Posted on 07/25/2010 6:38:48 PM PDT by PugetSoundSoldier
“That’s all there was then, and this is what it would take to pack the trains - the elimination of all other forms of transportation. “
That may be the key, if BO gets his wish and jacks oil up to $8 a gallon.
Eminent domain. Problem solved.
You missed the point entirely.
We have nearly 3 CENTURIES of 100% of our petroleum needs (including fuel) right within the Continental US.
Shale Oil and Tar Sands are very low quality petroleum deposits that require much more difficult and expensive methods of extraction than traditional oil. The simple fact that you have to hype them as some bogus indicator of bountiful petroleum based energy is evidence that depletion of traditional oil resources and Peak Oil theory is real.
Please read my post, follow the references. You’ll see it’s documented to be economical at $20-$25 per barrel. Exxon, RAND, and others make the case with actual science and facts.
But you’re the master of lack-of-facts, just stating something and leaving it at that. Peak oil is a myth, high speed rail is WAY too expensive for the US to consider.
Go ahead, Willie - how about justifying a $376 per TRIP subsidy. Or show me where my numbers are wrong. Put some facts down on paper, prove your case. Or simply be shown - once again - to be an empty-headed shill for trains.
Dipstick.
Virtually everyone on FR can add except you. Any plans for acquiring that skill?
Well, we'll see. Meantime, due at minimum to your economic incompetence, why not apply for a job with your HE-E-E-RO, Zerobama?
As a long-term conservative investor, I don't take investment advice from some day-trading conartist who practices "market timing". It is foolish to assume that past market performance is a predictor of future market trends. Unfortunately, there are many gullible people who are suckers for that "easy money" crap, just like they think they can anaylze the statistics to "beat the odds" in Vegas.
Wise investors would be much better off adhering to the fundamental principles of value investing than falling for that "market timing" crap.
Everything ‘works’, but at what cost/price?
Willie Green and other leftists, union and contractor hack greedheads want trains, as the road builders are pretty competitive, so there is not much industry growth.
Heck, I next suppose Willie, the unions, contractors and hack politicians will be wanting barge canal nationwide.
Imagine the profits fro shearing the sheeple!
Will confronted with facts deeper than the first page of a lefty ‘intermodal’ site, Willie just does a Judy Garland, clinks his heels and moves on with his little train, Toto.
This is for a family of 4 right?
And it is a good thing that the train picks you up at your front door so you don't have to drive downtown to the station and park your car.
And if the whole family has a SunPass tattooed on their foreheads then the trip goes much quicker and you never see the money fly out of your hands.
Please read my post, follow the references. You’ll see it’s documented to be economical at $20-$25 per barrel. Exxon, RAND, and others make the case with actual science and facts.
The RAND study you cite actually says "US$70–95 adjusted to 2005 values", but serves as an illustration to others as how you cherry-pick information and then play a mix & match shell game with the data to misrepresent the facts.
Talk about cherry picking! You pick on the first 0.025% of all the oil pumped and claim that is the fixed price. You're a piece of work, Willie - about as brazen a shyster and liar as I've seen! And one who never even posts a fact - ever. Just slams others and ignores the truth staring him in the face.
So how about the $376 PER TRIP subsidy, Willie? Gonna claim that's a lie, too? I did the math, the references are there. You lie about oil because you have some twisted vendetta created by some supposed "wrong" that "Big Oil" committed against you in the past. So you've become completely obsessed and irrational.
Go ahead, Willie. Justify the subsidy. Lay it out there. Or do your usual "it's a lie" and leave without any backing. Showing you for the empty headed drivel writer you are...
Way to lie about me, Willie... It STARTS at $70 per barrel but quickly falls down to $30 per RAND. And there are other methods that drop below $20 per barrel.
Those are marginal operating costs and do not include the massive investment required to develop the shale oil / tar sand infrastructure.
Nevertheless, it really doesn't matter.
I never said that Peak Oil would make shale oil and tar sands unprofitable.
