Skip to comments.Breathe Deep: 2000 Pre-election polls were right about Bush, wrong on Nader
Posted on 10/30/2004 5:33:24 PM PDT by dangus
It's good that Republican supporters stay a little nervous before election day, so that we are motivated to do what we can to help our guys win. But I'm sensing a level of anxiety among some Republicans that is counter-productive, so I'm sharing this with y'all:
Bush is ahead in the polls. This is good news. But many Republicans are fearful that he was also ahead in the polls in 2000, and lost the popular vote. Actually, take comfort: The polls in 2000 were VERY accurate about Bush's level of support. What they could not measure, although some suspected, was that Nader's liberals supporters would abandon ship at the last moment for Gore.
Take Gallup for instance. Their final poll was actually amzingly accurate measuring George Bush. They came within 1/10th of 1 percent. But Gallup figured Nader would garner about 4%. That's the norm for all pollsters: Nader would get 4%. Some had 3% (NBC, ABC); others had as high as 5%. Nader wound up with only 1.4 percent, losing 2.6%, or 2/3rds of his total, to Gore.
Zogby has gained a lot of accolade for correctly calling that Gore would win or tie against Bush in 2000, but he actually was about the worst at measuring Nader and Bush. Whereas the end result had Nader plus Gore beating Bush by less than 2% -- a result which Gallup nailed -- Zogby had Nader plus Gore beating Bush by SEVEN percent, way outside the margin or error. (Only Rasmussen, which had Bush beating Gore plus Nader by 5, was as bad.)
In the end, according to a Gallup post-election survey (which, admittedly, raises credibility issues on the part of the respondents) nearly half of the Nader voters were conservative (or Bush-leading.)
In this years' polls, Naders totals have been around one percent. In many polls, Bush does BETTER when Nader isn't an option. So there seems to be little danger of a massive defection of Nader voters for Gore at the very end.
So before anyone panics, keep this in mind: In 2000, Gallup correctly predicted that Gore and Nader would receive 50% of the vote to Bush's 48%. In 2004, Gallup (so far) has Bush leading by 5 percent. That amount may shrink with the release of today's poll, but I would very definitely be surprised if the lead disappeared.
Also, please note: There is a false notion that an "October Surprise" relevation that Bush had been arrested for DUI kept many moralizing conservatives home. There is fear of another attempted October Surprise. The truth is that although some conservatives apparently sat out 2000, this was apparently over earlier accusations of drinking and drugging. Tracking polls did not show a last-minute collaps in Bush support, except for Zogby. Voters don't make up their mind based on journalistic hit-pieces revealed the weekend before an election.
And yes, I know, I should use a spell checker. *grumble*
Can you please change "Breath" to "Breathe?" I can handle a few of my other typos, but it's embarassing in the headline.
Amen to THAT!
Remember the "DUI discovery" worked against Bush by a LOT at the last minute in 2000. Who knows what the 'rats will pull tomorrow night and Monday? It ain't over until it's over. So KEEP ON CAMPAIGNING ! Consider copying and emailing things like THIS again.
People who care about their country need to stop obsessing over these polls and get down to Bush HQ. They need walkers, people for phone banks, drivers, and poll watchers. There's no sense in watching a train wreck when a little exertion can swtich the locomotive.
Your right on here, I think we've wasted a lot of time and energy worrying about what Rassmussen and Zogby have had to say.
They should allow us to edit our own posts, it's just a permissions thing anyway....I think. Not to bash the freeper forums, but one would think we could get a slick program like vBulletin or Lithium to use. Maybe some of our 'rich' Republican friends can make a donation for software. ;-)
Did you read the author's statement on this?
Yes, but confident warriors make for better warriors than anxious warriors. People are more motivated dreaming about their eventual glory than worrying about defeat.
When the DIMS are behind they fight hard and GOTV bigtime. When we get bad looking news we get all depressed and suicidal. If anything, maybe we can look at the strengths of the enemy and learn a couple of things (damn it hurt saying that).
Spel cheker bedamed, gud pos.
I field muh bettur.
Republicans have anxiety because, unlike Kerry supporters, we realize what the stakes are: Whether the President of the United States will be the courageous and decent man we have now, or a proven enemy of the American people and the Constitution of the United States. We realize the extreme peril America would face with Kerry in the White House (shudder)--Kerry, who would make us vulnerable, not only to Islamic terrorism, but sell us out to the America-hating UN.
Yeah, we have a hell of a good reason to be nervous.
Your right. I walked my feet off today and am now too tired to worry. Besides...I remember how the media spun the 2002 turnout. Remember that? We were sure to lose the zSenate and the 'Rats had a shot at taking the House too! They had all but declared Gephart was the Speaker. Look at the way the media tried to controil events in Australia! Howard won big and gained seats but the Aussie media had him gone!
And if I might put my 2 cents in (although here I'm sure this is repetitively redundant) - we need to go out and vote regardless of the polls, regardless of whether we're in red or blue states and MOST IMPORTANTLY, regardless of what the media is predicting.
That last statement is targeted directly to our GOP friends out west. Ignore all the predictions from these leftist reporters who are clamoring for a Bush defeat (who also took their time reporting a Bush pickup but were quick on the draw for Gore pickups).
PLEASE! Even if the entire right half of the country is predicted BLUE, go vote!!!!
//Mary Beth House (that's me) now daintily steps off her soap box...
Why, you've dropped yo' hanky steppin' off that thaya soapbox, Miss Mary Beth! Don't you fret now--my honor to fetch it fo' you. ;)
"Why thank you kind sir"
OT: Heaven help me if someone else has already posted this, but I just saw it and thought it was funny:
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.