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Boomers - Winter is Coming
Raging Debate ^ | 9-13-09 | Jim Quinn

Posted on 07/13/2009 9:03:28 AM PDT by iThinkBig

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The article has some convincing evidence this is the track we are on. I liked the article in it's whole, not in 100% agreement on when the problems really began to occur. I see the problems beginning with Nixon taking the US off of the gold standard in 1971 as the beginning of the finance economy, expansion through debt as an economic model. As we are finding out, expansions by debt issuance never last, especially with a depreciating currency and inflation exceeding wages over the last four decades. The charts are fantastic.
1 posted on 07/13/2009 9:03:28 AM PDT by iThinkBig
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To: iThinkBig
THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH ABOUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA

AN AMERICAN TEA PARTY SPEECH FOR JULY 4TH

2 posted on 07/13/2009 9:09:15 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: iThinkBig

GREAT article.


3 posted on 07/13/2009 9:11:55 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Too sick for words!)
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To: qam1; ItsOurTimeNow; PresbyRev; Fraulein; StoneColdGOP; Clemenza; m18436572; InShanghai; xrp; ...
Xer Ping

Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social (and sometimes nostalgic) aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.

Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.

4 posted on 07/13/2009 9:15:53 AM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: iThinkBig
The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed,

Let's hope so.

Maybe next time we could try a representative republic.

5 posted on 07/13/2009 9:16:58 AM PDT by HIDEK6
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To: iThinkBig

6 posted on 07/13/2009 9:18:07 AM PDT by allmendream ("Wealth is EARNED not distributed, so how could it be redistributed?")
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To: iThinkBig
Barack Obama became the 1st Generation Xer to be elected President of the United States.

Barack Obama and Governor Palin are Boomers. 1946-1964.

7 posted on 07/13/2009 9:18:29 AM PDT by ansel12 (Romney (guns)"instruments of destruction with the sole purpose of hunting down and killing people")
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To: iThinkBig

To be honest, I think that we do go through generational cycles of privilege and hardship. But there are too many details in this analysis that I disagree with for me to put much credence in it.

Yes, there are such cycles. And, yes, we are entering a period of crisis. But I don’t find this particular analysis especially helpful.


8 posted on 07/13/2009 9:18:37 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: HIDEK6

Hey Flower Children, remember how you used to say “don’t trust anyone over 30”? Remember “Wild in the Streets”? You were going to thin the heard of old people. Well, it’s kind like Pharoah’s Tenth Plague.


9 posted on 07/13/2009 9:19:31 AM PDT by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: iThinkBig

If the U.S. goes down the World will be entering into the 2nd Dark Ages. Not a pretty prospect.

This “little baby” is ours to deal with.

There CAN be NO Recovery until Obozo is out of office.

Sooner the better.


10 posted on 07/13/2009 9:21:57 AM PDT by Texas Fossil (The last time I looked, this is still Texas where I live.)
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To: iThinkBig

A bit overwrought. We’re going to go the way of the British Empire. We won’t rule the world anymore. So it goes.


11 posted on 07/13/2009 9:22:00 AM PDT by Wolfie
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To: iThinkBig

I read Strauss and Howe’s book when it first came out.


12 posted on 07/13/2009 9:24:22 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: massgopguy
Hey Flower Children, remember how you used to say “don’t trust anyone over 30”?

The 9.4 million veterans of our last great warrior generation (the boomers), outnumbered the "Flower Children" who weren't that numerous, you need to look at who the media was that shaped your perceptions of the time.

13 posted on 07/13/2009 9:26:03 AM PDT by ansel12 (Romney (guns)"instruments of destruction with the sole purpose of hunting down and killing people")
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To: Lazamataz

And we got one huge mistake in office to kick off The Fourth Turning......


14 posted on 07/13/2009 9:32:53 AM PDT by b4its2late (Ignorance allows liberalism to prosper.)
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To: iThinkBig

ping


15 posted on 07/13/2009 9:35:33 AM PDT by mek1959
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To: Jeff Head

BUMP for a great article!


