...


59 posted on 08/15/2009 9:43:25 AM PDT by GOPJ ("Fishy rumors posters" Check 'em out:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2311664/posts)
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To: Islander7

Thanks for the new tropical storm website.


60 posted on 08/15/2009 9:43:59 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: Elle Bee; NautiNurse; rodguy911; blam
Thanks Nauti .. can't help but remember the vicious August Andrew chapter.

Dear God .. I hadn't even thought about them and natural disasters. To even consider their behavior in a bad hurricane makes me physically ill.

Can't you just foretell their moves ? The new ultimatums and policies ? It would be too easy for them to predictably slip right into the socialist/poor underclass and wealth redistribution remedies they crave, while pouring on the Bush/Brownie bashing to the maxx at every turn, the doofus Gibbs' wiseass snarks. I can't STAND these people!

Pray .. pray .. pray bad storms away from the US and from causing horrible damage .. Lord, please keep them away.


61 posted on 08/15/2009 9:47:09 AM PDT by STARWISE (The Art & Science Institute of Chicago Politics NE Div: now open at the White House)
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To: NautiNurse

Worse, it’s a free miles fare. I don’t know what they do about those!


62 posted on 08/15/2009 9:53:23 AM PDT by brytlea (Jesus loves me, this I know.)
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To: STARWISE

We are getting a good bit of rain and wind today but ana may do more, we shall see.


63 posted on 08/15/2009 10:22:33 AM PDT by rodguy911 (HOME OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE--GO SARAHCUDA !!)
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To: NautiNurse
I was just thinking the same thing when I checked the NHC's advisory page this morning: here we go. And just two days ago they wrote off Ana as a dissipated remnant. Now TD2 is following like a puppy and forecast to become a Cat 1 off Puerto Rico about the time Ana is somewhere off the Florida coast. It'll be (as Arte Johnson would say) verrrry interesting here in Alabama next weekend.


64 posted on 08/15/2009 10:38:41 AM PDT by Viking2002 (Ted Nugent for Attorney General '12. You Know You Want It.)
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To: NautiNurse
Here in Punta Gorda today, we are celebrating our recovery from Charley's devastation 5 years ago. Jeb is here- just as he was so often while we were torn apart. We have come back better than ever- but I'm not sure we are ready for another one- much less 2!
65 posted on 08/15/2009 10:53:54 AM PDT by Goldwater Girl
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To: SE Mom
Wow .. fabulous ... thank God! So happy for you and for him.

And Charley, Frances, Jeanne .. turned my life literally upside down .. had to leave the Sunshine State after 30+ years. Just couldn't take it anymore, especially after having lost all but my life in Andrew. Jeanne was the capper for me .. I was out of there and in Illinois, 5 weeks later.

2004 hurricanes - click for large graphic

As always, prayers for all at potential risk of hurricane fury.

66 posted on 08/15/2009 11:18:21 AM PDT by STARWISE (The Art & Science Institute of Chicago Politics NE Div: now open at the White House)
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To: NautiNurse
I was just thinking the same thing when I checked the NHC's advisory page this morning: here we go. And just two days ago they wrote off Ana as a dissipated remnant. Now TD2 is following like a puppy and forecast to become a Cat 1 off Puerto Rico about the time Ana is somewhere off the Florida coast. It'll be (as Arte Johnson would say) verrrry interesting here in Alabama next weekend.


67 posted on 08/15/2009 11:19:51 AM PDT by Viking2002 (Ted Nugent for Attorney General '12. You Know You Want It.)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks. We sure could use a rainmaker down here . I better be careful what I wish for though, I guess. Dolly did me no damage but I’ll never forgive that tropical storm the year before that killed my almond tree:’)


68 posted on 08/15/2009 11:42:37 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: STARWISE

Right now I am more concerned about a great big blob just south of Fla then Ana. That blob is a lot closer to me then Ana.


69 posted on 08/15/2009 11:55:27 AM PDT by jpsb
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To: NautiNurse

Gosh, we can’t keep meeting like this. LOL

Thank you for once again serving as sentinel and harbinger of things to come. You do us all an invaluable service.


70 posted on 08/15/2009 12:09:18 PM PDT by miele man
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the heads up. Since we often end up opening shelters here for the Red Cross, I always try to keep aware of what’s happening..... especially since I am just a worker bee, and don’t get much forewarning from the RC offices.
8-)


71 posted on 08/15/2009 12:32:53 PM PDT by Grammy (politics... poli ( many ) tics ( blood suckers ))
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To: Goldwater Girl

Here in Ocala we are protected by being in the middle of t he state, still got a lot of damage to trees in 04 when 3 storms went through the county. In 05 my timeshare in Navarre Beach was demolished by Dennis, they still haven’t sold the property.


