THE COMING WAVE (An interview with Mother Abigail)

Original Work | 7-6-09 | James Oscar

[James Oscar]

THE COMING WAVE

(An Interview With Mother Abigail)

I came in from the wilderness, a creature void of form.
"Come in," she said, "I'll give you…”

Bob Dylan

2006

While researching the New Media, I became fascinated with the development of the “Flu Blog”. It seemed to represent – not only the direction – but the form and structure of the changing media in the Internet Age.

My original thesis was to write a series of articles detailing, as thoroughly as possible, the creation of the “Flu Blog” – from inception to mainstream assimilation.

However, as often happens in war and creativity, events overtook the plan.

My derailment occurred in the following manor:

By December of 2006 I had researched, compiled and databased every conceivable factoid relating to the early years of flu blogging. I felt ready to publish my first article and on the second day of 2007 I started writing and soliciting feedback on a website called CurrentEvents.

I was very pleased with the finished product believing that both technically and factually I had established the main point of my thesis – control of the media was being altered forever and that the evolution was being driven from the bottom up.

Here is that article:

--------------------------------------------

2007

EXPLORING THE NEW MEDIA'S EVOLUTIONARY PATH
-THE BIRTH OF THE FLU BLOG -

Every beginning is a consequence - every beginning ends some thing

(Paul Valery)

In February of 2003 newspapers, cable news and radio were the interface between the American public and breaking news. It had long been such.

No one set out to destroy the relevancy of these institutions.

Like so much change it just happened. Passion and thirst mixed with a witches blend of electronic gadgetry created a new paradigm.

A paradigm where power was snatched from the media elite and taken by the citizenry - and no one has ever looked back.

Until now.

MARCH 2003

The world was on the eve of war. Not the televised war of the First Gulf War, but the first internet war.

Many homes and offices were now wired to the net and the Internet was to become the CB of the 21st century. Far across the immense spectrum of the Internet - discussion nodes filled with speculation and rumor.

A very strange vibe was brewing.

A strange vibe indeed. This was March of 2003 - this was to be the time of change.

It began as little more than a few whispers among the cacophony of war talk. A post on the 13th here, a post on the 14th here.

The earliest and most followed post was placed on the 13th. Within three days, this thread had received a couple of hundred comments, as the severity of the situation became apparent.

It was now the Ides of March, and this story unfolds - for the transformation is about to begin.

In the strangest place.

THE OLD PARADIGM

As the concept of the "Discussion Forum" caught on across the growing Internet, a couple of standard formulas became the norm.

The first was a single poster copying and pasting a news article from the Main Stream Media and then adding comments. This early Blog form still exists today.

The second formula developed largely during the "Clinton Scandals".

Liberals and conservatives separated and started their own discussion forums where they would post an article from the Drudge Report or the New York Times and then proceed to beat it to death with comments.

There were a few science centered Blogs, but they also followed these same two formats. And they were out in the periphery - with few members and very few visitors.

No it was the mega sites where the action was - a huge group of diverse members, lots of visitor traffic and a stable infrastructure.

The elements were now all in place for the perfect storm.

THE TRANSFORMATION

This is the way the world ends Not with a bang, but a whimper

T. S. Eliot

It was the Ides of March, late in the night - on the hottest conservative forum on the Internet - that she appeared.

In an obscure section of that web site she posted a cryptically titled thread, made a comment about Ebola, a comment about God and then posted an advisory about a "worldwide health threat."

In a section that had seen only seven threads in the past seven days, she wove a strange, exotic and haunting thread for two days.

