Posted on 12/27/2005 5:03:33 AM PST by PJ-Comix
Have you ever been in the proximity of a member of the Flat Earth Society? If so, then you might have had the tedious experience of being subjected to endless "scientific" data to "prove" beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Earth is indeed flat. Likewise, the DUmmies are putting forth tons of statistical analysis to "prove" that Kerry actually did win the election in 2004. And speaking about 2004, this DUmmie THREAD hilariously titled, "Kerry Won!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It-'Scoop'" was posted in DUmmieland YESTERDAY, not in the immediate aftermath of election 2004. Yes, the DUmmies still can't get over it. And like the pathetic members of the Flat Earth Society, they will overwhelm you with "facts" to "prove" that Kerry WON the election. As usual, the tool-toting DUmmie rants are in Bolshevik Red while the commentary of your humble correspondent, who has absolute statistical proof that Mondale beat Reagan, is in the [brackets]:
TruthIsAll Interview--Kerry Won!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It-"Scoop"
[The Earth Is Flat!!! Tool for Everyone to Prove It---"Scoop"]
What more could you ask for on Christmas and the start of Hanukah. Well, it’s all here: the paper, the links, and the free Excel simulations. Happy Holidays!!!
[Happy Kwanzaa!!!]
Special for “Scoop” Independent Media
from Washington DC
Michael Collins
Dec. 21, 2005
[Methinks Michael Collins has consumed too many Tom Collins.]
USEFUL RELATED LINKS:
The Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllPollin...
Excel Polling Simulation Model
2004 Election Model Projection; Exit Poll Collection; Excel Interactive Election Simulation; Other links.
[My eyes glazeth over.]
The Kerry concession speech on November 3, 2004 marked the beginning, not the end of the controversy over the 2004 election. Just hours before the speech, Vice Presidential Candidate John Edwards emerged and said that, “John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election every vote would count and every vote will be counted."
[Including the votes the Democrats stole in the Washington state gubernatorial election?]
Democrats were in a state of shock. 2004 was a banner year for new registrations, party financial support, and activism. Reported new registrations favored Democrats all over the country. Democrats were well ahead of Republicans in new registrations in Ohio. South Florida, the “scene of the crime” in 2000, saw major Democratic efforts and a lackluster Republican response.
[Watching Susan Estrich's drunken face slobbering all over herself on Election Night, I would say the Democrats were well beyond mere shock.]
Democrats matched and exceeded Republicans in funds raised. For the first time, the internet proved to be a highly potent form of fund raising. The Democrats collected $10 million a month for the Kerry Campaign on the Internet alone. Other groups supporting the Democrats raised substantial funds. MoveOn.Org and New Democratic Network ran parallel campaign commercials and provided other support with the $25 million they raised during the election cycle.
Activism was at an all time high. People who had never worked in elections volunteered in large numbers and local Democratic parties throughout the country saw a surge in citizen participation. While Kerry may have conceded the election at 2:14 p.m., Nov. 3, a large portion of the population failed to accept the final results. They knew something was wrong. As one Virginia activist said, “This is simply not possible, the national results or here in Virginia.”
[As one DUmmie said, "I BEEEELEEEEEVE!!!]
INTERVIEW WITH TruthIsAll
[Interview conducted in the Rubber Room.]
Why all this energy devoted to the 2004 election?
[To provide LOTS of comedy material for the DUmmie FUnnies.]
I was appalled when the election was stolen from Gore in 2000. I had posted daily projections of my Election Model on DU in the four months leading up to the election. The projections were based on state and national polls. The final national model had Kerry 51.6 % of the two-party vote; the state model 51.8 %. The state model included a Monte Carlo simulation with a Kerry expected total of 337 electoral votes.
[All the Monte Carlo simulation proved was that Kerry won 51.8% of the time at the roulette wheel.]
The initial exit polls and the Iowa Election Markets showed that Kerry was a 3% winner. When Bush came from nowhere after 9 p.m. to win, I had this feeling of Déjà vu. So I decided to confirm the doubts using mathematical probability analysis, based on the preliminary exit poll data downloaded by Jonathan Simon.
[The Iowa Cattle Futures Markets show that Hillary will be nominated in '08.]
Anything you’d like to say in closing?
[They're coming to take me away, ha-ha!]
I’ll keep posting as long as I have something to say. If my work has in some small measure helped to raise awareness, then it’s all been worth it.
[If my work has in some small measure helped to keep DUmmies frustrated, then it's all been worth it.]
The miracle of timing that made the full set of national exit polls available to the world and the election fraud movement.
[This miracle rates right up there with Our Lady of Fatima.]
11/02/04
11:00 p.m. EM Server goes down. Exit Polls available on the Internet.
