Why Timing Wins Races

MarkAmerica ^ | 09/15/2011 | Mark America

[MarkAmerica]

Having been a fan of NASCAR for decades, I've noticed what some others may have realized about Sarah Palin, and the importance of timing in official entry into the race for the nomination. Sarah Palin's been in the race, whether anybody realized it or not, since November 5th, 2008. Her position as McCain's running mate and the very positive influence she had on the race meant that the party's base would look to her for leadership in that position unless she openly demurred. After stepping aside from her office in July 2009, Governor Palin began to carry the burgeoning Tea Party's banner. The Tea Party was born as a reply to Obama's over-reaching, and Palin's relation to it merely accentuates the point: She's exactly the right candidate for America, but to win, she'll need to consider timing like a NASCAR veteran. It looks as though she has.

Have you ever watched a NASCAR race at a super-speedway like the tracks at Daytona or Talledega? These races really come down to a good deal of tactical thinking in the last few laps. First, you must survive the first 490 miles or more to be present for the finish. Through much of the early portions of these races, you will notice generally fewer cautions as drivers are usually very patient. They don't wish to cause pile-ups early on, or worse, become involved in one, and at speeds exceeding 200 mph at times, it's really not difficult to upset the carefully balanced racing machines. It's a test of driver, pit-crew, and machine, but more importantly, the mind. These high-speed tracks are for strategic thinkers. Early, you simply must stay out of harms way, conserving your equipment and fuel, while not permitting yourself to fall too far out of the running. Drivers are generally conservative in the early and middle stages of the race if they hope to be around for the finish.

As the laps near the end of the race approach, drivers begin to make much more risky moves. They're less apt to wait patiently in line, and a specific tactical positioning becomes all-important. If you're not familiar with NASCAR, or the peculiarities of the super-speedways, generally considered to be the tracks of two miles or greater in some sort of oval configuration, you may not understand why it's so very important that drivers ride along in line for most of the race. In racing at the high speeds attained at these larger tracks, there is a phenomenon known as "drafting," whereby two cars nose-to-tail can together go much faster than one car by itself. This is because at those high speeds, one of the biggest limiting factors to going even faster is the resistance of drag from the air the car must punch through in order to go around the track. By lining up tightly, two cars still have the mass of two cars, and the power of two cars, but only the drag of 1-3/4s(approximate.) This means that the two cars together can push to slightly higher speeds, perhaps 5-8% more, but in the vicinity of 200 mph, that's not insubstantial.

If you watch one of these races, you'll quickly realize that they become most exciting in the last ten or fewer laps. At that point, pairs of cars will split off in order to press for the lead, but a car left hung out without a drafting partner is in big trouble. Worse, if two cars get a short distance out front, and get out of line too soon to battle for the lead, what often happens is that those who have remained behind are able to quickly catch up, because while two cars in line may have the drag of 1-3/4 cars, two battling side-by-side have the drag of nearly three cars because the air compressed between them can't flow off of their front ends smoothly. In this scenario, those staying in line in 3rd, 4th, and 5th place quickly catch up the front-runners and usually overtake them because they became too greedy, too soon. Think of it as NASCAR's version of "peaking early."

The most thoroughly crafty drivers are those who put themselves in the position to be near the front at the end, in order to take advantage of another phenomenon called the "sling-shot." This consists of using the draft of a partner in front of you to actually gain more speed than the car in front. If you've ever passed a large tractor-trailer on the highway at speed, you may have experienced something similar as you found your car being pulled toward the areas of low pressure immediately behind the truck or inside the wake it cuts through the air. This can accelerate you toward the truck, and in a similar way, a skilled driver can use the drafting partner in front of him to gain speed. What the "sling-shot" requires is using this phenomenon in tandem with a wide sweeping break away from the stream, and frequently, a drafting partner or two will fall in behind. The key to carrying this out is timing. If you do it too soon, you'll have the same thing done to you. If you wait too long, you won't have the space to get it done, and because you're not out front, it will be easier to get caught in another driver's wreck. Timed correctly, this maneuver yields the best chance for success, and in race after race, the people who led most of the way are eclipsed by this maneuver within seconds of the finish. You might wonder why the driver in fourth would go along with the driver in third, and the driver in fifth would go with them. The answer is that in choosing to do so, you increase your chance to finish higher, in this scenario finishing first, second, and third, rather than third, fourth, and fifth.

