Posted on 03/18/2016 6:35:33 AM PDT by MNDude
If the GOP nominee goes to a brokered convention, what do you predict will happen? Who will they pick as the nominee? How will the Trump voters respond?
10% Chance Cruz gets the nomination - Cruz surges or Trump falters (or both) and Cruz starts winning most of the states from here until June, he either ends up with more delegates than Trump or pretty close, either way he is perceived as having the "big 'mo" going into the convention and gets the nod.
5% Chance someone else gets the nomination - Something just crazy and off the wall happens between now and the convention, Trump drops out of the race or says/does something that just totally tanks his support, Cruz falters as well. Whatever happens the establishment feels they can safely give the nomination to "one of their own" with little political fallout.
First, I think Trump will win the votes prior to the convention.
My reasoning is that he has started in on Hillary, and is pretty much “dismissing” Cruz. There are lot of people who will “assume” that Trump has the win already, and there are other who will ask why Cruz is attacking Trump, rather than Clinton.
That said, to address you question: What would happen at an open convention? The answer is that none of the current candidates will be at the top of the ticket.
Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich might be the VP, but the thinking will be that since no one was able to get to the end...they wouldn’t beat Hillary.
And my out of left field Candidate: Gen Patreous. They certainly would not be able to go after him for security breaches.
It will depend on how close Trump and Cruz are to the 1237 magic number.
If it is several hundred short, it could result in Jeb, as Cruz or Rubio or Kasich would not have a chance.
If it is within a hundred or so, the uncommitted will be wined and dined and promised a night in the Lincoln Bedroom. So far, there are some 120 uncommitted.
Trump is a master of negotiation. The GOPe can't negotiate to save their lives.
Who do you think will win in the end?
No body goes to the convention with 1,237. After first vote many of Trump’s delegates jump ship. They nominate Cruz or Kasich.
I never said they would not dwarf them.
But you tell me. As a rabid Trump supporter you see all over the internet what are you going to do if you know what is amassing outside your convention? Are you going to join in the crowd to protect Trump from the left especially with BLM and illegals joining in in the Move-on part of the mix or sit at home?
Trump supporters are going to be outside that convention either way....the only thing that is going to change is the size of the crowd if they are bringing pitchforks for the GOPe instead of just being a buffer for Trump.
Either way there is no way Cruz is top of the ticket. Nobody in that convention will have the guts to take it from Trump with the anger outside and I do not think Cruz would agree to that situation either. He is smarter than that.
A Contested convention means that no one has enough delegates to win on the first vote coming into the convention, so the candidates lobby the uncommitted delegates before the first ballot takes place. After the first ballot and no one wins then a brokered convention is in play. No delegates are committed and can vote for whomever they chose to.
He said on Savage the other day that he has a GREAT countermove planned if they try any third party tricks on him.
If it is several hundred short, it could result in Jeb, as Cruz or Rubio or Kasich would not have a chance.
If it is within a hundred or so, the uncommitted will be wined and dined and promised a night in the Lincoln Bedroom. So far, there are some 120 uncommitted.
There was a story on thehill.com a couple days ago about how, legally, their are NO limits on what a candidate can offer a delegate to get their vote once the rules release them to vote as they want. Perhaps Trump should just find 1237 delegates, offer them each a check for $10,000 and be done with it, I mean for him $12 Million dollars is chump change, he probably made more than that on his real estate last week.
Oh yeah, I’ve been thinking if the gope hoping for a brokered convention with Donald “The Freaking” Trump, they may want to be careful what they wish for.
Trump will be the nominee. The GOP-e will run third party with Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush. Hillary will coast to an easy victory. She will ban all guns by executive order on the first day. On the second day, she will reveal she is the antichrist, and will release billions of autonomous killing Artificial Intelligence robots that kill only Republicans, Conservatives, and white people.
I agree 100%. Trump is unbeatable. America has already decided. All the doomsday rhetoric will only serve to push Trump over the 1237. Americans don’t like being led by the nose and have HAD ENOUGH!
I have never seen anything so uplifting as the SPIRIT of the voters I saw during Poll Watching last Tuesday. The voters were in high spirits, smiling, almost high fives flying, when they put their vote in the machines. Many Independents were disappointed they couldn’t vote for Trump and many minorities were saying they were glad they had changed their registration from Democrat to Republican in time. My precinct, a strong Democrat precinct went overwhelmingly for Trump. We almost ran out of ballots the turnout was so huge....setting a record.
You left out the autonomous killing Artificial Intelligence killing robots.
If delegates are bought and sold, Hillary wins even more states than Obama in a low turnout election.
It’s not exactly true that no delegates are committed if there is a second ballot.
Florida, for example, binds delegates through THREE rounds of voting.
Cruz may not be interested, and there is, indeed, a lot of water under the bridge, but you’d be surprised by the way that a pol can rationalize a complete course correction.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Cruz a lot. I donated to his campaign when he declared, and I’ll be thrilled to vote for him (as opposed to Kasich, Rubio, Jeb, [fill in the name of any Establishment RINO]).
But I don’t think that Trump will take Cruz as Veep, not with the issue of Cruz’ place of birth. Note that whatever your view of that issue may be, Trump IS correct that the Dems will sue on it - and that kind of a distraction will not help the ticket win in November. But a deal doesn’t necessarily have to include the Veep position. Maybe they’ll cut a deal in which Cruz is the Solicitor General (I’m pretty sure that Christie was already promised the AG spot), and get to pick ALL of the federal judges that Trump nominates - Cruz vets them, comes to Trump with his top 3 choices for each position, and POTUS Trump picks one and does the nominating. Later, Cruz gets put on the Supreme Court - perhaps even as the CJ, after Roberts is forced by them to resign “to spend more time with his family” or some such thing. Being the Chief Justice for the next 40 years ain’t exactly settling for 2nd best - he’ll still be active long after Trump is dead and gone.
As I wrote, that is the optimistic view. If Republicans do not unite around a candidate, Hillary will be President; in charge of the military, the FBI, etc.
Within 8 years, FR will cease to function, but Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and Mark Levin will be wealthy.
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