Then on the 17th of March she posted the first of 20 highly technical medical threads:

1. Precognition

2. Hong Kong Health Secretary calls for calm as SARS cases double, (83 up from 42 on Sunday)

3. LATEST SARS UPDATE - DETAILED MEDICAL INFORMATION

4. BREAKING BIG: POSSIBLE PATHOGEN DETECTED IN SARS CASE

5. Killer Virus (SARS) Identified

6. Seven victims of mystery pneumonia stayed on same floor of Hong Kong hotel

7. Guangdong doctor linked to SARS outbreak

8. President of the American Society of Microbiology on SARS - "Everything says it is airborne."

9. SARS REACHES HONG KONG SCHOOLS - 32 NEW CASES (IS THE BUG OUT OF THE BOX?)

10. CDC increases SARS cases to 22 in U.S.

11. CHINA CONFIRMS CASES AND DEATHS (SARS) - HONG KONG SITUATION DETERIORATING - 22 CASES IN US

12. Causative agent of SARS virus isolated from lung tissue - test is reliably identifying cases

13. SARS cases on the rise in Canada, may be spreading even further, 12 people showing symptoms

14. VIETNAM NEW SARS HOT ZONE, U.S. Warns Citizens in Vietnam To leave

15. SARS cases on the rise in Canada, may be spreading even further, 12 people showing symptoms

16. Singapore - 740 people quarantined, 14 new cases on Monday, Hospitals close, SARS spreads

17. 37 In United States May Have SARS

18. SARS epidemic spreads in Taiwan, three other CDC officials have become ill.

19. WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF SARS? ONE VIRUS, TWO VIRUSES WORKING IN CONCERT, OR A DETERMINANT UNKNOWN

20. Killer-flu a 'white terror': Expert, "It is the worst medical disaster I have ever seen.

21. Preliminary Clinical Description of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

- and over the next eleven days guided both lay and professionals, transformed the web site, crushed the paradigm and changed the way we interface with breaking news forever.

Oh, and there is that strange aspect of her name.

Every literate person on the Web new and understood, not only what it meant, but the endless nuances that lay associated with that name, in this context.

She signed on as Mother Abigail.

THE NEW PARADIGM

Among the hundreds of posters and thousands of viewers on the Mother Abigail threads were; Doctors, Lawyers, Nurses, Pharmacists, Veterinarians and Health Care workers of every stripe.

It became apparent quite early that this was not to be the normal flu talk. This is an early post:

"Doug had an interesting observation in picking a Morbillivirus as a likely agent. Hendra and Nipah are both zoonotic and it might well be a mutant of the Paramyxoviridae family.

Symptoms are right.

"Just because I have had tooooo much coffee, I will mention that both Hendra and Nipah have been given their own genus (Henipavirus).

Henipavirus becomes the fourth genus within the Paramyxovirinae subfamily of the Paramyxoviridae family. The other genera within the subfamily are Rubulavirus, Morbillivirus and Respirovirus."

52 posted on 03/17/2003 10:49:23 PM PST by Mother Abigail"

And so it began.

Why was this different? Because local MD's discovered ProMed, because an army of netizens began searching every corner of our world for information, because citizens of other countries began translating information that would normally be missed - because the whole was larger than the sum of the parts.

One poster who tried to write about Mother Abigail soon after the incident, and was quickly banned, called it SARS Central.

Sounds right to me.

She hijacked a web site, created a forum for the "in depth" discussion of Virology, Taxonomy and Microbiology. But interactive.

And it is that interactivity that opened the flood gates. Now it was possible to monitor breaking news in a far off land, have experts opine on that news, react to their opinions and post information of your own.

NBC Nightly News was never going to be the same.

The "Flu Blog" was born.

DENOUEMENT

Eleven days. From March the 15th to March the 26 she posted, wrote and guided. Then with the same grace and dignity that marked every word she ever wrote - she said goodby.

"It appears I have worked myself out of a job.

Many of you are now posting threads on SARS, and the information seems to be flowing in an accurate and timely manner.

So I will take this opportunity to thank all the posters for their hard work and diligence.

NOTE: I have tried to answer all the e-mails, except of course, the many that asked for personal information. Hope I was of some help

Stay Strong, Come and see me and - bring all your nice friends.......

20 posted on 03/26/2003 8:12:57 PM PST by Mother Abigail"

Some help indeed....

