Skip to comments.Boomers - Winter is Coming
Posted on 07/13/2009 9:03:28 AM PDT by iThinkBig
Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.
Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning
(Excerpt) Read more at ragingdebate.com ...
Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social (and sometimes nostalgic) aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.
Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.
Let's hope so.
Maybe next time we could try a representative republic.
Barack Obama and Governor Palin are Boomers. 1946-1964.
To be honest, I think that we do go through generational cycles of privilege and hardship. But there are too many details in this analysis that I disagree with for me to put much credence in it.
Yes, there are such cycles. And, yes, we are entering a period of crisis. But I don’t find this particular analysis especially helpful.
Hey Flower Children, remember how you used to say “don’t trust anyone over 30”? Remember “Wild in the Streets”? You were going to thin the heard of old people. Well, it’s kind like Pharoah’s Tenth Plague.
If the U.S. goes down the World will be entering into the 2nd Dark Ages. Not a pretty prospect.
This “little baby” is ours to deal with.
There CAN be NO Recovery until Obozo is out of office.
Sooner the better.
A bit overwrought. We’re going to go the way of the British Empire. We won’t rule the world anymore. So it goes.
I read Strauss and Howe’s book when it first came out.
The 9.4 million veterans of our last great warrior generation (the boomers), outnumbered the "Flower Children" who weren't that numerous, you need to look at who the media was that shaped your perceptions of the time.
And we got one huge mistake in office to kick off The Fourth Turning......
BUMP for a great article!
I have it in my stack to read...is it worth bumping up?
Yes, it’s worth bumping. I’m about to read it for the second time. Time for a refresher.
Chilling but on target in some ways..not sure that Peak Oil is as bad as claimed (remember, according to some, we were supposed to be out of oil by NOW). In short, to me, the main crisis is political. It’s a bunch of grasshoppers who are trying to tax the ants out of house and home. There’s a ton of anger out there. And right now, the people in charge are in payback mode for perceived wrongs. They really do believe Bush=Hitler...no matter how much the facts don’t measure up. And now? Now they want their Nuremberg..and that will being the beginning.
I do believe 2010 might be the last election we have got to stave some of the crazier stuff off...and maybe have a shot to undo some of the other stuff. In any event, I am praying Obama is one term and done as a president...His health care proposals alone scare the HELL out of me.
It's worth reading. You might take it with a grain of salt. It wouldn't hurt if the grain of salt were on the rim of a margarita glass.
This is debatable. I think the seeds for that war were well before that, a la Jimmah Carta.
Have you seen what Britain is like lately? It's a heck of lot worse than simply not ruling the world the way they used to.
I agree with ya. And the peak oil thing is that we haven’t been allowed to drill for oil in the US for years and in certain places thanks to the enviros. Their Nuremberg though is going to be a distraction that will probably derail allot of what the WH wants to do, even though they are all for it, even if they say they aren’t.
How ironic that George Washington warned about allowing political parties becoming our representatives and we failed to take heed. We (inclusive) are enjoying the fruits of our follies.
While I agree that we are entering the 4th Turning the idea that peak oil is the cause is not addressing the core issue. We have plenty of energy, there is an abundance of energy in the word, far more than we can use. This energy takes many forms, oil being one of them.
The core issues are personal responsibility and moral relativism. These basic issues are at the heart of most of our problems and until we come to grips with these ideas, attempts to solve our problems will be futile. The author makes the same mistake, blaming our problems on external events that we have limited control over.
The disintegration of the family has so many negative manifestations crime, abuse, welfare, urban sprawl, unemployment, out of control government, etc (read Jack Cashill's What is Wrong with California). And the reason many families split is due to not taking responsibility for personal actions and the idea that what is right/wrong does not apply to me (made the baby, care for the baby).
Social conservatives have it right, the family must be strengthened, but this is not a popular idea nor is it a politically winning strategy. We need more producers and fewer consumers.
We are entering the 4th Turning. The last three 4th Turnings have been progressively more destructive and disruptive. This one is shaping up to be very nasty.
Things to come:
1) Race wars- black vs white with brown
2) Sporadic martial law
3) Severe Urban rioting over food
4) Federal government collapse;US tears itself appart
5) Open warfare in the Southwest
6) Several states pondering succession
7) Foreign Nations attempting to grab US territory
8) repeated Islamic attacks on US
9) LIBERAL baby boomers fading into oblivion
10) Shale oil being cheaply converted into a fuel source
11) US states taking charge of rebuilding of government and economy
12) Eruabia is born
13) Mass immigration from Europe
14) China implodes
15) India asserts itself as a world leader
16) Christianity returns to the US with a vengeance
17) Hollywood marginalized
18) Conservative baby boomers become mentors to Gen y
19) Gen X leads rebuilding efforts and then steps aside
20) We will not recognize the US in 20 years: the good and the bad
I kinda dig what you’ve written.
