Posted on 10/02/2006 6:17:03 PM PDT by okstate
http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/FL16.pdf
http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/pdf/FL16b.pdf
Majority Watch asked the question in two different ways. The first link is a sample of 1001 likely voters who were asked simply if they would vote for Foley, the Republican, or Mahoney, the Democrat. Among likely voters there Mahoney led by 7 points, 50-43. Among certain voters (795), Mahoney led by 10 points, 52-42. This question reflects how the ballot will look.
The second poll was taken of 1003 likely voters. Among them Mahoney led by only 3 points over Foley. Among certain voters (813 total), Mahoney led by one. The question asked in this poll was:
"I would like you to think about the race for Congress. Republican Mark Foley resigned on Friday as the result of a scandal involving a House page. Votes for Foley will count as votes for a new Republican nominee to be determined next week. Knowing this, if the election were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mark Foley? Or Democrat Tim Mahoney?
Interesting results, and impressive that they did two separate polls with such large sample sizes.
Interesting poll on FL-16 in the wake of the Foley scandal. Newcomer Constituent Dynamics is there with the first poll, two of them actually.
This is a very informative pair of polls, and indicates that the race will be competitive.
The new GOP candidate in that district is Joe Negron.
Is this a heavily dem district or a republican district?
Well that poll is a tad of good news
Republican.
It's a moderately Republican district, and it will be a banner year for Republicans in the state. The Republican replacement candidate will have a lot going for him.
Yea, these were conducted before that was known.
I think the wording is selected to bias the poll to the Dim. I would make more sense to ask:
"...who would you vote for? A yet to be named Republican? Or Democrat Tim Mahoney?"
And besides, the GOP candidate (now Negron) performed better in that question than in the official first poll.
Watch for reports that George Allen drops the last n.
This was taken before or after? It seems kind of soon to have a poll out.
After.
Tim Mahoney polled 7 points ahead of a can of re-heated creamed spinach...
Chris Matthews with lead with Allen dropping the last n on tomorrow's show.
Samantha is a resident of that district. According to her it is heavily Republican and she is confident Negron will be elected over the Dem.
This poll seems to support that. Someone needs to clue in the DBM. All the talking heads have put this in the win column for Dems.
If I were a voter in that district it would make me sick to my stomach to pull the lever for "Foley".
No one should mistake how abhorrent a task they are asking voters to commit, even if Foley won't be the one that holds the seat.
Is the seat lost? It really depends on the new candidate and his ability to ease folks over their distaste of Foley. If he can do that, he deserves some credit. Certainly they may not want the Democrat's politics, but neither do they like the idea of on election night being labled the district that voted for a pedophile..if only in name only.
I'm sympathetic to the strain being placed on these voters. It's not right they are in this position.
I live in the district and in the last several elections I cold never vote for foley, because he is pro-choice. This time I will have no problem voting for Foley because I am well aware I am voting for Negron.
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