72 posted on 08/15/2009 1:00:56 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla ("men of intemperate minds cannot be free. Their passions forge their fetters." -- Edmund Burke)
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To: NautiNurse

By the looks of things you will be busy here through Labor Day at least. Killer Bill has my name on it, literally.


73 posted on 08/15/2009 1:03:16 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla ("men of intemperate minds cannot be free. Their passions forge their fetters." -- Edmund Burke)
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To: NautiNurse

Thank you for your ping and in advance for all of your hard work you put in every year.


74 posted on 08/15/2009 1:28:13 PM PDT by nuclady
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To: Viking2002

The 5 day guesstimation is for Ana to be 70 mph storm Thursday am.

Anyone want to bet its a Hurricane before then?


75 posted on 08/15/2009 1:37:59 PM PDT by Islander7 (If you want to anger conservatives, lie to them. If you want to anger liberals, tell them the truth.)
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To: brytlea

While it’s very hard to get a seat with the travel awards, they are otherwise usually treated like a full fare ticket for itinerary changes.


76 posted on 08/15/2009 1:41:11 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; ...
Tropical Storm Bill has formed west of TS Ana.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

77 posted on 08/15/2009 1:46:33 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: All

EAST of TS Ana. Sorry about that!


78 posted on 08/15/2009 1:48:18 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: NautiNurse

Good news! Thanks. :)


79 posted on 08/15/2009 1:49:18 PM PDT by brytlea (Jesus loves me, this I know.)
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To: NautiNurse

Hmmm.....looks like Bill is tracking just to the north of Ana’s track and about 36 hours behind.

Look out Florida!!


80 posted on 08/15/2009 1:52:19 PM PDT by Islander7 (If you want to anger conservatives, lie to them. If you want to anger liberals, tell them the truth.)
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To: NautiNurse

Early season thanks!


81 posted on 08/15/2009 1:55:47 PM PDT by Eaker (The Two Loudest Sounds in the World.....Bang When it should have been Click and the Reverse.)
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To: NautiNurse

Greetings, NautiNurse and the rest of the storm watchers. Ichabod1, Veteran of Hurricane Ike, reporting for duty from Houston, TX.


82 posted on 08/15/2009 1:58:37 PM PDT by ichabod1 (I am rolling over in my grave and I am not even dead yet (GOP Poet))
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To: jpsb; rodguy911; NautiNurse; All
Central Florida Hurricane Center - 2:45 PM Update 15 August 2009

Tropical Depression 3 has formed from what was 90L, and Ana Holds as a low end Tropical Storm.

Ana is moving west, ahead of Ana is a bit of westerly shear, this is taking some of the moisture north and west of it, and also is clearing the dry air for TD#3 behind it. The center is also exposed again. Ana and TD#3 appear to "touch" with the outflow on the visible satellite.

Ana will probably remain weak while the shear affects it. From studying the water vapor and some model runs, it looks like Ana will be more on the southerly side of the forecast cone. This means that it will likely move over the Caribbean islands, giving them lots of rain and some wind, but at the same time prevent it from strengthening. With the dry air, shear, and "grasping" aspect of TD#3 which may catch up to it, Ana may very well fall apart again.

That said the most likely future for Ana is a weak tropical storm, how weak depends on how much interaction it has with the Caribbean islands. It appears, right now, that it'll go south of south Florida, barely.

If it weakens much more it may go much further south and west (more on the southern cusp of the cone). If it were to err, I think the NHC may be too far north. Still the uncertainty exists, and I think the cone in general is valid. Intensity completely depends on how well Ana fights the shear and the interaction with land.

Those in South Florida/Keys will want to watch and be ready. There is a good, but not great, chance that they may have some affect from the system. The small size and complex situation make it difficult to predict. I'm not very confident about it right now.

Other indicators for Ana, include changes in the forward motion of TD#3, the location of the Upper Level Low near the Bahamas, and the wave off the Florida Keys (Which itself may be worth watching as it moves into the very soup hot Gulf) Ana is also elongated slightly north/south.

In short keep watch, Ana may well stay south of Florida (southern part of the cone). Those in the Leewards will still want to prepare for a Tropical Storm (Which is to say expect a windy nasty day). Ana is a small storm so if conditions around it change, it could wind up quickly. It will be vital to watch it over the next several days.

TD#3 right now has the better chance to be slightly northward in the Islands. The cone for this one is dead on, I think. Right now somewhere along the east coast is the most likely spot for TD#3.

The wave now coming off Africa may be yet another storm to watch in the next several days.

