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GREAT NEWS FOR CRUZ FOLKS! (Trumpeters free to disbelieve it if they want.)
from "a friend." ;-)

Posted on 01/30/2016 5:17:52 AM PST by dangus

Reading some threads, I see Cruz folks starting to sound like they're starting to buy the Trump Big Lie that Trump "won" the debate, and knocked Cruz out. Don't believe it for a second.

I can't be specific what I'm referring to. We'll just have to say it's interesting data from "a friend."

What I am seeing is national, not relating to Iowa specifically. And it's not a cross-section of Republicans, but it probably is a pretty good barometer of conservatives.

Based on what I'm seeing, Rubio is going absolutely, positively nowhere, and Trump is going downhill. Pretty big. Maybe not the final implosion, but MUCH bigger than just the day-to-day noise.

Combine this with the fact that we're not seeing any surge in voting registration in Iowa*, indicating that (sadly) Trump is NOT motivating huge new blocks of voters, and I don't know how he can win... unless Cruz people get disheartened by the nonsense being pumped out by Politico, CNN, and all the other left-wing Trump lovers.

(*Again, this is not a tell-all. Last-minute registrations and simply activating existing registered voters could be plenty to bring about astounding voter turnout. But it is a dog that's not barking. New registrations have in the past correlated with surges in caucus participation.)


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; dangus; iowa; putinistas4trump; trump; usefulidiots4trump
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To: BlueNgold

LIke I said in the headline, “Trumpeters free to disbelieve it if they want.”


101 posted on 01/30/2016 8:27:51 AM PST by dangus
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To: Lonely Are The Brave

>> The only thing that will stop him in Iowa is a big big blizzard. <<]

Oh, so I see you’ve already settled on the excuse. That’s efficient.


102 posted on 01/30/2016 8:28:39 AM PST by dangus
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To: dangus

Like I implied, the post says literally nothing of substance.

I’m interested in what’s going in on this election.

I truly want to know details.

But when people pop a headline that indicates information is available, but then provide none - I, and many others, are naturally frustrated.

It’s a nothing post.


103 posted on 01/30/2016 8:31:59 AM PST by BlueNgold (May I suggest a very nice 1788 Article V with your supper...)
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To: MarDav
Brings up the question of what exactly is the cost of freedom?

Having a good all-American education was the ideal many WWII vets thought was best for their children. Little did they suspect that, even in the 1950s, the Marxists and other enemies of freedom were already settling into the public schools and universities, not to mention the churches. Our parents trusted our teachers and our school system. Ouch.
104 posted on 01/30/2016 8:32:15 AM PST by Resettozero
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To: dangus

You probably believe that wrestling is real..don’t you.


105 posted on 01/30/2016 8:33:06 AM PST by AFret.
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To: McGruff

I think it's some kind of hopey-changey funk.

106 posted on 01/30/2016 8:37:42 AM PST by RasterMaster ("Towering genius disdains a beaten path." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: dangus
Ya your probably right. All the trumpsters should just stay home. No sense voting for someone that's just going to lose anyway. /s

Friends don't let friends vote Cruz.

107 posted on 01/30/2016 8:39:51 AM PST by Kudsman (Restore the Republic, repeal the 17th.)
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To: dangus

Here’s your answer; WEATHER will decide Iowa 2016.


108 posted on 01/30/2016 8:41:37 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (The Huckster for Prez!)
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To: Resettozero

To think those fighting in WW II thought they were securing freedom for the next generation while some of that very same “greatest generation” we’re thinking up ways to undermine their efforts.


109 posted on 01/30/2016 8:43:55 AM PST by MarDav
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To: mad_as_he$$

2nd guy in two minutes telling me that. Sounds like Trumpeters have gotten the word that turnout will NOT be the explosion they’ve been counting on, and that if they lose they should blame the weather.


110 posted on 01/30/2016 8:48:47 AM PST by dangus
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To: dangus

I’m inclinded to disagree.

But recent history shows that republican voters are drawn to poor candidates, so it may happen!


111 posted on 01/30/2016 8:49:46 AM PST by Ted Grant
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To: dangus
First of all I am not a “Trumpeter”. I support Huckabee.