Mother Abigail had become, in the wink of an eye, the focal point for much praise and some derision. Then she was gone.

A year or so later she began posting, from time to time, on various web sites - always modest - never speaking of those days again.

She continues to this day.

-------------------------------------------------

MORE....

I anticipated a flood of emails either disputing my research or my thesis. Ever confident in my work I eagerly prepared for the debate. For the next few months my yahoo mailbox was smoking – but the questions were not what I had envisioned. In fact, I could not have been more wrong.

The e-mails all asked the same questions and they were all about Mother Abigail. Did I know her? Who did she work for? Had I met her? Basically the same e-mail over and over again.

This pretty much let all the wind out of my sails for quite a while. Because the truth is that I knew nothing of her – had exchange a couple of brief “web-based” e-mails and although I had read every word she had ever written on the subject, my knowledge of the person was ZIP.

The only consistent trait of my personality, as several of my ex-wives will tell you, is that I have no great fidelity to any concept. So I fell back and reviewed my goals.

After a season of Tanqueray and tonic I decided to change my focus.

2008

Via e-mail I asked MA if she would be willing to allow me to interview her and write an article about her. My operating paradigm at that time was that this lady was a seminal pioneer of the New Media and a scientist of serious reputation.

How naïve I was.

In the late summer of 2008 I was invited to visit her at her home on Lake Tahoe. It was a visit that would change my life.

DISCLAIMER

The following is a summary of conversations that occurred from August 2008 until June of 2009. All the words are mine and mine alone. When I asked MA if she would like to edit my work or review it for errors – she declined. Prior to the final draft I asked MA for a quote and she declined but requested that I include her favorite poem – “While the Rain Is Easy” – which I did.

"While the Rain Is Easy" is from a collection of Tokuisei Verse called "My River". It is used with permission from the Author.

[James Oscar]

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114481

Concurrent threads.

[Jet Jaguar]

Ping

[Smokin' Joe]

Thanks for the ping, Jet!

Paging Mother Abigail...

[Smokin' Joe]

Ping...

[RandallFlagg]

Hmmm.

[Myrddin]

I remember the threads. It was a good excuse to dust off my education in molecular biology, immunology and microbiology. Many others did the same. The SARS and Ebola-like outbreak in Africa certainly captured the attention of many skilled parties. A few appeared to be right in the middle of pertinent research or employed in an epidemiological line of work. Thankfully, the outbreak of the Ebola-like organism seemed to burn out.

[neverdem]

thanks, bfl

[MurrietaMadman]

From little acorns...

Just today I received this email. It’s that concurrent breakout part that grabbed my attention!

Please find enclosed information on our upcoming International Swine Flu Conference in Washington, DC on August 19-21, 2009.

Delegates are coming from US, Europe, Africa and Asia Pacific.

In addition to insightful presentations and dynamic panel discussions, you can also choose from over 30 concurrent breakout sessions that includes:

Breakout 1 Mass Fatality Management Planning

Breakout 2. Business Continuity Planning

Breakout 3. Continuity of Operations (COOP) and Continuity of Government Planning

Breakout 4. Emergency Management Services

Breakout 5. Law Enforcement Agencies

Breakout 6. First Responders: Fire Department

Breakout 7. First Responders: Public Works

Breakout 8. 911 Call Center Services

Breakout 9. Hospital and Emergency Medical Services

Breakout 10. Workplace Planning

Breakout 11. School/University Pandemic Planning

Breakout 12. Airlines, Travel, Airport, Quarantine and Border Health Services

Breakout 13. Infectious Medical Waste

Breakout 14. Swine Flu: Agriculture Perspective & Interventions

` and many more.

If you have any queries do not hesitate to contact me at 202-536-5000 or email me at

jacksonj@swineflulabs.us

To register for this event simply fill in the attached registration form and fax it back to me at

202-280-1239.