16 posted on 07/13/2009 9:37:24 AM PDT by TSgt (Extreme vitriol and rancorous replies served daily. - Mike W USAF)
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To: Paleo Conservative

I have it in my stack to read...is it worth bumping up?


17 posted on 07/13/2009 9:37:35 AM PDT by ladyvet (WOLVERINES!!!!!)
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To: ladyvet

bttt


18 posted on 07/13/2009 9:39:39 AM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: ladyvet

Yes, it’s worth bumping. I’m about to read it for the second time. Time for a refresher.


19 posted on 07/13/2009 9:41:24 AM PDT by Marie (Alan Keyes for President!)
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To: ConservativeMan55

Chilling but on target in some ways..not sure that Peak Oil is as bad as claimed (remember, according to some, we were supposed to be out of oil by NOW). In short, to me, the main crisis is political. It’s a bunch of grasshoppers who are trying to tax the ants out of house and home. There’s a ton of anger out there. And right now, the people in charge are in payback mode for perceived wrongs. They really do believe Bush=Hitler...no matter how much the facts don’t measure up. And now? Now they want their Nuremberg..and that will being the beginning.

I do believe 2010 might be the last election we have got to stave some of the crazier stuff off...and maybe have a shot to undo some of the other stuff. In any event, I am praying Obama is one term and done as a president...His health care proposals alone scare the HELL out of me.


20 posted on 07/13/2009 9:45:02 AM PDT by Braak (The US Military, the real arms inspectors!)
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To: ladyvet
I have it in my stack to read...is it worth bumping up?

It's worth reading. You might take it with a grain of salt. It wouldn't hurt if the grain of salt were on the rim of a margarita glass.

21 posted on 07/13/2009 9:45:21 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: iThinkBig

ping


22 posted on 07/13/2009 9:50:33 AM PDT by Obadiah (Obama: Chains you can believe in!)
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To: iThinkBig
The first George Bush administration was marked by the Gulf War, which planted the poisonous seeds for our future War on Terror,

This is debatable. I think the seeds for that war were well before that, a la Jimmah Carta.

23 posted on 07/13/2009 9:53:04 AM PDT by b4its2late (Ignorance allows liberalism to prosper.)
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To: Wolfie
We’re going to go the way of the British Empire. We won’t rule the world anymore. So it goes.

Have you seen what Britain is like lately? It's a heck of lot worse than simply not ruling the world the way they used to.

24 posted on 07/13/2009 9:55:24 AM PDT by jpl (Help us Obambi Wan Kenobi, you're our only dope.)
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To: Braak

I agree with ya. And the peak oil thing is that we haven’t been allowed to drill for oil in the US for years and in certain places thanks to the enviros. Their Nuremberg though is going to be a distraction that will probably derail allot of what the WH wants to do, even though they are all for it, even if they say they aren’t.


25 posted on 07/13/2009 9:56:54 AM PDT by b4its2late (Ignorance allows liberalism to prosper.)
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To: HIDEK6
What a thought! Are you a founding father?

How ironic that George Washington warned about allowing political parties becoming our representatives and we failed to take heed. We (inclusive) are enjoying the fruits of our follies.

26 posted on 07/13/2009 10:01:07 AM PDT by ImpBill ("America ... where are you now?" signed, a little "r" republican!)
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To: MikeWUSAF
There have been a number of threads over the last few months about the 4th turning and the US entering this cycle.

While I agree that we are entering the 4th Turning the idea that peak oil is the cause is not addressing the core issue. We have plenty of energy, there is an abundance of energy in the word, far more than we can use. This energy takes many forms, oil being one of them.

The core issues are personal responsibility and moral relativism. These basic issues are at the heart of most of our problems and until we come to grips with these ideas, attempts to solve our problems will be futile. The author makes the same mistake, blaming our problems on external events that we have limited control over.