[Is that all? I was hoping the EM Server would go down and make the Petra Verkaik photos from her paid website available free on the Internet.]
11/04/04
12:25 a.m. Final National Exit Poll captured by Jonathan Simon. 3047 Respondents: Kerry 51% - Bush 48%
[That poll had insufficient data. It didn't include the write-in votes for Mary Carey.]
1:33 a.m. Edison Mitofsky Servers come back online effectively ending Internet access to the National Exit Polls.
[It was all a PLOT to keep the world from knowing that Kerry actually won in the Exit Polls.]
2:30* a.m. Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards addresses the crowd and nation promising to “fight for every vote.” (time approximate)
[2:40 a.m. Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards wastes a half hour fussing with his hair and staring at himself in his beauty compact.]
1:25 p.m. National Exit Poll revised by EM to take final election results into account 13,660 respondents: Kerry 48% - Bush 51%
[AHA! So Bush actually did win the exit polls. Well, that makes it official then. Whoever wins the exit polls wins the presidency. The actual voting results are just a mere technicality. It is the exit polls which really count.]
2:14 p.m. Kerry concedes the election to Bush.
[2:20 p.m. Kerry buys himself an extra-large jockstrap and a huntin' license.]
This remarkable sequence of events was not the beginning of the end but rather the end of the beginning. The remarkable intensity of research, analysis, and debate that energizes the modern day election fraud movement was born crying “foul!”
[Yes, yes. Quite remarkable...YAWN!]
FROM:
The Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling Simulation
by TruthIsAll
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllPollin...
It's for those who say: "Math was my worst subject in high school".
If you've ever placed a bet at the casino or race track,
or played the lottery, you already know the basics.
It's about probability.
It's about common sense.
It's not all that complicated.
[It's about hogwash.]
It's for individuals who have taken algebra, probability and statistics and want to see how they apply to election polling.
It's for graduates with degrees in mathematics, political science, an MBA, etc. who may or may not be familiar with simulation concepts. Simulation is a powerful tool for analyzing uncertainty- be it coin flipping or election polling.
It's for Excel spreadsheet users who enjoy creating math models.
It's for writers, blogs and politicians who seek the truth:
Robert Koehler, Brad from BradBlog, John Conyers, Barbara Boxer, Mark Miller, Fitrakis, Wasserman, USCV, Dopp, Freeman, Baiman, Simon, Alistair Thompson, Krugman, Keith Olberman, Mike Malloy, Randi Rhodes,Stephanie Miller, etc.
It's for Netizens who frequent Discussion Forums.
It's for those in the Media who are still waiting for editor approval to discuss documented incidents of vote spoilage, vote switching and vote suppression in recent elections and which are confirmed by impossible pre-election and exit poll deviations from the recorded vote.
It's for naysayers who promote faith-based hypotheticals in their unrelenting attempts to debunk the accuracy of the pre-election and exit polls.
[It's for obsessive DUmmies who refuse to accept the REALITY of the election results.]
I thought I was going nuts the evening of the election. Thank God I found DU...
[...which is Chock Full O' Nuts.]
Welcome! Lot's of good stuff to use there. With "the obvious becoming OBVIOUS" to the wider public, the theft of 2004 (and 2002 GA & 2000) becomes highly relevant. After all, we're talking about LEGITIMACY!!! Why should the people wait for the lazy CM to report this? They can just download the Excel program and prove it to themselves.
[I guess the attendants won't have to beat you with rubber mallets any more. They merely need to allow you to download that Excel program to keep you calm and secure in the knowledge that the program proves that Kerry really won.]
* Supporters need to "get out of it", the WH that is.
[You merely need to show them that Monte Carlo simulation to convince the EVIL Bushies to exit the White House.]
Election fraud: See it, hear it, speak it...Everyday, all day, 24/7.
[Election fraud obsession: See it, hear it, speak it...Everyday, all day, 24/7.]
The FUnniest thing about this thread is that if you go to the DUmmie GREATEST section, it is given the primo spot in the upper right which means this OBSESSION is really obsessing the DUmmies bigtime.
Posted on 12/29/2004 8:18:50 PM PST by doug from upland
I thought Kerry's victory's a fairy tale...one that I would really never see
What's the use in trying...we lose every time
Stealing an election is a crime
Then I heard Will Pitt...now I'm a believer
No, he is not, whacked out of his mind
Kerry won...I'm a believer, Pitt's no deceiver
Don't be blind
I thought the Ohio fraud's a given thing
Seems the more we vote, the more they cheat
They are out to get us...I hate the right wing
A curse on their moustaches I bring
Then I heard Will Pitt...now I'm a believer
No, he is not, whacked out of his mind
Kerry won...I'm a believer, Pitt's no deceiver
Don't be blind
(brief musical break)
They are out to get us...I hate the right wing
A curse on their moustaches I bring
I heard Will Pitt...now I'm a believer
No, he is not, whacked out of his mind
Kerry won...I'm a believer, Pitt's no deceiver
Don't be blind
Then I heard Will Pitt...now I'm a believer
No, he is not, whacked out of his mind
Oh, yes sir-eee, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a believer
Pitt's no deceiver...so I am a believer
I am a believer...I am a believer, believer, believer
(musical finish)
I'm sure that got "goodboy"'s attention.