For more information on the event, please visit http://new-fields.com/ISFC

Regards,

Jessica Jackson

Swine Flu Task Force

New-Fields Exhibitions, Inc.

1101 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 6th Floor

Washington, DC 20004

T: (202) 536-5000 F: (202) 280-1239

jacksonj@swineflulabs.us

www.New-Fields.com

[James Oscar]

"In addition to insightful presentations and dynamic panel discussions, you can also choose from over 30 concurrent breakout sessions that includes:"

What an odd choice of words.

[James Oscar]

WHILE THE RAIN IS EASY

Winds are hard
To recreate
Once cast

August 2008

Mother Abigail has a beautiful townhouse near the Governors' mansion in Nevada's capital city - Carson City. But it is her "cabin" at Lake Tahoe that she loves and nurtures. As I drove up to meet her for the first time there on that hot August day last year my thoughts were very scattered. I make my living with words - but I have no background as an interviewer and very little desire to be one. But "follow the story" had me driving up highway 50 with about 10 million other lost souls on that weekend - bumper to bumper.

Science writing is a gentle art. You learn as you write. The terminology, the doctrine and the search are all absorbed like cool water on a hot day. So I felt certain that I would be able to communicate at an educated level - even though I had absolutely no idea what I was looking for. Or so I though....

WORDS ARE THE SYMBOLS OF TRUTH:

In order for me to have this conversation with you (the reader) we have to share certain mindsets and presuppositions that will allow us frame our discussion in common terms. I did not share that Weltanschauung with Mother Abigail at first and because it is central to understanding her - I will attempt to teach you (the way she has taught me) to see things from a slightly different perspective.

[Judith Anne]

Watching the thread with enormous interest. Thank you.

[James Oscar]

THE FINGERPRINTS OF GOD

There is religion and there is science. There is creationism and there is evolution. Seems pretty clear cut to me but, as we often learn in life, the black and white choices can be terribly muddled in the middle.

To MA creation is an ongoing process. She smiles gently at those who argue for or against evolution/creationism. She explains that it is only our poor perceptual abilities that constantly force us into these dichotomous choices.

She explains it to me by using the following example:

Science vs/ God - no matter which side you start from you are destined to meet at a point that is defined by the number 4.66920160910299067185320382. (Sure and "thanks for all the fish".. I laugh to myself)

She relates that a young man named Mitchell Feigenbaum settled that entire question long ago. It seems that Mr. Feigenbaum (using science) discovered the fingerprints of God.

[James Oscar]

You are very welcome. I hope you enjoy.

[James Oscar]

When you search for God you seek perfection and transcendence. In science you search for universal truths. So far so good...

What young Mr. Feigenbaum did was discover that they are the same. Pick your favorite word to describe the results but here is the play by play.

The Feigenbaum Constant was discovered in 1975 by a whiz kid on pocket calculator. In this veil of tears we find two dynamic systems order and chaos - with a whole bunch of stuff in the middle moving between those two systems.

Well it appears (you can check it for yourself) that as any system moves from Order to Chaos there is a rhythm that is both perfect and transcendental. It is called the Feigenbaum Constant. It is so universal and so exact in its expression that it has been called the fingerprints of God.

When you go to explain how such perfection occurs in the movement of fluid in a pipeline, a plague of locusts and every other dynamic system in the universe - you might want to bring a lunch.

See it doesn’t matter. Words will just get in your way. Chaos - MA explains that these mathematical rhythms being found at the edge of chaos simply illustrates how dichotomous our reasoning is. We can’t predict what will happen past a certain number of variables and so we call it Chaos.

She teaches that there are rhythms in the Chaos and it is only our lack of perception that fails us.

[MurrietaMadman]

What an odd choice of words.

Weren't they?

Thanks for keeping track of these events. They were dangerous times for microbiologists as I recall.

[James Oscar]

Using perception she explains evolution.

MA is a very religious woman yet she slips seamlessly back and forth between the two worlds. It has been very hard for me to grasp that continuity. I am a non-religious person and have a bit of a problem following some of the finer points.