You may ask how this could apply to Sarah Palin. Simply put, despite not being officially in the race, only Palin is in double digits other than the two alleged front-runners. That's right. She's sitting in third, and the front-runners have begun to battle side-by-side. In two consecutive debates, Perry and Romney have been hammering one another, and it's beginning to take its toll. The two are beginning to induce a great deal of drag for their efforts, and the rest of the field will begin to catch up. All that is now required is the momentum of a sling-shot maneuver, and only one person is really positioned to carry it out, but timing will be critical.

What does a NASCAR fan in Texas know about the competition that would apply to politics? I can tell you without flinching that just as the race of 500 miles frequently comes down to the maneuvers executed within sight of the finish, so it is also true that a presidential primary can come down to those last weeks before state ballots begin to close to new entries. As we turn and burn toward that date, the front-runners are now all the more conscious of their rear-view mirrors. They can see the lady from the north bearing down on them with steely resolve, and she may well have drafting partners, but if she can gain enough momentum, and time it correctly, she won't really need them. There's still a lot of track ahead, but the front-runners know she's back there, and much like her comments Monday night about Perry, she occasionally gives them a little bump to remind them she's back there. The closer to the end we get, the more tempting the side-by-side battle between the two leading egos will become, and then, when they will have thought themselves safely ahead, and beyond her reach, the crowd will start roaring "Run Sarah, Run" and the real race for the nomination will begin in earnest, as with a momentum her competitors hadn't thought possible, she suddenly roars up to fill their mirrors. She drops down to the inside in turn four with the field following her, and suddenly the two-car race has come down to three, but she has the momentum...

As they come to the line, the crowd thunders: "Game on!"

[MarkAmerica]

I hope this helps some to understand.

[Vor Lady]

Great analogy. Also like horse racing when the field is pretty evenly matched. Although it feels like Sarah is more like Secretariat to me.

[GBA]

I think it will be more like Bristol than Daytona, but the NASCAR analogy works for me.

[MarkAmerica]

Patience is the key. It’s true that Secretariat is a good analogy, but he varied his racing style. Think about his Kentucky Derby win in this context. BTW, somebody I know has used the Secretariat angle before...(Wonder who??) LOL Thanks!

[MarkAmerica]

Well, you will know what I mean when I say that the last half-mile of Daytona often takes on the character of Bristol...LOL

[Coldwater Creek]

What I completely understand is that as much as I like Gov. Palin, she CANNOT win in the general election, I don't believe that she could win the primary. Having said that, if Mrs. Palin is the R nominee, I will do every thin that I'm able to see that she becomes the next POTUS.

[Tallguy]

The presidential race is more like the NASCAR season, than a single race. Each state primary is like an individual race. Some are short-tracks, others are intermediate, and still others are superspeedways. Romney will run strong in the Northeast Short-tracks, but I suspect he’ll have trouble in the large-state superspeedways. It will be interesting to observe the “temporary alliances” as each candidate seeks individual advantage.

Another factor is “gas”. Many of the lesser candidates will fall out for no other reason than they will runout of money. Pawlenty has already gone to the garage.

We should be prepared for the slingshot maneuver to fail. It doesn’t always work as you pointed out. The net effect could be that Palin’s (draft support) effort may nudge another candidate with similar views on major issues over the line.

[Coldwater Creek]

Yes, more like Bristol, wreck after wreck under the lights.

[MarkAmerica]

I think your assumption about her electability in the general is way off. We’ll see...

[MarkAmerica]

Tallguy, I agree, but there’s only so much you can cram into one article. I had to assume some people wouldn’t know much about racing, never mind the complexities of a NASCAR season.

I did mention gas.

The slingshot can fail, but in this case, I think she’s been bump-drafting well along, and now it’s going to take a big sweeping move to the front. I could be wrong, but that’s how I see it. Thanks!

[SamAdams76]

What I completely understand is that as much as I like Gov. Palin, she CANNOT win in the general election...

