The CW2 Cube: Mapping the Meta-terrain of Civil War Two

Western Rifle Shooters Association Blog ^ | July 30, 2010 | Matthew Bracken

[Jack Black]

A second civil war in the United States would be an unparalleled disaster. Nobody who is sane and who has studied modern civil wars from Spain to Lebanon to the Balkans and beyond would ever wish to see one occur. But if political, cultural and demographic trends are sweeping us toward that unhappy destiny, it would be wise to at least cast a weather eye over the possible terrain.

First, a caveat. I am not going to waste our time making politically-correct genuflections after every controversial sentence, because this essay is intended to be read by mature and rational adults.

Before we move on to the cube, let’s begin with the CW2 Square. The cube is best tackled in another step. Draw the square and label one axis Poorer to Richer. Label the other axis Darker to Lighter. Darker, for brevity, includes African-Americans, Hispanics and so on. Lighter refers to those of European ancestry. The two opposed meta-groups are the poorer and darker versus the richer and lighter, or whiter if you wish to be blunt. The richer/whiter have the power of their wealth, but counterbalancing that advantage is the fact that the poorer/darker have succeeded in wresting control of much of government power. This is so, even if most of their elected leaders are anything but poor or dark.

Now, before you scream out your exceptions, yes, there are rich black cattle ranchers and poor whites living in blighted urban areas and so on. However, to focus on them is to miss the critical centers of gravity of Civil War Two for the over-study of interesting but insignificant outliers. Filling one corner of the CW2 Square will be the poorer and darker, who primarily are liberal and progressive Democrats who believe in a malleable “living Constitution.” And in the other corner will be the richer and whiter, who mainly are conservative or libertarian Republicans who believe in the original intent of the written Constitution. Again, keep your eyes on the two meta-cores, not the exceptions.

Now, let’s add the third dimension and shoot another axis out from the square to form the CW2 Cube. Label the third axis Urban versus Rural, or City versus Country if you prefer. This axis gives a geographical dimension to the meta-terrain, but there will be no convenient dividing line between the opposed sides as there was during the first civil war. It has frequently been observed that today’s red-blue political map is better understood at the county than at the state level. Even blue states like Illinois, California and New York are rural-red outside of their blue urban cores. Obviously, these urban cores are heavily populated but geographically small, with all that means to the electoral process today and to a possible civil war later.

So the opposing corners of the CW2 Cube can be seen as the poorer, darker cities versus the richer, whiter rural areas. Again, don’t quibble about outliers. Yes, there are a few rich, conservative African-Americans living in Wyoming, many poor white liberal Democrats in rural West Virginia, some rich conservatives in San Francisco and every other exceptional case imaginable.

Most of us live in the mushy, mongrel middle, far from the tips of the two opposite corners. But the centers of gravity of Civil War Two shall be as I have described: the relatively richer, whiter and more rural against the poorer, darker and urban. One can also propose many more axes of conflict than can fit on a cube, such as the religious versus the non-believers, socialists versus capitalists, statists versus individualists and so on. However, after you reflect upon the CW2 Cube, I think you will find that most of these extra axes can be overlaid parallel to one of the three already posited.

*******

So, of what use is the CW2 Cube, other than in providing a conceptual map for Civil War Two? In my research as a novelist who attempts to write realistic fiction about the coming years, I have long been a student of modern civil wars. One repeated lesson of modern civil war is that there is inherently dangerous, even fatal terrain. Some of this predictably-dangerous terrain is often highly desirable and even advantageous before the outbreak of civil war.

To begin: you do not want to live as a trapped and cut-off minority in what might become “enemy territory.” If you live amidst your civil war enemies, as defined and located within the CW2 Cube, you will be in mortal danger even if your immediate neighbors know, love and respect you. Those persons who have a stake in fanning the flames of CW2 (and their number shall be legion), will intentionally target those remaining “holdouts” who may be respected minority neighbors. (In this essay, minority means “the minority within a given group or area.” Blacks are the majority in some areas, and whites are the minorities in others, and so on.)

