Posted on 03/21/2020 5:43:19 PM PDT by daniel1212
The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.
At a time when everyone needs better information, from disease modelers and governments to people quarantined or just social distancing, we lack reliable evidence on how many people have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who continue to become infected. Better information is needed to guide decisions and actions of monumental significance and to monitor their impact.
The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%)....
The Guardian (March 21): About 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the same] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
There have been over 11,000 deaths globally....estimates of the mortality rate have ranged from well below 1% in the young to over 3% among those who are elderly or have underlying health conditions. Seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally. Sars had a death rate of more than 10%.
USA News (March 5): Some people don't have any symptoms at all. About 80% of people recover from the disease without needing special treatment,
NPR: (March 20,) "at least one-quarter to... 81% of the U.S. population could get infected....COVID-19 is currently estimated to kill at least 10 people per thousand infected (1%).
CDC (March 18, ): among patients with COVID-19 in the United States the estimated fatality rate among persons aged 19 years and younger was 0%; 1% among persons aged 20–54 years; 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, and ranging from 10% to 27% among persons aged 85 and up. 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older .
NYT (March 19,): Death rate in Wuhan Is Lower than Previously Thought. Researchers calculated a 1.4 percent likelihood of dying in the city where the pandemic began. Earlier estimates ranged from 2 percent to 3.4 percent.
healthline.com: it’s possible another 77,000 people or even more have the virus already in the United States.
>statnews.com (March 17) Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).
Try selling insurance with those mortality tables to the US and the world.
You'll get some actuarians on your side, but for the rest of the drones, anyone can die.
the die has been cast. It's just time to ride the lightening until it's time to dig ourselves out.
If it's good enough for Climate Change..
National Nightmare: 1 In 5 Americans Expects They’ll Be Diagnosed With Coronavirus
https://www.studyfinds.org/national-nightmare-1-in-5-americans-expect-theyll-be-diagnosed-with-coronavirus/
Alien Anxiety: 1 In 5 Adults Fears Martians Will Invade Earth Within Next 50 Years
https://www.studyfinds.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/alien-4868331-816x520.jpg
Yes, “we” are making decisions without reliable data.
We have no choice, and I’m taking no sides.
Next.
We should know in about two weeks if all of this was overreaction.
The deep state plan is to do mass testing.
The testing will have many false positives.
This means lots of people will be told they have it when they actually don’t have it.
Don’t fall for their plan.
And in any case, since expanded testing will continue to result in cases already existing being headlined by the media, then people will assume many more are being infected, but which is not necessarily the situation.
Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Highlights Reel
nov 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174
they modeled this whole thing with a dry run
covid-19 mortality rate estimate bookmark
I am not a big rapper person ..at least I can understand this guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPhe2n-p-mw
But this statement:
its either worse than they are telling us or nothing at all...
we will see soon
look at NY...I dont think nothing at all
Hopefully the miracle malaria drug will work
the next stage is to tell us that these low numbers are a false decline (2nd wave coming) and that this is the new normal for 18 months.
Bad idea. If they do that and don’t have massive death numbers to go along with the fake positives the death rate will plummet to ridiculously low numbers and the hysteria will end. The media has painted itself into a corner. They’ve fanned the panic, but if the stuff the president is doing works and testing shows low infection numbers or death rates don’t climb they’ll be forced to admitted to was handled well. Oops.
One of the fallouts of this will be tons of questions about just what the f*** the CDC has been doing with the billions we give them every year.
If it's good enough for Climate Change..
No kidding! How many trillions have been dumped into that? How many trillions more do they want to dump into it? Not to mention the regressive technological steps they want the world to take.
“The testing will have many false positives.”
Nah. Ima guess the MSM will *claim* the testing is rife with false negatives, because: Trump.
Those seasonal allergies + panic attack that sent you howling to the ER?
Trump’s handing out inferior test kits! We’re all gonna DIE!!!
I was thinking it might be more like five weeks before it became obvious. (if it’s an overreaction) But it will before long whether it’s two weeks or a few more.
the more people are tested then the higher the infection count, but which does not necessarily mean a great increase in new cases.
The increase in reported infections that makes NY the epicenter corresponds to the 45,437 tests given (presuming standardized texting*), with an increase of +40,165 since last week, and showing 10,356 positives, out of a total pop. of 19,453,561.
In comparison, California has only done 12,528 tests, with an increase since last week of +11,319, showing 1,279 positives, while the state has a total pop. of 39,512,223. (https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/)
The bigger the net then the most fish you catch, but that does not necessarily mean the number of fish are increasing.
New Jersey is an outlier with a reported 1,661 tests and +1,409 since last week, and 1,327 positives (+ 16 deaths), meaning it has the highest (or close to) rate of infections to testing, but suspect something is amiss.
*Not knowing just who they test, and what test they use means such data is of limited value.
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