That's not a Virginia activist - that's a Virginia lunatic. I worked the polls in the morning handing out sample ballots, then went home for lunch while someone else worked them, then returned in the evening. I saw the exit polls from elsewhere in the country, but not Virginia, while I was at lunch and became worried. As soon as I saw Virgina exit polls showing Kerry almost tied, I knew they were fake & that Bush was probably winning everywhere else too. Cheered me right up.
[Is "truth is all" a DUmmy, or is this mouth breather trying to state a half-truth: "Truth is all that needs to be reinstated on DU." A half truth, to be sure, because truth AND sanity need to be reinstated on DU (if ever they were present to begin with...).]
I reject your reality and substitute my own! - Adam Savage, Mythbusters
"Gore voters did not forget what happened in 2000. How could they? They came out in droves looking for revenge in 2004."
Maybe someone should tell the DUmmies that their base assumption is wrong. Most Gore voters probably were annoyed when he refused to concede for a month and decided the guy was a moron who didn't deserve to be president anyway.
He had his Monte Carlo Method that showed, in vivid color and beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Kerry had a 99.99998% chance of winning the election. It didn't matter if every single poll showed Kerry behind, his "math" would prove that that even statistically bumped Kerry's chances.
He even told a few (very few) DUmmie naysayers that he actually threw out the polls where Kerry was behind, because "they were outliers".
But the rest of the DUmmies would thank him for posting the numbers and lifting their spirits. They would drool all over the collossal intelligence this guy had.
I didn't know wether to laugh, wet myself, or puke. But there it was in black and white and it was constant and daily.
I kept thinking that this guy was history in DUmmie land after GWB won, but to my surprise he came out right away with a posting that HE was right and the whole world was wrong, and the DUmmie lemmings came right back.
Good stuff. Funny stuff!!
Ah! The Monkees. Fun fact: Monkee Mike's mother was the one who invented white-out for typing. Of course, with computers, who uses white-out any more?
DUmmies do:
The DUmmy's should have ask for a brain for Christmas.
That being said, there were a few things in your post that I'd like to clear up.
1) The margin of error on a poll with N=3000 is about 1.8%, which is a far cry from 3%.
2) People often misunderstand the concept of "margin of error" anyway. Just to set the record straight:
After taking a sample, you end up with a range of probabilities in the shape of a bell curve, with the total area under the curve being equal to 1. The margin of error is that distance from the mean that, taken in both positive and negative directions, covers an area of 0.95. So while it's true that 19 out of 20 polls will be accurate within the margin of error and 1 out of 20 polls will not be, it is much more likely that a poll will be exactly accurate than it will be off by the full margin of error. It is also much more likely that the 1 out of 20 inaccurate polls will be, say, 1 point off than 10 points off. For example, 1 out of 20 polls sampling 3000 individuals will be off by more than 1.8%... but only 1 out of 100 will be off by more than 2.4%.
A much more compelling argument (which you made) is that polls are only valid if the sample is truly representative... if each member of the population has an equal probability of being sampled. Since this is never the case, every poll is skewed towards those who are most likely to be sampled.
Exit polls, in fact, often deliberately go out of their way to skew the sample. It's not terribly useful to poll an area that's solid Republican or solid Democrat. You already know how most of the people in the area will vote, and polls become less accurate the more the sample tends towards uniformity. (Let's say you're sampling 100 people. If 50 of them choose option A and 50 of them choose option B, you can have a certain degree of confidence that 50% of the entire population prefers A. If, on the other hand, 99 of them choose A and 1 chooses B, your confidence that 99% of the population prefers A is much lower.) Therefore exit polls focus on "swing" areas. These areas are not representative of the whole, which is why raw data from exit polling is virtually useless... and why the DUmmies are idiots for relying on it to "prove" that Kerry won.
I believe that you and Kevkrom are correct as to the main reason the exit polls were bad. Bad sampling.
Golly gosharootie, so with all that "proof," when is the inaguration for sKerry?
Woo hoo!
/sarcasm and disbelief
They are truly delusional, there is one poster saying that Chappaquidick was Mary Jo Koepechne's fault for getting in the car with Oldsmobile Ted.
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