Barack Obama and Governor Palin are Boomers. 1946-1964.
But then he doesn't conveniently fit into the Nomad category.
What people learn from history is that people don’t learn from history. That’s why we’re doomed to repeat it. Always starts with a minor incident as the elimination of natural law from society and society snowballs from there.
My global graph says we won’t hit bottom for ten years and won’t see a recovery for twenty. (That’s globally, though. What happens to the USA is anyone’s guess.)
I think Mr. Quinn also makes a mistake by trying to apply the ideas to current events. He appears to rely very strongly on his own peeves (for lack of a better word) to describe the current cycle; and of course in so doing it makes his own outlook seem "prophetic."
There's just enough reality there to make his assessment superficially plausible; however, he also clearly has to fudge some of the conditions (e.g., was there really weaker government during the '70s? Did the "culture wars" really begin in 1984, or did they actually start much earlier?).
Also, he selects WWII as the "crisis" when in fact the Depression and its resultant change in governmental systems would probably be a more accurate choice .... but of course, then he couldn't invoke (and blame) the Boomers with the same authority.
Most importantly, Quinn seems to ignore the effects of the outside world on what he seems to treat as a purely American phenomenon. That's flat-out incorrect: it's impossible to assess "Turnings" in America without reference to those in China and elsewhere.
To be useful, the theory has to be assessed in a global context, and must account for the possibility that "Turnings" in different parts of the world may be at different stages. For example, is China at the same place we are? I tend to think not; and yet China's turnings interact with ours.
Bottom line, I guess, is this: the theory of "Turnings" is a useful way to look at history, and to spot very broad trends in current events; but it's next to useless as a predictive measure, because it requires the "prophet" to know more about how the future actually will occur, than he can possibly do.
Thanks, I’ll take your advice!
By the time the dreamers, dopers, cowards and flakes came into power they had become the old ones they warned about; now they are the old herd to be thinned.
Once Obama gets control of the health industry, he will be culling them like they wanted to cull their own parents.
You must not be aware that the fatal attack on America by the left that doomed it's future peaked from 1935 to 1975, the years since have not been as productive for the left, boomers actually moved the country right as they came of age in the 1980s and started winning wars again and brought back gun rights, the 1965 immigration act will still swallow the nation but no one can erase that.
Why should I listen to anything he says? He clearly did not see the financial collapse coming, but he has plenty to say now.
Actually, he is the one of the Dir. of the Wharten School of Business in PA. I believe you are thinking of another Jim Quinn whom also resides in PA and has a radio program. I know Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform.com. I don’t disagree with what you are saying about Harvard grads and economics. The FIRE economy is dead, long live the FIRE economy!
I think it will be the first one: nation ruined, democracy destroyed, millions of people scattered and killed.
Read the article - that was depressing. But it confirms what I feel in my gut. My intuition has been in overdrive for the past few years concerning social collapse, war, and mayhem - and the election of our first socialist president hasn’t quelled those feelings. What the author doesn’t say in his glowing appraisal of Obama, but hints at broadly, is that Obama is the Lenin of the changes coming up - but the Stalin has yet to emerge.
The other voice comes from my interactions with the Baha’i community, who fearlessly tell me that the era of large wars has ended and that we are entering a period they call “the Lesser Peace.” I can’t see that happening without the values and strength of American civil tradition intact. Perhaps we’ll get to the precipice and looking into it will be enough. On the other hand, the Lesser Peace still means turmoil, the occasional EMP blast over the Midwest, riots, and individual acts of jihad.
As always, I fear for my son, who is blissfully sitting upstairs watching cartoons.
My gut as well.
You know, a few months ago a friend was describing to me a book she was reading-its currently a bestseller on Mao. It paints the worst abuses and killings as being the brainchild of Mrs Mao.
As she described her to me, a chilling picture of our current first lady came into my mind, with the classic stomach dropping feeling of inevitability. For whatever it's worth.
Huh? Obama is a Boomer, not a Generation Xer.
I’ve noticed more people using succession. Can someone explain why that term is used in the context of seceding?
“It is very likely that Barack Obama will lead the country into the next Crisis. He will not lead us out of the Crisis, as it is unlikely to subside until 2025. “
How’s that “hope and change” working for you nitwits that voted for Obama?
Excellent article and this paragraph could not be more true.
We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment. Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons dont add up to an actualized society.
Forget it. He's rolling.
what did you think of it?
Ive noticed more people using succession. Can someone explain why that term is used in the context of seceding?
Spell checking doesn't mean a word is used correctly. Succession means that which follows. Secession means to withdraw from a group.
Probably half the people on the internet use the term loose when they mean lose. It's just an improper word use, but like loose for lose, it's so common now that many don't notice it.
Please note that I screw up sometimes, also. In recent posts I've been called out for using sew instead of sow and I said tow the line instead of toe the line.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.