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Posted on 07/03/2018 11:30:25 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Truly a depiction of the Deep State Threat if true,...
(Excerpt) Read more at youtu.be ...
Apparently you are unaware of whete the comment originates
Yours is the loss
No, I am not perfect but I can perfectly say this:
“You are not able nor capable of judging others, so you should worry about yourself, seriously.”
Occam’s Razor is a cliche often abused and misused by novices leading to false inference and false pride of thinking a solution has been found which in reality is nothing more than an oversimplification.
In scientific data modeling, the simplest model is usually (99%) false. At the other extreme, an overly complex model will explain data but be unreliable in practice as conditions change.
The R-Squared coefficient of variation metric is used to assess a model’s performance in explaining how much of a dataset’s total variation is accounted for by a model.
Occam’s Razor models have very low R-Squared which means they are useless for the most part.
A high R-Squared value may seem like a good thing but if the model is overparameterized, then the model is unreliable.
The best models are in the middle, where they are not overparameterized and they have a high R-Squared.
Latching onto a simple observation and using it to conclude validity because of “Occam’s Razor” doesn’t cut it.
Taking 7500 and 7600, adding “fat fingers”, then baking it in Occam’s oven doesn’t make an entree worth paying money for.
To gather data and observations worthy of an investigation requires more.
*****************
Begin:
Make a premise: Pilot desired to xmit ‘7600’ but in error xmitted ‘7500’. Leave Occam out of it.
Observational perspective: this is not a subject that hasn’t been ensconced on the brains of competent pilots and ATCs under rigorous review. In other words, the industry knows what they are doing.
Note data point: JetBlue airliner has state of art transponder equipment. Transponder is digital. Keypad can require setting code and then pushing auto mode before squawk is carried outside cockpit. With pilot and copilot, code entry and auto mode set, multiple errors would have to occur before 7500 hijack unlawful intervention code was seen by ATC. This is all factual, nothing speculative.
But there’s more.
Go to FAA regs governing actions for squawk code 7500.
http://fsims.faa.gov/wdocs/orders/ps_orders/a_7110.49d.htm
Go to section (b) PILOT SIGNAL (COVERT) because this satisfies premise.
Read:
1 Controllers shall acknowledge receipt of beacon Code 7500 by transmitting “(aircraft call sign) (name of facility) verify squawking 7500.” An affirmative reply from the pilot indicates confirmation and proper authorities shall be notified by the receiving facility.
This section requires both
* an acknowedgement of code receipt and
* an affirmative reply
Preliminary conclusion:
Either the pilots and the ATCs committed up to 7 or 8 errors in transmitting 7500 or the premise is faulty.
Your post just proves my Occam’s Razor point..huge convoluted explanation for a transponder “typo”. Your “rules” explanation at the end doesn’t apply either...they had comms failure. No “affirmative reply from pilot” was forthcoming.
Haven’t judged any one only made observations
Seriously
Apparently I am....according to you,
You would have gotten the joke. Which you didn’t
Excellent POST!!
They will be asking “What Happened?!”
:^)
Been there done that
You?
You sure like putting words in others mouths
Jump to wrong conclusions a bunch
Aside: this might account for the Secret Service having used up funds as some are saying they have over on Hannity.
“That’s covered ad nauseam by those of moderate intelligence who read the drops.”
Obviously not, since you can not “cover” the fact that Q made many concrete predictions that absolutely failed to happen. All that the Q followers can do is try to dance around that fact, conveniently ignoring some predictions, or speculating that others might have been fulfilled even though you can’t produce any evidence of it. Just as you did in this post.
“Where is John Podesta?”
Visiting Yale giving a speech pretty recently:
https://news.yale.edu/2018/04/10/john-podesta-former-presidential-chief-staff-visit-campus
He also writes articles for the Washington Post, runs the Center for American Progress, and has a teaching job at Georgetown Law school. Not much of a mystery there.
“Where is Hillary Rotten?”
In the news pretty constantly since she stopped hiding in the Chappaqua woods a few weeks after the election.
“Q said she was allowed to travel outside the country to jurisdictions having an extradition treaty with the US.”
So “Q said” she could do what anyone can do, which is proof that Q isn’t full of ****. Right.
“Everything is on track with what the Q group said was going down.”
Nope, there have been no mass arrests, no martial law, no use of the Emergency Broadcast System, no massive riots in all major cities, etc. All things that Q predicted which of course failed to materialize because Q is a pathetic con artist.
“But the person confronting Q had developed a fixation somehow on [ARRESTS ARRESTS ARRESTS]”
Gee, maybe because Q predicted such and they completely failed. Sorry, I know you really are emotionally invested and want to believe in this fraud, but when someone promises one thing and it never happens and they try to substitute something else, that is not confirmation. That’s called a bait & switch.
“Some people start to believe their own suppositions. They ‘decode’ and then elevate their interpretation to ‘fact’.”
There is no “decoding” to be done with his predictions for November 2016 that completely failed. Sorry, but he made concrete predictions in plain english, and people asked him many questions and he gave detailed further explanations, in plain english, about what was supposed to happen. Then none of it happened.
No, because “Q” said so. Go read his predictions about what was supposed to happen in November 2016. None of it happened. He’s a fraud and a liar, proven so by his own statements.
“Many verifations as to the validity of Q, more so recently, some very direct validations by Trump.”
The only verifications have been that Q is a fraud and a liar.
Everything else is wishful thinking on the part of Q true believers who refuse to accept the obvious.
“Keep and open mind and be ready when things happen later this month.”
Sorry, but nothing is going to happen. The Q believers will just have some fresh excuses then as to why nothing happened, because that is their job. To constantly come up with excuses as to why their hero can’t actually predict anything accurately.
sure show me the post signed Q
I’ll wait...
Remember in November when Q told us about North Korea LOL trolls,
Anonymous
Nov 1 2017 01:13:10 (EST)
Some things must remain classified to the very end. NK is not being run by Kim, he’s an actor in the play. Who is the director? The truth would sound so outrageous most Americans would riot, revolt, reject, etc.
Nov 2 2017 01:14:27 (EST)
Would it blow your mind if I told you BO has been to NK and perhaps there now?
Why did his administration do little to slow their nuclear and missle capabilities?
Who feeds NK w/ strategic intel? Iran?
What deal was done with Iran under BO?
Why was the deal sealed under a top secret classification?
Why wasn’t Congress notified?
Why after BO left office all of a sudden NK has nukes and the tech to miniaturize for payload delivery within the US?
What about NSA CIA DI etc all confirming tech won’t be in place for 5+ years (statements made in 2016).
Why is all of this relevant and what does it tell you?
Big picture is rare.
Keep repeating what you read in the NY times and Washington Post say both are quite a popular publications here on FR ....
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