However, she explains current human evolution in terms that I follow with ease.

Evolutionary Differentiation In Cognitive Function

"The level of understanding past and present determines the possible level of understanding the future. Non-conscious effects of the past, as produced by classical conditioning, can result in same-level anticipations of future (e.g. Pavlov's dogs salivated before meat powder was present). Conscious awareness of past episodes, however, can result in an awareness of potential future episodes. Mental time travel into the future may be achieved through extrapolation from similar past episodes (prediction by analogy) or, more important for the understanding of humans' extraordinary impact on the world over the last 10,000 years, through the application of semantic knowledge (prediction by theory) about the laws that govern nature."

Thomas Suddendorf
University of Waikato
1994

An examination of the cognitive perception of the human species reveals a wide spectrum of differentiation. Like any biological variation, some changes prove to be beneficial to the individual and others prove damaging or even fatal.

Man has risen to be the dominant species on Earth by natural selection of those individuals with more beneficial cognitive skills.

A careful examination of those perceptual skills which have been most beneficial to mans ascendance reveals:

1. There has been a small amount of advancement in three-dimensional ability. The dexterity necessary to paint on cave walls and fashion stone tools has not, in large measure, been radically improved.

2. Sensory function such as smell, vision and hearing are difficult to quantify, but improvements, if they exist at all, are small. Some might even argue for a diminishing of ability.

3. It is the realm of fourth-dimensional perception where the human species has focused its evolutionary development.

[James Oscar]

I don’t mean to get sidetracked on these issues but it is important that you understand how interlocked all these natural processes are in MA’s world.

When you speak to her you hear a very tidy understanding of our place in time and space.

She does not believe that God/Nature micromanages every aspect of life - but she does firmly adhear to the belief of a predictable future.

MA insists that human development is directional and purpose driven.

Which leads me into the heart of our discussion and brings the circle back to epidemiology.

[Oorang]

DISCLAIMER The following is a summary of conversations that occurred from August 2008 until June of 2009. All the words are mine and mine alone. ...

I'm confused which sometimes is easily done. Where is the "summary of conversations"?

[James Oscar]

August 2008

As we sat in her garden overlooking the most beautiful body of water on earth we chatted about the SARS days and about her current life and what she was working on.

Having long ago retired from the medical profession MA now occupies herself with her gardening in the summer and, of all things, playing video poker in the winter.

I explained that a lot of people were curious about her because of the SARS threads - and she seemed amazed that anyone would care about something so trivial. I tried to explain my work and how important I believe those original treads were to the development of the media. But, I believe to this day, she considers it a bit goofy.

Nice polite chatter - two strangers putting on their best manners. Mine were forced hers were polished and elegant.

When the talk slowed and the sun became a little slanted, I ventured into the realm of H1N1, H5N1, Ebola and AIDS.

I am not certain how many hours passed as I listened to MA. I should have taken notes or recorded the time or something but I just sat there slaked jawed as a yokel seeing his first Unicorn.

Never changing her manor she proceeded to tell a riveting tale of current and future events that left me physically weak and emotionally empty. I don't really remember what I felt except numb. Very numb.

Strangely I wanted to leave. For the moment I had forgotten all the trouble required to get me in that garden and why it was so important to me. I just wanted to leave.

But the sun was fading and the air was getting that alpine nip so when offered a real drink I quickly accepted. I went to the rent-a-car and grabbed my jacket and gathered my soul just a bit.

The problem was that I believed her - every nuance of her reading of events struck me as absolutely accurate. Somewhere in my business brain a little synapse was asking a very important question "how in the hell can you ever tell that story?"

A drink, a cordial goodbye and promise to visit again and I was gone. Now driving down that stupid mountain I reflected on my decision to visit and my absolute certainty that I would return. Then I remembered something I had written two years ago (having called her by her given name all day) - and it was not the night air that sent the chill up my spine

"She signed on as Mother Abigail".