Frequently in modern civil wars, roaming armed groups (in or out of uniform) will even force people to kill their own beloved and respected minority neighbors as an ultimate loyalty test. If they refuse, they may themselves be killed as “traitors.” Besides pre-conflict racists and radicals, there will be an ever-increasing pool of persons attempting to expel minorities from their homes. Those embittered unfortunates who have already been ethnically cleansed will be seeking new living quarters, and the homes and property of “enemy” minorities still living in majority territory will be the first on the chopping block. (Not the auction block, because payment of any kind is rarely offered.) This process of minority eviction becomes self-perpetuating.

Often, those members of minorities who escape as refugees are the lucky ones who do not lose their lives during the back-and-forth of escalating violence. The fact that they may have been loved, admired and respected for many years by their majority-population neighbors will not protect them. This is a clear lesson of modern civil war. Another is that while the rich or the well-to-do can sometimes hide their wealth and pass as proles, the same cannot be said about concealing one’s racial or ethnic identity. Religious affiliation and political leanings can also be hidden, but outward appearance cannot. Civil War Two may begin on purely political grounds, but it will devolve into something worse.

Does this mean that all white city-dwellers should head for the hinterland, or that dark-skinned folks living in the country should move to the city? It’s not for me to say. We all hope and pray that there will never be a second “hot civil war” in America, instead of merely the “cold civil war” we are engaged in today. But the lessons of modern civil wars should not be ignored. Another lesson is that it will take tremendous moral courage to defy the hot-heads and radicals, and shield your minority neighbors from harm. Think of Anne Frank. Think of those indescribably brave inhabitants of the former Yugoslavia who hid their minority neighbors, when the discovery of that fact could and often did lead to their own deaths.

*******

While Civil War Two is on the table for discussion, allow me to introduce two aggravating factors that don’t fit neatly on the cube. The first is the concept of multiple embedded minorities. Picture the old cartoon mainstay showing a line of fish getting ready to gobble another fish, from the leviathan down to the small fry. You might live in a neighborhood where you are in the majority, but the neighborhood is in a town where you are in the minority. And the town is surrounded by a larger area where your own kind once again predominates.

Or you might fit into the picture as the smallest of all fish, living in the only minority household within a majority neighborhood. From street to neighborhood to city to state to region can easily place you in the middle of several levels of embedded minorities-within-majorities. This formulation might work for many decades during times of relative prosperity and well-being, but during a civil war it is a recipe for disaster, as unstable as nitroglycerin-filled bowling pins. It’s all cool just as long as the pins are standing still and calmly hanging out together, but look out when the Black Swan bowling ball comes rolling in! An unstoppable chain reaction ensues, as each new act of violence is avenged up and down the line.

Remember that funny line-of-fish cartoon, and imagine it a few seconds later when the biting begins. It’s not so funny then -- especially for the smaller fish.

The second aggravating factor is the unstable triangle of the three-sided civil war. The Bosnian Serbs, Croats and Muslims provide a classic example. Each side of the unstable triangle will backstab yesterday’s ally at the moment they perceive themselves to be at a local disadvantage, or when they see an opportunity to wipe out an historic enemy with a new Final Solution. The unstable ethnic triangle in the United States will in many places be composed of black, white and Hispanic sides. By comparison, the old black and white social dichotomy was inherently stable, even when it might have been rife with injustice.

In some areas, Asians, Middle-easterners, Native Americans and other groups will contribute to the formation of regional social geometries that are even more unstable than the unstable triangle. Study modern civil wars and you will cringe at the implications. A steel roller-coaster overloaded with old dynamite and electric blasting caps during a lightning storm comes to my mind.

And finally, some urban settings are just disastrous during a modern civil war, even if they might offer a terrific quality of life during peacetime. Perhaps the top the list of danger areas are high-rise buildings located near potential civil war flashpoints or fault lines. Living in a cluster of high-rises divided by a “green line” during a guerrilla sniper war is a worst-case horror show. Not to mention the misery attendant to life in a tall building without running water, electricity, sewage service, working elevators, heating or air-conditioning. While under intermittent sniper fire. For months.

So should you stay or should you go? If you don’t believe that another civil war in America is possible, then simply disregard this column. But if you think that a second civil war could happen then picture the CW2 Cube and map your location within it. If you think that you live near a possible civil war fault line, especially as a local minority, consider relocating.

After the fact, a common sentiment heard from urbane, secular Bosnians living in the Olympic City of Sarajevo expressed complete disbelief that a brutal, bloody civil war could have come to their modern European city and tear their lives apart.

