Posted on 03/29/2006 8:47:02 AM PST by JewishRighter
The way I'm seeing things, the political equation is that if you're for the illegals (with whatever variety of amnesty/no enforcement plan), you supposedly pick up the illegal vote with a percentage of legal hispanics. At the same time, you lose some white/conservative/republican votes. Reverse policy, reverse the consequences.
So if you're one of these congressional weathervanes trying to figure it out, you do some math and cast your vote.
It seems to me that, at least at this point in our history, the percentages should favor the white/conservative/republican side. But that's true only if you're only looking at raw numbers (ie: more of "us" than them) and only focusing on one issue or factor. If you add in the activism on their side, they get a boost. Add the fact that "our" side works for a living and doesn't have as much time for activism and they get another advantage. Then you have the biggest factor, which is the built-in our overwhelming aversion to the idea of a democrat majority. Which means that we are likely to go and vote for the Repubs even if they woos out on this issue, just to keep the barbarians at bay.
I think it may be time to bite the bullet and say, we will just have to accept a loss of Republican power (which has been largely squandered anyway) by letting our congressmen know that we are simply not going to the polls in November if they cave on this one. It seems to me the only way, borrowing the National Review motto, to "stand athwart history and yell STOP". Yes, it may mean suffering the insufferable liberals for a couple of terms. But it may be the only medicine capable of bringing accountability back to our government, which is, IMHO, no longer a government of the people.
2ndly. You base everything on a completely unproven assumption. Last time the Republicans lost the House they were out of power 42 years. The is NO guarantee in losing the House you would ever get it back. The rule making and fund raising powers of a sitting Congress are awesome. It is utterly politically naive to advocate "losing so we can win later". You should be fighting tooth and nail to win now. The US House bill is much better then the US Senate bill. The Illegal Immigration crowd should reign WAY back on their emotions and start acting like adults. You do not "win" in politics by surrendering everything the second things get tough. That is the behavior of children, not mature adults.
The illegals coming in are seeking to replace us period and yes the GOP is in serious danger regardless of what a few bots say.
"Nonsense."
Oh, come on, tell me how you really feel.
Mind you, I don't agree with the calculus, I am only remarking on what is the "conventional wisdom". I think there is some truth to it, but it is not a universal truth in any sense, that Latinos will vote in a monolithic block. There are many very conservative and/or Catholic Latino legal immigrants who are among the most vocal opponents of Amnesty, etc. That is why I said "a percentage of legal hispanics" because there are some liberals among them as I'm sure you'd agree.
As for the second point, we have followed this path, surrendering principles for power for about a dozen years. Sure, there have been some gains (welfare reform, tax cuts, egs.). But at the same time, we have seen our government and budget grow to monstrous proportions and have seen our political and national culture steadily decline. As for asking the other side to grow up, its my turn to say "nonsense". It ain't gonna happen. It is the DNA of the left to behave that way, as tantrums get results in our current nanny state system.
My guess is a couple of terms out of power is a naive estimate of time the Republicans are likely to be absent from Federal government. However, if it does happen, the Democrats would reverse any small gains made by the Republicans on immigration reform as well as other issues. I've been a Republican for enough years to know that Cheney simply raised his shotgun a little higher than Republicans usually do. They usually aim for their feet.
Muleteam1
You and MN Johnnie may be right on the issue about the time of being out of power. I tend to rely more on the fact that if the Dems get in, they will screw things up even faster and lead to a return for the elephants. One other thing I consider is that there will hopefully be at least one more Bush Supreme Court appointment and many other federal appointments before he rides off into the sunset. As the balance of power is now, a more conservative federal judiciary should hold things in check until we can return the Repubs to power.
"The US House bill is much better then the US Senate bill."
"Boehner hints a back down on 'amnesty'"
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1605381/posts
Uh, er, you were saying....
Will read later.
Good post. When it comes to making border security into a national security issue, my fear is, it doesn't resonate with the American people because it hasn't become "real" yet. Meaning that you can't quite connect the dots between Southern border vulnerability and an actual ist attack. Now, for my money, the fact that there is a significant crime problem is enough to invoke security, but I don't think it's enough to shift the terms and allegiances of this debate. Sad to say, but we don't get aroused to action until the enemy actually draws blood.
Yes, unfortunately people only learn lessons when they see blood. Not to try and evangelize your comment, as I note you may be Jewish, but as a Christian I have said this very thing for many years. BTW, my son-in-law is Jewish (and conservative) and we love him a lot.
Muleteam1
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