83 posted on 08/15/2009 2:01:05 PM PDT by STARWISE (The Art & Science Institute of Chicago Politics NE Div: now open at the White House)
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To: NautiNurse

That’s great, just when I have to move to South Florida because my law school moved down there from Michigan, a tropical storm might hit.


84 posted on 08/15/2009 2:04:51 PM PDT by ConservativeTeen (Proud Right Wing Extremist)
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To: NautiNurse

Dry air, wind shear and water temperature conditions are far from ideal for strong or persistent development for all three storms at this point, TD3 has a huge clud mass but a bifurcated center currently; the nearest tropical wave brought heavy rains to the Dominican Republic yesterday and could add to Florida’s generous total for this year but I wouldn’t batten down just yet.

At best, this is a relief from the boredom at the hurricane center.


85 posted on 08/15/2009 2:14:05 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, then writes again.)
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To: dirtboy

More like life-support, there’s a lot of pressure on the met folks to name one by the middle of this month.


86 posted on 08/15/2009 2:16:51 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, then writes again.)
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To: ConservativeTeen
Welcome to the Sunshine State!

Ha--I would take law school any day over my Saturday challenges with a rambunctious puppy, two angry cats, and a miserable pneumonia patient in the house. No wonder I can't type and spell today.

87 posted on 08/15/2009 2:27:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: ConservativeTeen

88 posted on 08/15/2009 2:31:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: RayChuang88

They are not on the same track except by a few hundred miles, the fact that the larger storm is following close to leading one argues against them combining forces, rather they will begin to compete for the favorable conditions with the stronger (lower-pressure) center winning out.

The most important thing is the water temp below the storms and the wind shear at the tops of the thunderheads; these are determined by upper air circulation and current variables.

Beyond filling the tank and laying in some grub, I wouldn’t rush around just yet.


89 posted on 08/15/2009 2:33:48 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, then writes again.)
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To: rodguy911

It would help if you said where here is.


90 posted on 08/15/2009 2:35:45 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, then writes again.)
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To: Old Professer
I wouldn’t batten down just yet.

Makes sense to me. If I lived in Tennessee, I wouldn't batten down for a tropical storm either. Those of us who live in Florida need to pay attention to Atlantic tropical systems.

91 posted on 08/15/2009 2:36:17 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: Islander7

wonder whatever happened to that guy?


92 posted on 08/15/2009 2:37:41 PM PDT by Armedanddangerous (I think youre so full of inconsolable rage you don't care who you hurt)
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To: rodguy911

Hiya rodguy! So your tropical wave is a big rain producer. We had one too the other day, but all the rain went north of us.


93 posted on 08/15/2009 2:39:08 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: Armedanddangerous

Chief bartender at the White House?


94 posted on 08/15/2009 2:40:18 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: ichabod1

Great to see you back for another season! Is everything back to baseline for you post-Ike?


95 posted on 08/15/2009 2:43:12 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama: A day without TOTUS is like a day without sunshine)
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To: NautiNurse

well, they apparently dont do background checks there anymore, so he could fit right in.

I wonder how the Tampa area is going to fare from these storms? I have two relatives living thereabouts.


96 posted on 08/15/2009 2:43:54 PM PDT by Armedanddangerous (I think youre so full of inconsolable rage you don't care who you hurt)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the ping... been wondering when this season was going to get started.

I always worry for Texas when they have a bad drought. Nature has a way of bringing things back to the average.. what better way than a tropical system with 10-20” of rain!


97 posted on 08/15/2009 2:45:25 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim
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To: NautiNurse

Tropical Storm - Damage Potential: Minimal

Whoever wrote that wasn’t in Houston for Tropical Storm Allison.


98 posted on 08/15/2009 2:45:29 PM PDT by Rocky (OBAMA: Succeeding where bin Laden failed.)
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To: Islander7

The latest Quickscat (5:00pm)shows very poor center activity and max winds under 30 for Ana while Bill has more activity and winds of 40+; both are a long way from CAT1 at this time.

Don’t know what’s holding Ana up.


99 posted on 08/15/2009 2:51:42 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, then writes again.)
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To: NautiNurse

Yes, I was very fortunate. Rode out the storm just fine. Power was off for two weeks. Found a friends apartment that somehow avoided the power outage and stayed there.

I’ve been starting to lay in some canned goods but that’s about it for storm prep. I’m not going to go the generator route — decided it’s just too much money for too little usage. But I realize now I need to do better with emergency light. The few flashlights and tea lights I had were not sufficient.

It was exciting to be one of the ones who was posting and posting that night until whamm-o, off the air for the duration.


100 posted on 08/15/2009 2:57:17 PM PDT by ichabod1 (I am rolling over in my grave and I am not even dead yet (GOP Poet))
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