The disintegration of the family has so many negative manifestations – crime, abuse, welfare, urban sprawl, unemployment, out of control government, etc (read Jack Cashill's What is Wrong with California). And the reason many families split is due to not taking responsibility for personal actions and the idea that what is right/wrong does not apply to me (made the baby, care for the baby).

Social conservatives have it right, the family must be strengthened, but this is not a popular idea nor is it a politically winning strategy. We need more producers and fewer consumers.

We are entering the 4th Turning. The last three 4th Turnings have been progressively more destructive and disruptive. This one is shaping up to be very nasty.

schu

27 posted on 07/13/2009 10:02:11 AM PDT by schu
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To: Lazamataz

Agreed.

Things to come:

1) Race wars- black vs white with brown
2) Sporadic martial law
3) Severe Urban rioting over food
4) Federal government collapse;US tears itself appart
5) Open warfare in the Southwest
6) Several states pondering succession
7) Foreign Nations attempting to grab US territory
8) repeated Islamic attacks on US
9) LIBERAL baby boomers fading into oblivion
10) Shale oil being cheaply converted into a fuel source
11) US states taking charge of rebuilding of government and economy
12) Eruabia is born
13) Mass immigration from Europe
14) China implodes
15) India asserts itself as a world leader
16) Christianity returns to the US with a vengeance
17) Hollywood marginalized
18) Conservative baby boomers become mentors to Gen y
19) Gen X leads rebuilding efforts and then steps aside
20) We will not recognize the US in 20 years: the good and the bad


28 posted on 07/13/2009 10:06:43 AM PDT by Le Chien Rouge
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To: Le Chien Rouge

I kinda dig what you’ve written.


29 posted on 07/13/2009 10:07:47 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Too sick for words!)
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To: ansel12
Barack Obama became the 1st Generation Xer to be elected President of the United States.

Barack Obama and Governor Palin are Boomers. 1946-1964.

But then he doesn't conveniently fit into the Nomad category.
;^)

30 posted on 07/13/2009 10:09:25 AM PDT by Cooter
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To: iThinkBig

Good article.
What people learn from history is that people don’t learn from history. That’s why we’re doomed to repeat it. Always starts with a minor incident as the elimination of natural law from society and society snowballs from there.
My global graph says we won’t hit bottom for ten years and won’t see a recovery for twenty. (That’s globally, though. What happens to the USA is anyone’s guess.)


31 posted on 07/13/2009 10:10:57 AM PDT by griswold3
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To: jpl
It'll be awhile before we get there. I'll be gone by then. Look, we pissed it away. Everybody's convinced their guy in D.C. is doing the right thing. Everybody's wrong.
32 posted on 07/13/2009 10:11:41 AM PDT by Wolfie
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To: iThinkBig
Hm. I'm OK with the idea of these cylclic "turnings" in a general sense. OTOH, I think it's a mistake to try to paint the transitions as starkly as Mr. Quinn tries to do.

I think Mr. Quinn also makes a mistake by trying to apply the ideas to current events. He appears to rely very strongly on his own peeves (for lack of a better word) to describe the current cycle; and of course in so doing it makes his own outlook seem "prophetic."

There's just enough reality there to make his assessment superficially plausible; however, he also clearly has to fudge some of the conditions (e.g., was there really weaker government during the '70s? Did the "culture wars" really begin in 1984, or did they actually start much earlier?).

Also, he selects WWII as the "crisis" when in fact the Depression and its resultant change in governmental systems would probably be a more accurate choice .... but of course, then he couldn't invoke (and blame) the Boomers with the same authority.

Most importantly, Quinn seems to ignore the effects of the outside world on what he seems to treat as a purely American phenomenon. That's flat-out incorrect: it's impossible to assess "Turnings" in America without reference to those in China and elsewhere.

