Posted on 02/10/2016 8:13:23 AM PST by conservativejoy
Since the modern primary system kicked in back in 76, no Republican has won without taking Iowa or New Hampshire. Since Cruz took Iowa and Trump was expected to take New Hampshire, that put Rubio in a difficult position.
However, Rubio's team had an answer for that: 3rd in IA, 2nd in NH and 1st in SC. It hadn't been done that way on the Republican side, but that did seem like a plausible path to the nomination.
Unfortunately, Rubio's 5th place finish in NH means both Jeb and Kasich will stay in and split the establishment vote. It also means Rubio will probably be relegated to 3rd place in SC.
Keep in mind that Trump is in first in almost every state and he has a relatively solid base of support. He can definitely be beaten, but that is unlikely to happen unless the race narrows down to two candidates.
Cruz's win in IA, his deep pockets and his 2nd place national standing means he's definitely in through March.
The establishment lane can't consolidate soon enough to make an impact and even if it does, it's doubtful that any of them could beat Trump 1-on-1 in a rabidly anti-establishment year.
So, either the vote will consolidate around Cruz who can beat Trump 1-on-1 or all these candidates who can't win will bleed support from Cruz and practically guarantee a Trump win.
PS: It is possible that enough delegates might be bled off of Trump and Cruz to throw the race into a brokered convention, but once the GOP gets to that point it's between a rock and a hard place. I'm not a supporter of Donald Trump, but if he has the most delegates, he DESERVES to be the nominee. If the establishment were to rob Trump of the nomination at the convention, the backlash would be so enormous that it would practically guarantee a loss to the Democrats no matter whom the GOP selected as a nominee.
So, if Donald Trump is your guy, vote for him, but if you want someone other than Trump, it seems likely that your only realistic option at this point is Ted Cruz.
A vote for anyone but Cruz is now a vote for Trump.
Cruz got 12 per cent and spent the least amount of money per vote
Oh really? Trump hasn’t spent much and he got 3 times the vote Cruz did. Trump paid the least, stop lying.
And its not over yet still lots of votes to be counted this morning. Its a 3 way tie 3 candidates separated by less than 1% and that could change the lead we don’t know. Plus someone might ask for a recount.
84% precincts reporting
Ted Cruz 30,071 votes (-62,154) 11.6%
Jeb Bush 28,617 votes (-63,608) 11.0%
Marco Rubio 27,764 votes (-64,461) 10.7%
A statistical tie. Note Trump had more votes than all 3 men combined now that is a Big Big Win
Trump yesterday was ahead in SC by 16% this should push that over to over 20%. This is the establishments last stand, because NV. is going to go for Trump.
Frankly, if Donald Trump really wanted to make America great again, he’d drop out and throw his support to Ted Cruz.
yep, just a question of who plays Establishement spoiler Kaisch, Bush or Rubio.
Such bias in all media today. Cruz is the story because NH wasn’t fertile ground and he didn’t put all that much into it.
Then why wasn’t Trump the real story in Iowa, much truer for him there.
Or if you don’t want Trump, you’ll have to turn to Cruz.
What if you don’t want Cruz, do you then have to turn to Trump?
Media still controlling our votes, just coming at us from different sides.
If true, bad news for Cruz. Indy’s will make the call and he’s got problems there.
Go play somewhere else.
Trump Cruz, Cruz Trump, me I like it!
Right, Trump has more then twice the support that cruz does, but cruz still gets equal billing? No, this is just cruz still trying to ride Trumps coattails, it is not going to work any more. After SC, cruz will be in Jeb territory.
Not so fast my friend.
Kasich has no money. Bush spends $3000 per vote. The powers that be might ground them. Then add Christie getting out.
Rubio becomes THE establishment guy with 30-40% of the vote.
They get Trump and Cruz to kill each other.
Rube moves up the ladder.
This has never been about the country in Donald’s mind. This is about Donald having power directly instead of buying it through Democrat politicians.
Trump does not have the knowledge or the judgment to lead this country.
All things in due time!
No I think I heard a breakdown of the money spent this morning on FOX (if you can believe FOX anymore:-) that Cruz actually spent the least per vote.
Together, I think the two contain the plurality of voters not rabid Democrat. I do hope they come to a meeting of minds and concentrate on completely squashing Jeb Bush’s chances any farther than he’s at today.
Cruz spent the least per vote. Trump was second, but spent almost twice as much per vote as Cruz. Both were well under the amount spent by other candidates and way, way, way below the $1500/vote spent by Jeb.
It is a one-man race with four guys vying for 2nd through 5th place.
One winner. Trump!
In NH Cruz paid 18 per vote, Trump 40 per vote.
Kasich+Christie+Bush+Fiorina+Rubio = The Nomination
Christie is already out. Kasich will be out soon despite making it respectable. Fiorina is out effectively already.
If you have a cage match between Rubio and Bush, I think Bush comes out ahead.
What you actually have here is a path to the nomination for Bush. It could be Bush versus Clinton once a-freaking-gain.
I hope people take this to heart and vote for Cruz
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.