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Why A Hedge Fund Manager Thinks Tesla's Model 3 May Put Elon Musk Out of Business
fortune.com ^ | 2 Dec 2016 | Jen Wieczner

Posted on 12/02/2016 4:14:07 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT

In order to sell the Model 3 at as low a price as $35,000 and still make a profit, Tesla would have to cut its production costs by more than half....

Where will Tesla find all those savings? The company hasn’t said specifically, but Spiegel estimates that it can cut about $6,000 off the $81,000-per-car cost by using its new batteries produced at its so-called gigafactory (which also cost $5 billion to build), another $5,000 by using cheaper parts for the Model 3—substituting steel for aluminum, for example—and $5,000 on top of that by finding ways to make its manufacturing more efficient (perhaps with greater automation). ...

Yet with the “mass-market” Model 3, selling the car for more could be just as fatal a sentence for Tesla as selling it at a loss. If Tesla raised the base price of the car to $50,000 or more, as Spiegel expects, the Model 3 would no longer be competitive with the many other electric cars that will be on the market by then—as the Model 3 won’t start shipping to customers until the end of next year, and likely not before the end of 2018 for most orders, analysts predict.

(Excerpt) Read more at fortune.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: tesla
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Tesla, Tucker...

How do you stay in business selling at a loss? We make up for it with the volume!

1 posted on 12/02/2016 4:14:07 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Not to mention his exploding rockets, where he is lead designer.


2 posted on 12/02/2016 4:16:29 PM PST by cicero2k
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Move production to China. Kandi would be an obvious partner. ;)


3 posted on 12/02/2016 4:20:05 PM PST by Vic S ( David Rockefeller killed Larry McDonald (KAL 007))
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Move production to China. Kandi would be an obvious partner. ;)


4 posted on 12/02/2016 4:20:06 PM PST by Vic S ( David Rockefeller killed Larry McDonald (KAL 007))
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To: Vic S

Sorry for posting that twice, but I have a lot of their stock.


5 posted on 12/02/2016 4:20:57 PM PST by Vic S ( David Rockefeller killed Larry McDonald (KAL 007))
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To: DUMBGRUNT
They could use the bait/switch tactic used by GM.

The bare-bones, low-cost versions of a model are very rare. Instead, they load up dealerships with option packages. It's kind of like basic cable vs. the expensive package that has the channels everyone wants.

Tesla charges for an option that is enabled with a battery swap that allows higher maximum current. They call it "ludicrous mode" (yes, after Spaceballs).

On the Model S, "ludicrous mode" is another $10,000.

6 posted on 12/02/2016 4:21:19 PM PST by justlurking (#TurnOffCNN)
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To: cicero2k

SpaceX’s next launch is in two weeks. Their success rate is in line with other rocket builders, while being much more innovative and with much lower costs. A couple of months ago they test fired an engine that will power a booster with over three and a half times the thrust of the Saturn V. I’d love to be known as the lead designer of SpaceX.


7 posted on 12/02/2016 4:29:52 PM PST by Moonman62 (Make America Great Again!)
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To: Moonman62

NASA told them putting the helium tank inside the O2 tank was dumb but they did anyway and it has caused two rockets to explode so far.


8 posted on 12/02/2016 4:33:05 PM PST by TalonDJ
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Make up for it by volume? No WAY! Make up for it by government handouts and accounting slight of hand.


9 posted on 12/02/2016 4:39:58 PM PST by oldplayer
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To: TalonDJ

>NASA told them putting the helium tank inside the O2 tank was dumb but they did anyway and it has caused two rockets to explode so far.

I know. It’s like telling a blasting company you can save them 80% in material costs by using 100% Nitro Glycerin for shots.


10 posted on 12/02/2016 4:40:15 PM PST by soycd
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To: DUMBGRUNT

“Where will Tesla find all those savings?”

Need to mine more fairy dust.


11 posted on 12/02/2016 4:47:50 PM PST by sergeantdave
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To: DUMBGRUNT

They will make up for losses with taxpayer subsidies. Gotta help fight glo-bull warming, don’t ya know.


12 posted on 12/02/2016 4:55:47 PM PST by dynachrome (When an empire dies, you are left with vast monuments in front of which peasants squat to defecate)
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To: TalonDJ

The helium tank is staying where it is. The first explosion was caused by a bad strut, which they corrected. The second explosion was caused by the way they loaded the superchilled propellant which is one of their innovations. That’s been corrected, too.

Their success rate is in line with other rocket makers, while being more innovative and doing it at much lower cost.


13 posted on 12/02/2016 5:12:59 PM PST by Moonman62 (Make America Great Again!)
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To: dynachrome
Gotta help fight glo-bull warming, don’t ya know.

No mater the cost, it's for the children!

14 posted on 12/02/2016 5:14:10 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Read the latest GAAP financials.

Tesla makes 26% gross profit per car.

Said “hedge fund manager” manages less than $5M.

Elon wipes his $#@ with $5M.

American Co that manufactures completely in the USA.

Americans who root for Tesla’s failure are retards at best.


15 posted on 12/02/2016 5:35:17 PM PST by Reaganez
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To: DUMBGRUNT
We make up for it with the volume!

That's purely old-school business thinking. These days, it's "We'll make up for it with MORE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES!

16 posted on 12/02/2016 5:38:25 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Cut off gubbmint subsidies.
Watch cost explode.


17 posted on 12/02/2016 5:56:57 PM PST by Darksheare (Those who support liberal "Republicans" summarily support every action by same.)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Enron II.


18 posted on 12/02/2016 5:58:20 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (President Trump is coming, and the rule of law is coming with him.)
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To: Reaganez
Tesla makes 26% gross profit per car.

Pls show a source for that bit of info???

19 posted on 12/02/2016 6:00:52 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT
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To: DUMBGRUNT

What a bunch of nonsense. This guy has no idea what it actually costs to build the Model 3. He is taking the cost of the Model S and making wild assumptions about how much differences between the Model S and the Model 3 might cost.

A more rational analysis would be bottom up. Figure what the major components cost and go from there. The Model S “cost” is still amortizing R & D and tooling costs. $30K per vehicle ! The actual components and labor cost nowhere near $81K to build each new unit. The 50KWH battery pack in Tesla vehicles is a $12K item. The electric motor is a $4000 item. The high voltage controller is a $3000 item.

Figure the non drive-train components for a Tesla Model 3 is similar to other cars somewhere in the $8K ballpark and add the electric specific components and you have a $27K max cost to build a steel Model 3. R&D costs are not only already paid for by the Model S, but the Model 3 has huge numbers of pre-orders which means that any small additional R&D and tooling costs will be amortized over many more vehicles than they were for the Model S or X.


20 posted on 12/02/2016 7:18:38 PM PST by Kellis91789 (We hope for a bloodless revolution, but revolution is still the goal.)
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