But it did.

A parting suggestion to students of modern civil war is to read “Seasons in Hell: Understanding Bosnia’s War” by the British journalist Ed Vulliamy. It’s currently collecting dust at your local public library, waiting only to be read.

Forewarned is forearmed.

Matthew Bracken is the author of the “Enemies” trilogy, beginning with 2003's “Enemies Foreign And Domestic”. For more information, go to http://www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com/

See also Misha Glenny's The Third Balkan War for his account of what happens when a society commits autogenocide.

[Senator_Blutarski]

It would be easy enough to starve out the cities.

Food is actually the biggest advantage of the rural community.

Actually, the rural areas would hold most of the cards. Oil pipelines, power lines and in some states aquaducts pass through rural areas and would be easy to cut off. The cities would be hellholes without food, water, power and sanitation.

Additionally, the rural population is much more self-sufficient and able to deal with adversity (witness Katrina).

[IronJack]

That is the reality of an armed revolution in this country. You must understand that the Left is not concerned with establishing communism as much as it is with simply destroying the existing order. If civil war breaks out in this country, the international communist community will step in on the side of the liberals. Every enemy we now know will align with the Left because their goals and the Left's are the same: destroy the United States as it exists. What they envision replacing it may vary, but the first step is to neutralize what already IS.

A rush to revolution would be suicide.

However, if the coming battle also includes the world's conservatives on OUR side, the outcome might not be so cut and dried. So our global goal at this point should be to make allies internationally, as well as solidifying the conservative cause domestically. And by "allies," I mean those defined by ideological, not geographical, borders.

[The Comedian]

Thanks for the ping, Quix!

My neighbors and I are a minority which has the majority hopelessly surrounded, no matter where we are.

I am a Texan.

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[Quix]

YEA FOR THAT!

PRAISE GOD.

[x]

This has got to be one of the kookiest and craziest, stupidest and vilest articles posted here, including all of the obvious tin-foil hat stuff.

Do you really think people have the energy and viciousness to go out hunting for their fellow citizens? Isn't there something shameful in the very idea?

The Balkan Wars of the 1990s were a continuation of conflicts that went back at three generations and sometimes much longer. They had their roots in long-term civilizational divisions.

If you think America has reached that point or will any time soon, there's something wrong with you.

[piroque]

Actually, the rural areas would hold most of the cards. Oil pipelines, power lines and in some states aqua-ducts pass through rural areas and would be easy to cut off. The cities would be hellholes without food, water, power and sanitation.

A lot of the country folks would starve as most only have a few days worth of groceries . They don't garden or raise their own food .

[piroque]

Do you really think people have the energy and viciousness to go out hunting for their fellow citizens?

Yea,,,Man is the ultimate big game animal ,for he hunts you.

[gundog]

Warning, though... if you start reading them you won’t be able to put them down!

Ain't that the truth. Bought the first two at a gun show. Didn't get squat done for three days, and they were the only sunny spring days in a month of rain.

[Lurker]

Nicely done, Matt.

[Lurker]

If you think America has reached that point or will any time soon, there's something wrong with you.

If you DON'T think America is careening madly towards that point you're blind or stupid.

[Centurion2000]

Oh yes, and the Federal forces will definitely try to seize the Hoover Dam.

They will seize anything where the density of wealth is high enough.

[Centurion2000]

is the roll of WMDs in a civil war

Better also consider this ... while the US is in the middle of a civil war the other world powers (Russia / China / EU) will definitely move to secure any long term strategi goals that they have been blocked from picking up. They may also include nuclear strikes against the US.

A hot civil war would be the perfect time to detonate terror nukes in DC, NYC, LA and other high value countervalue targets.

[Centurion2000]

is the roll of WMDs in a civil war

Better also consider this ... while the US is in the middle of a civil war the other world powers (Russia / China / EU) will definitely move to secure any long term strategic goals that they have been blocked from picking up. They may also include nuclear strikes against the US.

A hot civil war would be the perfect time to detonate terror nukes in DC, NYC, LA and other high value countervalue targets.

[oneolcop]

"detonate terror nukes in DC, NYC, LA and other high value countervalue targets."

I don't see much of a problem with those targets.

