Posted on 06/16/2011 6:56:51 PM PDT by libertarian neocon
In case you missed it, today was the release of the Philly Fed Survey, which was another disastrous economic datapoint. Expectations were for a reading of +7, indicating minor growth, instead it came in at -7.7, indicating contraction.
Looking at this chart, the thing that pops out at me is how fast both the current activity and the future activity indices (expectations for activity in the next 6 months, which as you can see people always think things will either be the same or better) have been collapsing over the last 3 months. So I decided to look at the historical data, that goes back to 1968, to see when were the other times the 3 month change was this bad. The problem is, it's actually never been this bad. Below is the chart for the 3 month change in the Current Activity Index:
The last time the 3 month change even came close to the level of deterioration we've seen (51.1 points) was the 4th quarter of 1974 (50.5 points). This was right after Nixon resigned in disgrace and was a period when we were dealing with the ramifications of our loss in Vietnam, a stock market crash and an oil embargo. Also, we are currently dwarfing the deterioration we saw in the 4th quarter of 2008 (remember how we all felt the world was falling apart then?) which had a 3 month change of 34.7 points. What is even worse is that the current 3 month change is greater than the change we saw in this index between November 2007 and November 2008, which was a decline of 47.4 points. Now let's take a look at the same analysis with the Future Activity Index, which looks 6 months out:
Yup, that chart is correct, since 1968, we've never had a deterioration in this index that even came close to what we are seeing right now. There really is no way to sugar coat this, it is a disastrous reading. Also, the actual absolute reading itself is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008 when the world was coming apart at the seams.
It would be nice if we had a President who actually wanted to do something about the economy. After watching the GOP debate the other night, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't mind if any of them were President. They would all do a better job than the current joker whose idea of stimulus is taking money from the productive members of society and giving it to unskilled labor so they can dig holes.
Yes I agree. But first we’re going to need a government that has the balls to do this. It’s never going to happen. A POTUS alone cannot do it. China already owns our politics. The best quote I’ve heard in a while goes like this, “If voting worked, it would be illegal.”
They're probably all too busy fattening up their own golden parachutes.
Well I’m all for encouraging people like Donald Trump, Duncan Hunter and anyone else willing to stand up for America.
As long as Trump doesn’t sneak back into the presidential race somehow (that would be a mess) we need more like him.
uhhhhh, GM? The company that Obama wanted to use as s spokes company for company policy? Now banking its future on China, in China. This is the same company who was supportive of Obama’s more expensive fuel program
The DOW tracks the Euro/US$. The NYSE is nothing but a money tank. It’s a proxy for the Euro, maybe because so many companies a valuated in Euros.
Precisely. This is the orchestrated fallout that Obama has sought for his “revolution”. a important ingredient for his “hope and change”.
I don’t see anyone on our side doing anything to stop this.
What we see is the “capitalists” responding by taking their capital on a fishing trip waiting until this b/s has passed. Many small business peopla , the private sector do not want to risk their capital and will wait until the Obamarisk has passed. Consumer confidence in the government is way low too. Combined (!) they are a force to be reckoned with, and thats before the intended Government intermeddling by Obama ~with the intent of the Government controlling the economy.
You have to remember that America is the richest country.... and he wants to change that and its influence!
America is America and it will wake up and shake this mange flea/
err, camel butt flea
How can it be reconciled to believe America is the richest country, when we are 14 trillion dollars in debt?
We are not the richest country.
Arguably, we are the poorest.
Obama? like the wife you NEVER wanted. Like the wife.... she sees the shiny side but has no understanding of the debt and liabilities, yet in her portion she wants half of everything.... debt unseen.
Yet the bitch wants to take half and leave the debt behind.
He , like the wife, has no business sense and should not be sitting in that seat. He is ill prepared for a job that demands greater responsibility.
The idiom loses a little punch when pronounced “oss,” Rudie.
I see a lot of people who think that attacking the trade deficit will solve our budget deficit problem. And who get a little touchy when I point out that it won't.
Sadly the US Congress is going to give Barry another $2Trillion on the Debt Ceiling credit card.
Well ... the size of our economy is shrinking.
The reason our economy is shrinking is pretty simple - we send more money out of the country buying imports, than we collect selling exports.
By a massive amount.
America’s economy has become like a large balloon with a leak. A large, shrinking balloon with a leak.
As the balloon shrinks, we are all fighting with each other over the shrinking amount of air in that balloon.
Eventually the air will all be gone. Then we’ll all be SOL.
Everything is getting better and better.
Sorry, but as the Romney-Bachmann conspiracy unfolds, that's not going to be possible.
Cannot accept Romney. Wouldn't be prudent.
The correct quote is, "if voting could change the system, it would be illegal".
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