Intrade odds going crazy for McCain!!!!!!!

Intrade ^ | 9/8/08 | NYCfearsome

[NYCFearsome]

Massive swing in Mccain's favor...

[NYCFearsome]

Two days ago the odds were 60/40 Obama/Mccain. They are almost even now at 50/50. A swing of 20 points in early mroning trading. Take a look at Iowa electronics Markets and News Futures. I think CNN has their own Futures Market. I will keep an eye on all and updat regularly.

[DiogenesLaertius]

Democrats love to refer to intrade when its convenient. Intrade is never right until after the events have happened and in this case it doesn’t say much about the election, but McCain catching up is definitely an awesome sign.

[Momaw Nadon]

WOW!

IMPRESSIVE!

[alloysteel]

Probably one of the more meaningful “polls” out there. Not definitive, by any means, because like any other poll, it can be skewed by an extraordinary influx that reflects more ambitious hope than real expectation.

The “Bradley effect” may be discounted in this instance. The bid has nothing to do with the performance in the voting booth, as there is no “exit poll” to lie about.

[igoramus08]

McCain 50.5
0bama 49.5
now

[riverdawg]

I occasionally look at the odds on Intrade as a complement to the usual polls hyped in the MSM. However, keep in mind that the heavy favorite for Republican VP nominee on Intrade was - depending on exactly when one looked - either Romney or Pawlenty the day before McCain's announcement. Intrade odds are often highly volatile from day to day, in part because it is a thinly traded market.

[scooby321]

I bought Mc Cain when it was at 40%.

After I saw Sarah campaigning.

[DiogenesLaertius]

I cleaned up in 2004. I bought Bush right after Abu Gharib when he was like at around 20-30. I knew that Kerry wouldn’t have what it would take to win in the end.

[Kevmo]

If they were at 50/50 earlier, then things have gone back a little. This is a relatively high volume set of contracts, so the fact that 52 + 46 x= 100 shows some level of current indecision in the market for now. But it’s all good... this means there’s still a chance to take some of their money and support McCain/Palin at the same time. Win-win for us.

Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 52.1 52.5 52.5 334520 -4.1
2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 46.1 47.5 46.1 465960 +2.6

[taildragger]

Bad News today on Glenn Beck however....

Obama's team has been signing up new voter heavily in "Red States".

They are going for a reverse of 2000'.

Obama wins Electorally not Popular Vote.

[Henchster]

I took a different approach a few days ago. I sold Obama short. That way, if the Clintons some how elbow him out, I win instantly. I also sold the "Palin Withdrawn" contract short, (I'd double my money if I closed out today) and went long on "Biden Withdrawn." (which is down a bit, so I'm behind on that position.) There is no way Palin is going to be removed, and Rudy was right, Biden should have "got it in writing."

There are some good opportunities on Intrade for savvy FReepers.

[The Louiswu]

Biden is going to get “ill” or have some personal family issue arise. He will drop out (on a Friday after 5pm) - Hillary will anguish and on the following Tuesday (so as to not interrupt Monday Night Football) she will announce that she will accept that VP slot (there by voiding the decision of the delegates at the convention) and help out her good friend BO.

[Henchster]

If you buy 100 contracts of McCain at 46.8, it will cost you $46.80 (plus a small transaction fee.) If McCain wins, you will get $100 credited to your account, so you will have netted $53.2 - again, minus a small fee.

I sold Obambi short, which means I took the $61.90, (yesterday's price) and IF he wins I will be debited $100, for a net loss of $38.10. WHEN he loses, I will get to keep the $61.90 as profit, again, minus a small fee.

[anton]

I think the idea behind these “events” gambling polls is that a lot of people have better information on certain kinds of events and they go and put their money behind it and that moves the odds. So if you are talking about the outcome of some legal matter, there will be people more knowledgeable on the subject than the general public and they will be willing to put money behind their belief.

I don’t think a general election event fits that model unless it was the pollsters doing the gambling.

[anton]

Having said that, I think those shorting B Hussien yesterday made a darn good bet at 61/39.