[Centurion2000]

The critical resource that you can't live without is water. I can see a govt. attempting to re-control seceded states in the independent minded west by controlling the water.

Good point which is why you want to ensure access to well water.

[GonzoGOP]

A hot civil war would be the perfect time to detonate terror nukes in DC, NYC, LA and other high value countervalue targets.

Especially when you consider that you can blame the attack on one of the other combatants in the civil war. So the set off a bio weapon in the middle of DC and plant enough evidence at the scene to make it look like a lab in Texas made the weapon. So Obama or whoever it is in charge after the attack sends the army into Texas. Something tells me the Texans are unlikely to greet Obama's legions with open arms. The entire Southwest goes up in flames in a cycle of massacre and revenge.

Meanwhile the Neo Soviet armies roll into Ukraine and Poland and nobody can do a thing about it.

[bill1952]

beat me to it.
Nukes or not, those are priority A targets in any act against the gangsters in government

[Professional Engineer]

When TSHTF it's gonna be the RealTree People versus the Mossy Oak Gang and you wouldn't want to be in the middle.

~snicker~

[Screaming_Gerbil]

Have you seen this post #87 here?

I think it is a worthy alert.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/religion/2509442/posts?page=87#87

Posting here for all to see if these things come to pass soon as described...

These are events that will soon come that will signal your departure from this earth, My Beloved:

* I am taking Billy Graham home.

* War will soon erupt upon and all around Israel. She will be wounded, but not destroyed. But, all around her, whoever has cursed her from the house of Esau will be destroyed. Lebanon, Syria, Iran and others nations that have poked Me in the eye will experience the wrath of nuclear fire and destruction.

* If the President your nation has elected does not repent and change, I will continue to judge the United States concerning the attempts he has made to give up and divide My land and force Israel to divide Jerusalem. If He continues, I will divide America right down the middle. If he continues to put economic pressure on Israel, I will further collapse the economy of America. If he keeps encouraging and allowing terrorism to flourish, I will allow terrorism to destroy and wreak havoc in America. It is one hundred to one: I will see to it that one hundred times more comes upon America for what Israel experiences in this realm. I will judge America a thousand to one concerning any land that is taken from Israel and Jerusalem, just as it happened when you forced My people from their homes in Gaza and I responded with Hurricane Katrina. For every settler that has been or will be forced from their homes in Judea and Samaria, I will require one thousand homes in America to lose their homes. Since you forced Israel to “freeze” construction of homes, you housing markets have been “frozen” to the same degree – only a thousand homes to one.

* Concerning Iran: If America does not join in Israel in a preemptive attack upon Iran and Israel has to go it alone, America will experience nuclear attack through terrorism. You must attack with Israel now, or you will be attacked.

* Concerning sexual sin, homosexuality, pornography, abortion , molestation of children, and witchcraft in America: I will tolerate it no longer. A new sexually transmitted and incurable disease will bring rapid and painful death to many. It is coming. There will be no cure.Those that promote and murder children, I will see to it that YOUR children are murdered. Those that abuse and molest My children, I will see to it that YOUR children suffer the same for all of eternity. They will be chained to you forever as you burn in the hottest fires of hell. You will burn together. Those that have performed the murder of My children through abortion and have supported these murders of innocent blood, you will experience the very same tortures that you inflicted upon them. It will never stop for all of eternity. Forever you will be tortured if you do not repent and turn to Me and cry out for mercy. It is only My blood that can cleanse and remove these horrible sins. Those that have enslaved the souls of children through witchcraft, sorcery, Satanic worship and sacrifice, and the occult: You will be tormented the worst of all. Forever you shall be chained to those you enslaved as you are tormented by Satan himself. I warn you: do NOT participate in these things for it will damn you souls!

* Concerning genetic manipulation and mind control though technology: This brings My wrath upon those that try to mix what I have not allowed. But, soon when the Tribulation begins, this will sweep through the earth and eternally enslave all who worship the Beast, as it is written in My Word. Those who develop and participate in this now will lose their minds in torment forever in hell. To the degree they participate in enslaving and creating mutations that I have forbidden, to that degree, they shall be mutated and tortured forever and ever.

[Screaming_Gerbil]

Thank you to Jack Black for posting this article The CW2 Cube: Mapping the Meta-terrain of Civil War Two.