DUmmie FUnnies 12-27-05 ("Kerry Won!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It")

DUmmie FUnnies ^ | December 27, 2005 | DUmmies and PJ-Comix

[Fintan]

 

[tje]

Well, I will say that quickly conceding was Kerry's finest hour. He proved, at the least, he was better than gore...


(my wife makes a casserole with the left over turkey, stuffing, mashed taters, and gravy. layered in a roasting pan, it is soooo good...)

Thanks for DUFU, though, I have to admit, I find DU down right painful to read at times..

[Jackknife]

[Amityschild]

More DUFU's!!! What a Christmas!

[jslade]

Democrats were well ahead of Republicans in new registrations in Ohio. South Florida, the “scene of the crime” in 2000, saw major Democratic efforts and a lackluster Republican response.

As a native Floridian, I consider South Florida as a separate state.

[kevkrom]

Let the DUmmies keep fighting the 2004 election while we work on 2006 and 2008. That scenario works just fine for me.

Of course, if I did think a DUmmies could be taught, I'd point out the following tidbits of information:

1. Sample selection. Going into the 2004 election, I was already warning people not to trust the exit polls because they were likely to be skewed. After the 2000 disaster and the dissolution of VNS, a new polling system was put into place. Being it's first time out, getting a representative sample correct was unlikely. As it turns out, the samples suffered from age, gender, and party affiliation biases due to the locations and self-selecting nature of who did and didn't respond to the polls. When normalized by the demographics of people who actually showed up to vote (based on the voter rolls), the 51-48 Kerry margin turned into a 51-48 Bush lead.

2. Margin of error. At 3,000 or so respondents, and percentages in the 40-60% range, the margin of error is about +/- 3%. That means that even if we assume the 51-48 Kerry exit poll lead, a Bush 51-48 win is still within the 95% confidence interval. Of course, assuming that 51-48 exit poll has problems (see above).

3. Confidence level. Even if we allow that the un-normalized Kerry margin of 51-48 was correct, and that Kerry being -3 and Bush +3 was unlikely even if possible, the poll still only has a 95% confidence interval. That means that 5% of similar surveys -- or 1 in 20 -- is simply a "clunker" that produces invalid results. Given the problems I point out in #1, a 95% confidence interval is also misleading, because there were systematic problems that made the un-normalized exit polls unreliable at any confidence level or margin of error.

4. Empirical observations. Regardless of any advance misgivings, I knew something was badly wrong with the exit polls when easy Bush states were not called early -- states Bush would eventually win by 8% or more (well outside the margin of error).

I say it in #1 above, but it's important to reiterate: once the exit polls were normalized to meet the demographics of the people who actually voted, they were remarkably accurate when compared to the final vote total -- more so, even, then I would have expected for a new system.

[PJ-Comix]

(my wife makes a casserole with the left over turkey, stuffing, mashed taters, and gravy. layered in a roasting pan, it is soooo good...)

I think the Publix turkey breast I used might have been pre-cooked. It took 2 1/2 hours to cook it for me. But that was absolutely the BEST turkey I ever ate. Maybe will get another one today.

[jslade]

Make that Southeast Florida is a separate state.

[Roscoe Karns]

I was appalled when the election was stolen from Gore in 2000. I had posted daily projections of my Election Model on DU in the four months leading up to the election. The projections were based on state and national polls. The final national model had Kerry 51.6 % of the two-party vote; the state model 51.8 %. The state model included a Monte Carlo simulation with a Kerry expected total of 337 electoral votes.

.
WHERE DID I GO WRONG??!

[PJ-Comix]

As a native Floridian, I consider South Florida as a separate state.

Actually South Florida is trending more towards Republicans recently. One reason is the large influx of Venezuelans and Colombians who tend to vote conservative. Also Black people from the Caribbean here are more conservative than American Blacks. BTW, in 1964, Broward County voted strongly for Goldwater. Then it began going strongly Democrat but that Democrat tendency is getting less and less. This is one reason why Bush carried the state more easily in 2004 with a comfortable margin.

[PJ-Comix]

Southeast Florida might be more liberal than the rest of the state but I wouldn't live anywhere else. Down here we are stocked full of colorful eccentrics. I plan to have some of them on my DUFU Podcast.

[Ditter]

I love it that the DUmmies are still talking about exit polls and looking to the past. I guess the future looks too grim.

[speed_addiction]

One of the FEW Petra pics where she is actually clad in covering.

Tell me about it! Took me at least 25 minutes and going through 1000 Google images of her nude to find this one. Not that I am complaining.


What We Are About To Do Here Is What The Good Lord Would Call A Cleansing of the Wicked. I Call It A Good Old Fashioned Texas Ass Kicking.

[kevkrom]

Tell me about it! Took me at least 25 minutes and going through 1000 Google images of her nude to find this one. Not that I am complaining.

Well, if you were in a hurry, you could have turned "safe search" on in your Google image search preferences. Of course, the scenic route is usually more fun than the highway, when you have the time...

[PJ-Comix]

Welcome aboard, PINGEE #768.

[NapkinUser]

Whatever happened to that book deal you were looking for, PJ? What's the latest, if you already said so, I'm sorry, I must have missed it.

[SCALEMAN]

[2:20 p.m. Kerry buys himself an extra-large jockstrap and a huntin' license.]

2:21 p.m. T. H. Kerry stuffs an Idaho into the jock strap to take up some slack.

[speed_addiction]

What We Are About To Do Here Is What The Good Lord Would Call A Cleansing of the Wicked. I Call It A Good Old Fashioned Texas Ass Kicking.

[freedumb2003]

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