Quite the opposite.
I expect that the market price of oil (as determined by supply and demand) will greatly exceed the costs of production. But the problem remains... we simply won't be capable of processing it fast enough to satisfy demand. Shortages will occur and prices will skyrocket.
And so will ridership on passenger rail systems.
Doubtless I shall now get a lecture from you on why arbing vols is an unsatisfactory investment technique, notwithstanding of course that you haven't the first clue as to what is involved in such arbitrage.
“just not gub’mint run boondoggle passenger trains.”
Guess I’d have to agree with ya
With over 400 years of US supply in California reserves there isn’t any such thing as Peak Oil!
Peak Oil only exists in the minds of socialists and choo-choo Willie!
Yes that would be for a family of four. 4 x $30 to get to Disney plus 4 x $30 to get home. Plus parking in Tampa.
And it only makes sense for those people in downtown Tampa or West since the folks on the east side of Tampa can hit Disney in about 45 minutes anyway.
Doesn’t make any sense.
You display your ignorance yet once more. I am almost exclusively a volatility arbitrageur, not a "market timer"."
Volatility arbitrage = Day trader
I was right.
"Volatility arbitrage" is an ultra-myopic investment gambling technique that is void of any long term fundamental market analysis.
IOW, your opinion on Peak Oil ain't worth poop.
Willie, the train from Tampa to Orlando has an initial investment of $1.5 Billion and most people think it will take at least $3 Billion to get it built.
At a $30 ticket per person it will take 100 million tickets to pay off the cost not including the operating expenses. At $30 a ticket its cheaper to drive or rent a car.
Even assuming they can build it for the $1.5 it would still require 50 million tickets to be sold. Lets give them a generous 500 passengers per trip, it will take 100,000 trips to pay off the cost. At 8 trips per day it will take them 34 years to recoup that investment.
But we know nobody will pay $30 a ticket so it will never get paid off. Passenger rail does not make sense in low population density areas.
Arbing vol in options is: 1) very distinctly NOT a daytrading strategy; the typical trade has a duration of 5-6 weeks, 2) there is very little or (ideally) no "gambling" involved; the strategy is pendent on locating options that are demonstrably mispriced and whose price(s) will revert to close to fair value as expiration nears, and 3) if done carefully, a vol-arb portfolio will actually have a lower beta than the broad market.
I "gamble" a WHOLE lot less than almost anyone who simply owns shares.
Volatility, dear boy, in the investment sense of the word, is a statistical measure, no more, no less. It has effectively nothing to do with how 'wild' a market or markets are, or with daytrading or "market timing".
And it most certainly has nothing to do with "peak oil"; I'll let you economic and energy-business illiterate types deal with that non-concept. Just in passing, there is more crude-equivalent kerogen in the Green River shales (and that's just one area) than in the entirety of Saudi Arabia and Iran combined. And we know how to extract it for roughly $42-46/bbl-equivalent.
Peak oil, is it? A myth, just like the notion of light-rail passenger trains being anything but a gigantic long-term money pit for taxpayers.
Don't start with me on economic issues, Willie. I deal with them in the real world all day, every day, and have for decades. Which, of course, it is so easy to identify an economic illiterate when one such as you turns up. All you know how to do is call names...all of which, in this particular correspondence, have been grossly inaccurate in fact.
Do have a nice day. I'm off to make some more profit.
But we know nobody will pay $30 a ticket so it will never get paid off.
Your faulty analysis falsely assumes that the long term value of infrastructure assets depreciate to zero, when in reality, they will appreciate in value if properly maintained.
Furthermore, the regional economic benefits transcend what is collected as train fare. Communities serviced by Amtrak also enjoy increased economic growth that the service provides.
Passenger rail does not make sense in low population density areas.
The Tampa Bay Area is the 19th most populous region in the United States with 2,747,272 people.
The Orlando area is 27th with 2,082,421 people.
Those are NOT "low population density areas."
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