To be useful, the theory has to be assessed in a global context, and must account for the possibility that "Turnings" in different parts of the world may be at different stages. For example, is China at the same place we are? I tend to think not; and yet China's turnings interact with ours.

Bottom line, I guess, is this: the theory of "Turnings" is a useful way to look at history, and to spot very broad trends in current events; but it's next to useless as a predictive measure, because it requires the "prophet" to know more about how the future actually will occur, than he can possibly do.

33 posted on 07/13/2009 10:12:39 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: Paleo Conservative

Thanks, I’ll take your advice!


34 posted on 07/13/2009 10:14:46 AM PDT by ladyvet (WOLVERINES!!!!!)
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To: massgopguy
Hey Flower Children, remember how you used to say “don’t trust anyone over 30”? Remember “Wild in the Streets”? You were going to thin the heard of old people. Well, it’s kind like Pharoah’s Tenth Plague.

Good observation.

By the time the dreamers, dopers, cowards and flakes came into power they had become the old ones they warned about; now they are the old herd to be thinned.

Once Obama gets control of the health industry, he will be culling them like they wanted to cull their own parents.

35 posted on 07/13/2009 10:16:34 AM PDT by Iron Munro (If you cannot be a good example you can serve as horrible warning - like Obama.)
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To: Iron Munro
Good observation. By the time the dreamers, dopers, cowards and flakes came into power they had become the old ones they warned about; now they are the old herd to be thinned.

You must not be aware that the fatal attack on America by the left that doomed it's future peaked from 1935 to 1975, the years since have not been as productive for the left, boomers actually moved the country right as they came of age in the 1980s and started winning wars again and brought back gun rights, the 1965 immigration act will still swallow the nation but no one can erase that.

36 posted on 07/13/2009 10:26:08 AM PDT by ansel12 (Romney (guns)"instruments of destruction with the sole purpose of hunting down and killing people")
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To: iThinkBig
According to the author, Obama is the poster boy for Gen-X.

okay.

37 posted on 07/13/2009 10:29:39 AM PDT by wtc911 ("How you gonna get back down that hill?")
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To: iThinkBig
James Quinn a senior director of strategic planning for Harvard University. The Harvard Endowment took a 22% dive in 2008, the largest in their history. They are expecting another 30% by the end of this fiscal year.

Why should I listen to anything he says? He clearly did not see the financial collapse coming, but he has plenty to say now.

38 posted on 07/13/2009 10:36:19 AM PDT by Dr. Thorne (Buy Gold and Guns Now!)
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To: Dr. Thorne

Actually, he is the one of the Dir. of the Wharten School of Business in PA. I believe you are thinking of another Jim Quinn whom also resides in PA and has a radio program. I know Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform.com. I don’t disagree with what you are saying about Harvard grads and economics. The FIRE economy is dead, long live the FIRE economy!


39 posted on 07/13/2009 10:41:29 AM PDT by iThinkBig
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To: iThinkBig
The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition.

I think it will be the first one: nation ruined, democracy destroyed, millions of people scattered and killed.

40 posted on 07/13/2009 10:44:03 AM PDT by Red Boots
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To: iThinkBig

Read the article - that was depressing. But it confirms what I feel in my gut. My intuition has been in overdrive for the past few years concerning social collapse, war, and mayhem - and the election of our first socialist president hasn’t quelled those feelings. What the author doesn’t say in his glowing appraisal of Obama, but hints at broadly, is that Obama is the Lenin of the changes coming up - but the Stalin has yet to emerge.

The other voice comes from my interactions with the Baha’i community, who fearlessly tell me that the era of large wars has ended and that we are entering a period they call “the Lesser Peace.” I can’t see that happening without the values and strength of American civil tradition intact. Perhaps we’ll get to the precipice and looking into it will be enough. On the other hand, the Lesser Peace still means turmoil, the occasional EMP blast over the Midwest, riots, and individual acts of jihad.

As always, I fear for my son, who is blissfully sitting upstairs watching cartoons.