Second if you would actually go look at a weather forecast then you would not be so cavalier about it.

Third I grew up in Iowa.

Oh and I still have family all over the State. You want to know what they say? Weather will decide the outcome.

112 posted on 01/30/2016 8:53:19 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Huckster for Prez!)
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To: mad_as_he$$
Huckabee would have won the SC primary in 2008 if not for the weather. His key precincts in the northern part of the state were hit hard by inclement weather hurting his turnout. The vote was still very close but had the weather been different he would have won. Old enough to remember weather is crucial in many races. Have a great day.
113 posted on 01/30/2016 9:01:07 AM PST by Lonely Are The Brave
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To: dangus

And lets talk about the aforementioned lack of surge in New voter registrations...

Simple facts.
In 2012 there were about 121,500 people who caucused as Republicans.
That is just shy of 20% of the registered republicans in IA (just over 600,000).
As of Thursday at least 3,000 people in Iowa had switched from democratic or no affiliation to republican.
IA allows same day registration and party re-affiliation for the caucuses.

The analysis then becomes quite subjective. Do we judge the 3k switches, and another 3k of new registrants against the 120k, or against the 600k? Most believe party changes are more likely to caucus, but new registrants are hard to judge in terms of commitment to actually vote.

And of course, we won’t know the same day registrations until caucus day.

Could 3 pct change the outcome? Romney lost by fewer votes than that.

In the end it will of course be about turn out. The Cruz team clearly knows this based on some of the recent ‘voter encouragement’ mailers. The Trump team knows this as well. Laudner rented extra space for the phone banks.

Conventional wisdom says the Cruz supporters come from the historically most reliable caucus blocks, so his support is in general considered rock solid. But conventional wisdom has yet to predict anything of substance in this race.

We will know soon enough.

When you have something of actual substance that would be of interest to people who care about this race please ping me. Real actual information, regardless of who would deem it good news, is what I seek.


114 posted on 01/30/2016 9:03:02 AM PST by BlueNgold (May I suggest a very nice 1788 Article V with your supper...)
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

“Cruz promoting voter fraud in Iowa”

Didn’t bother to listen to the whole quote, did you? “Bring 9 friends with you”. Or are you just purposely spreading half truths? I don’t see any third possibility.


115 posted on 01/30/2016 9:06:29 AM PST by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
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To: Theo
Frankly I don't believe the junk about any of the candidates now being tossed out into the media to run with.....I was settled with the candidate I support before this nonsense we see happening began months ago.

It's been interesting to watch the media's hands move....and once again position candidates they want "stories" on or can develop "stories" about to engage the public.

Am so glad I gave Cruz a strong look see beforehand and with that I also decided anything he/his campaign did or said throughout this primary I'd give lots of room for whatever to win because we do know how nasty things can get....and we do know who the media is and what they do to frame every word spoken as well as even not spoken......

STILL there has not been one vote cast......nor counted. It remains be seen as well who gets what delegates. So there's nothing that can shake my support of Cruz for the win.....all the rest is theater for all until count.

Go Ted Go!!!!


116 posted on 01/30/2016 9:08:08 AM PST by caww
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To: Lonely Are The Brave

May you have a great day also!


117 posted on 01/30/2016 9:10:14 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Huckster for Prez!)
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To: BlueNgold

You’re getting bogged down in the swamps. Trump COULD totally get a hundred thousand same-day registrants. But the point is not that Trump has already failed to draw people in. It’s simply that there is a dog that ain’t barking: We’re seeing weak data from the registration data we already have. And that suggests a lack of interest.


118 posted on 01/30/2016 9:24:06 AM PST by dangus
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To: dangus

There is no real information here to believe or disbelieve, FRiend.


119 posted on 01/30/2016 9:25:34 AM PST by MortMan (I am offended by those who believe they have a right not to be offended.)
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To: ez

I am the subject of the sentence. The sentence is about me. ;-P


120 posted on 01/30/2016 9:32:39 AM PST by MortMan (I am offended by those who believe they have a right not to be offended.)
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