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Intrade: Obama 65%, Romney 35%: how come? splain it to me pls
intrade ^ | october 17, 2012 | intrade

Posted on 10/17/2012 8:44:43 AM PDT by beebuster2000

I dont get it. Intrade saying Obama a prohibitive favorite. not even close. why?


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To: beebuster2000

Intrade? Is George Soros or one of his lackies involved in this outfit?


61 posted on 10/17/2012 10:08:29 AM PDT by kenmcg (t)
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To: beebuster2000
There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html



62 posted on 10/17/2012 10:08:37 AM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: HerrBlucher
It's the money, enough of it will buy anything. I can't understand the outcry, there are people that will sell their soul for money.
63 posted on 10/17/2012 10:10:02 AM PDT by ANGGAPO (Layte Gulf Beach Club)
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To: BreezyDog

That’s what I thought until I read the fine print!


64 posted on 10/17/2012 10:13:15 AM PDT by gr8eman (Ron Swanson for President!)
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To: beebuster2000

Maybe Soros is pumping some money in to fool idiots who follow Intrade.


65 posted on 10/17/2012 10:20:31 AM PDT by kabar
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To: justice14

Because its nitpicking to say that Justice Roberts struck down the individual mandate, when what he actually did was to find a way to uphold it while at the same time, technically, striking it down. Intrade was wrong, the individual mandate was upheld, but as a tax.


66 posted on 10/17/2012 10:21:22 AM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: ConservativeVoice

Two words... george soros


67 posted on 10/17/2012 10:40:45 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: beebuster2000

Look at how accurate intrade was on the obamacare SCOTUS decision. Bwahahahahahahahaha!

LLS


68 posted on 10/17/2012 10:42:25 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: ncalburt

Intrade has over 100,000 registered users just in the U.S. alone. If the IRS is coming after me for my losses on Intrade, then they are going to have a heck of a lot of people to round up throughout the country! That would be an absolutely amazing thing to do, since the legal status of Intrade has never been clarified by the government and most people see it as legal. The only regulation that the U.S. government has actually passed is a restriction from using credit cards on Intrade from the U.S.

I know that many on here are unhappy about Intrade’s skewing left, but it is a legit company that is frequently referenced in all sorts of political discourse and their users are in fact overwhelmingly American, not just foreigners. Let’s keep at least a little balance here and not let our hatred of Intrade run away with us.


69 posted on 10/17/2012 12:43:09 PM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
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To: FenwickBabbitt

There is no reason to hate Intrade.

It is a private company that offers a straightforward service at a transparent price.

If you want that service and are willing to pay their price for it, buy.

If you don’t want their service at the price offered, don’t buy.

Why make it any more complicated than that?


70 posted on 10/17/2012 1:08:01 PM PDT by epic stache
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To: epic stache

I’m not quite sure I get what your criticism is exactly. I didn’t think that I was complicating any issue. I was merely responding to the poster who said that the IRS was personally coming after me now for having been unsuccessfully involved in Intrade in the past. I think that that poster was having a visceral response to Intrade’s favoring Obama and therefore was exaggerating the topic greatly by suggesting that our government was going to go after the 100,000+ Intrade users in the US (even though this has never happened once in the company’s 13 year history).

By “our” hatred, I simply meant “we Romney supporters.” I think this thread more than shows that there is a lot of resentment of Intrade on here because of the advantage that traders on Intrade give to Obama. As I mentioned in my first post on the thread, I think that Intrade really indicates nothing about the election, so people need to calm down about it, in my opinion.


71 posted on 10/17/2012 1:27:32 PM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
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To: beebuster2000

“None of us are as dumb as all of us.”


72 posted on 10/17/2012 1:36:05 PM PDT by CodeToad (Padme: "So this is how liberty dies... with thunderous applause.")
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To: FenwickBabbitt

I did not intend to imply that you were finding fault with Intrade.

Others were and my defense of Intrade was directed at them.

I apologize for the confusion.

As I expect you know, Intrade does not set the odds. They simply operate the market and the odds result from the traders’ actions.

If people think that the price of Romney predictions underestimates the likelihood that he will prevail, then all this means is that they disagree with most of the traders.

That is what speculators call “opportunity”.


73 posted on 10/17/2012 1:51:43 PM PDT by epic stache
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To: epic stache

Oh, OK. Then we agree. Sorry about that then.

Just to note too about the main topic of the thread: Romney’s overall odds on Intrade seem to be fairly closely tied to his odds of winning Ohio on the site. I think that’s where the snag is. Since Intrade is currently giving FL and (by a very small margin) VA to Romney, I would think his overall odds would go up if polls start consistently showing him winning in Ohio, since if he wins those three states he’ll pretty much have the whole election in the bag. While without Ohio it will be a hard road for him, and the Intraders know that.


74 posted on 10/17/2012 2:05:38 PM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
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