Posted on 10/07/2008 7:27:45 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
I don't think I've articulated this theory on the blog. I've, so far, reserved it for conversations with my friends. But for quite a while I've had a theory that Barack Obama would win this election if he ever, even for a moment, convinced 50% of the voters in this country to vote for him. Here's my reasoning. It's obvious that the Bush administration has been a failure of epic proportions. It's also obvious that the Gingrich Revolution is over and has failed. In the natural order of things, the Democrats will get a turn at the White House. Moreover, Barack Obama is a uniquely talented politician and leader. There's simply no reason why he shouldn't win, and McCain offers nothing convincing to suggest otherwise. Almost any Democrat would be favored to win this election over almost any Republican. Obama is certainly favored to beat McCain.
But...Obama is different. He's biracial. He's got a funny name. He's had a meteoric rise and doesn't have a tremendous amount of experience. He's urban and urbane. He's cosmopolitan, he's Ivy League. In short, he has a cultural disconnect with a lot of American voters, including a lot of traditional Democrats. 'Cultural disconnect' could be a polite way of saying that this country has a lot of rednecks. And it does. But I don't mean that term to be so harsh. A lot of people just have a hard time computing the idea of a guy like Barack Obama being president of the United States. A lot of people have to overcome a feeling of unease or discomfort. And that unease has held Obama's numbers down in both the primaries and the general election.
But, the way I figure it, once someone overcomes that feeling of cultural alienation, even for a moment, and comes to accept the idea of Barack Obama as President of the United States, there is no going back. The argument in his favor is obvious, and no amount of fear-mongering is going to change the mind of someone once they have let their mind be opened. In other words, once a voter gets to the point where they will consider and accept the idea of a half-black president, the biggest obstacle has been overcome. At that point, you have to rely on winning the argument on its merits. You are now judging Obama by the content of his character and the worth of his ideas.
And once Obama convinced 50% of the people to do that? He had this thing won.
Let's hope I am right.
This puts your premise that he is over 50 in the polls in reality, but he’s not, with a 10% at least oversample of Dems, he is nowhere near 50%. So its bull.
I had no idea GW was running this year.
This is liberal cocktail party poppycock.
There’s probably close to a 10% gap in registered Ds to Rs right now, so those polls that oversample are not out of line with reality, IMO.
I don’t take every poll as gospel, and some of them DO suck, but you can’t discount the fact that EVERY poll is showing Obama with a lead right now. Some within the margin of error, but leads nonetheless.
Here’s to hoping McCain can close the gap, but my real concern is protecting our GOP senators. We REALLY need to have a reliable filibuster in the senate.
Oh yeah and a little other thingy, a birth certificate stating he is an American citizen!
[Obama would win this election if he ever, even for a moment, convinced 50% of the voters in this country to vote for him.]
Well, I guess he is going to lose then, b/c there is no way he will get 50% of the vote. If fact, I think at the very best, he will get 47% of the vote.
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| Obama has won. There is no reason to vote. |
Somone told me this would be a black and white vote. Every brown skinned brown eyed voter is voting Obama. McCain is playing to the wrong crowd. Preaching to the quier will not win this election. pubbies should have planned to run more minorities up the ladder in their own party to combat an election like this but sadly they did not.i can count on one hand the number of dark eyed republican pundants. after supporting both legal and illegal immigration what else should republicans expect and they did not prepare.
He needs to lay off the sauce.
Tipping point to be sure - for a major loss.
I so hope we win this thing.
Their f___ing heads will explode.
I would call this wishful thinking. The old saying is “you can wish in one hand and s... in the other and see which one gets full first”.
...he's Donny... AND Marie!
You mean like Secretaries of State Colin Powell and Condaleeza Rice, and Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal of Louisiana?
Not enough. they dont have party people of colors out in front. just saw palin in fl on tv and not one dark face in crowd. everyone ive talked to is saying this is a black and white race.
remember michelle obama saying “i need more white people on stage with me” . they knew they had black vote and pushed for white vote.
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