41 posted on 07/13/2009 10:54:34 AM PDT by redpoll
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To: redpoll
Read the article - that was depressing. But it confirms what I feel in my gut. My intuition has been in overdrive for the past few years concerning social collapse, war, and mayhem - and the election of our first socialist president hasn’t quelled those feelings. What the author doesn’t say in his glowing appraisal of Obama, but hints at broadly, is that Obama is the Lenin of the changes coming up - but the Stalin has yet to emerge.

My gut as well.

You know, a few months ago a friend was describing to me a book she was reading-its currently a bestseller on Mao. It paints the worst abuses and killings as being the brainchild of Mrs Mao.

As she described her to me, a chilling picture of our current first lady came into my mind, with the classic stomach dropping feeling of inevitability. For whatever it's worth.

42 posted on 07/13/2009 11:03:10 AM PDT by Red Boots
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To: Le Chien Rouge
The Cap & Trade Energy bill will eventually be rammed through by the Democratic controlled Congress. It is being spun as a bill that will reduce greenhouse gases and create thousands of green jobs. What is a green job? Will we turn unemployed investment bankers and auto salesmen into solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers? The green agenda bill will penalize manufacturers, refineries, natural gas producers and electric utilities with increased taxes. Sounds great. Let’s penalize the polluters. Every company that produces something will pass their costs along to their customers. This bill will increase the average family’s energy costs by $1,500 per year. It will convince many companies to move operations and jobs to China and India where these regulations don’t apply. Our agriculture industry will bear the brunt of this burden as they use tremendous amounts of energy in farming. Expect food costs to go up a lot. Since low income families spend a greater percentage of their income on energy, this bill will damage their finances the most. It will also trigger the coming Crisis.
43 posted on 07/13/2009 11:07:07 AM PDT by Obadiah (Obama: Chains you can believe in!)
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To: iThinkBig
From the article:Barack Obama became the 1st Generation Xer to be elected President of the United States.

Huh? Obama is a Boomer, not a Generation Xer.

44 posted on 07/13/2009 11:08:26 AM PDT by inflorida
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To: Le Chien Rouge

succession=secession (secede)?????

I’ve noticed more people using succession. Can someone explain why that term is used in the context of seceding?

TIA


45 posted on 07/13/2009 11:26:25 AM PDT by pilipo (GOP=Gutless Old Party)
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To: iThinkBig

“It is very likely that Barack Obama will lead the country into the next Crisis. He will not lead us out of the Crisis, as it is unlikely to subside until 2025. “

How’s that “hope and change” working for you nitwits that voted for Obama?


46 posted on 07/13/2009 11:27:02 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Socialism is the belief that most people are better off if everyone was equally poor and miserable.)
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To: Jeff Head

Excellent article and this paragraph could not be more true.

We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment. Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons don’t add up to an actualized society.


47 posted on 07/13/2009 11:39:45 AM PDT by mojitojoe (All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.)
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To: ansel12
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Germans?

Forget it. He's rolling.

48 posted on 07/13/2009 11:58:27 AM PDT by Richard Kimball (We're all criminals. They just haven't figured out what some of us have done yet.)
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To: Paleo Conservative

what did you think of it?


49 posted on 07/13/2009 12:04:37 PM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion....the Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: pilipo
succession=secession (secede)?????

I’ve noticed more people using succession. Can someone explain why that term is used in the context of seceding?

Spell checking doesn't mean a word is used correctly. Succession means that which follows. Secession means to withdraw from a group.

Probably half the people on the internet use the term loose when they mean lose. It's just an improper word use, but like loose for lose, it's so common now that many don't notice it.

Please note that I screw up sometimes, also. In recent posts I've been called out for using sew instead of sow and I said tow the line instead of toe the line.

50 posted on 07/13/2009 12:06:03 PM PDT by Richard Kimball (We're all criminals. They just haven't figured out what some of us have done yet.)
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