It is your line of thinking that has saddled us with RINO nominees like John McCain, Bob Dole and yes, even George Bush (all two of them). I simply don't understand why so many conservatives feel we need a watered-down Republican in order to win a general. RINOs tend to lose general elections and even when they win, it is usually a squeaker with no real mandate (and a mixed Congress) so nothing really changes - the conservative cause is NOT advanced in these situations.

On the other hand, Ronald Reagan, the last "true" conservative to represent the Republicans produced two LANDSLIDES as well as a mandate for change. For those old enough to remember Reagan's first term, it was a very exciting time to be an American. We were transformed from the malaise of the Carter years to a world superpower once more with a roaring economy.

And yes, back in those early days of the 1980 campaign, there were whispers in Republican circles that Reagan "can't win the general...just can't win", he's just too "extreme", better off with a moderate like that nice man George Bush or maybe we should take a harder look at that John Anderson fellah, blah, blah, blah.

Listen up people, we are still MONTHS away from the first primary/caucus votes and already we are hand-wringing over the fact that we better latch on to an establishment candidate that can attract enough "moderates" to win the election. This has proven time and time again to be a POOR strategy.

Why are we allowing mainstream media and a few polling outfits to decide for us who should be the Republican nominee? Why do we need to get behind the establishment candidate that mainstream media has anointed for us and cast the real conservative candidates off to the side because we buy into the media-spun meme that they "just can't win."

Nominating Romney or Perry will be an awful mistake. Those are the two candidates who will have the HARDEST time beating Obama. And even if they win, nothing will change because these candidates are part of the Beltway establishment. They will simply not have the coattails that could potentially create a super-majority in the Congress that will advance a more conservative agenda.

Why else do you think these two are being shoved down our throats by the mainstream media as our "only two" alternatives? The Democrats always do well when they are running against a RINO.

I'm beginning to wonder if the Republicans will ever learn.

[MarkAmerica]

I agree with all of that. Truth is, I think the establishment of the GOP would rather lose than have another mainstream conservative populist akin to Reagan.

[Coldwater Creek]

This will be the last general election that I will have the privilege to vote in. I have a terminal illness and have thought long and hard about how I want my vote to count. Our country that I love very much (we are an active duty military family) cannot stand another 4 years of Marxist, Communist, ungodly rule.

[SamAdams76]

Sorry to hear that and I sincerely hope you beat the odds and get to vote in future elections as well.

I too will probably end up voting for whoever the Republicans nominate. While there is still time, I am going to do the best I can to help nominate a true Tea Party conservative as opposed to settling now for yet another establishment-backed candidate.

[MarkAmerica]

I’m sorry to read that. It’s a shame, but I can tell you’re not the sort to quit easily. Thanks for all you have done.

[Friendofgeorge]

Are you saying...don’t expect an announcement from Gov Palin in the next 15 days?

[MarkAmerica]

I’m not saying anything about any particular date. I’m saying that whatever date she chooses, it will be based on her sense of timing, and that such timing is critical.

[Friendofgeorge]

Thanks, really I was only trying to get your sense. You would probably be surprised if she announced within the next 72 hours? I know I would be surprised, but only because it would seem to good to be true

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

OK, this statement is so stupid, you’re not to be taken seriously about anything.

[Friendofgeorge]

I am also very sorry to learn of your illness..God Bless you!!!

As for Palin not being electable? I am sorry not sure who you are for, let me assume it`s for Perry.

Perry is reportedly a born again evangelical Christian, does not believe in Global warming, does not believe in evolution (thank God), believes in the right to own a gun, fish and hunt etc. Is pro life (reportedly) as any Christian is required to be.

Have I left something out? These are all the things the left hates about Sarah Palin, so why would these same people have a higher opinion of Sarah Palin? The left will hate him just the same if he wins the nomination!

The left will say if you vote for Perry he will make abortion illegal etc etc etc, so how does that make him more electable than Palin?

If anything Sarah Palin is the genuine article has believed in these things since her youth, does not have the baggage that Perry has, such as supporting Gore in 1988, and missing completely the Reagan revolution.

I think you will find that he will have no more a easier time than Gov Palin. California,NY,Mass,etc etc are not going to go in the R column for Perry with the views he holds.

Gov Palin is the genuine article.

Again sorry to hear of your illness.