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My prediction
12/31/2011 | Nikos1121

Posted on 12/31/2011 2:37:19 PM PST by nikos1121

I've been on FR for several years. Dropped out temporarily when the dialogue turned pretty ugly a few months ago. I'm back now with a new found energy. For this reason I feel compelled to share my thoughts with fellow FRers here.

About 5 weeks ago, I decided to throw my support into Newt. As of yet I have no remorse, but I must admit there were times when I thought the world as I used to know it, was upside down when the likes of Ann Coulter, Mark STeyn and many many others, whose opinions I respected, came down hard against Newt even before the first primary. Coulter especially has run four consecutive columns blasting Newt. Think about that for a moment. She thinks we should all go home and give the nomination to Romney before there's been any primaries.

The lady is clearly not what we all thought. But this article is not about Ann Coulter, (whose CDs I might add have been donated to Goodwill this past week.)

Therefore, I had extreme joy when Jim Robinson came out recently for Newt, and expressed his own metamorphesis. Then came Thomas Sowell, Michael REagan and J. C. Watts.

YOu get the picture that the people with real courage are backing him, because they and we know in our hearts he will back us.

EVerything Newt says, I agree with. Most of time, it's a learning experience, as he brings up something that I hadn't thought about, for example that it would be far better for us to declare a war on finding a cure for Alzheimer's than to put money into "treating" the disease, similar to how we found cures for Polio and Small Pox. His thoughts on the Middle East and Asia are also profound.

But, I digress. I'm worried, Folks. I really don't see people coming around to Newt when one considers the money and backing Romney has. At least not in the short term. I see him taking third or fourth in Iowa, which actually might be a good thing, and as you will read, Newt is in good company as REagan also lost Iowa.

Therfore, here is my prediction:

I think we will see a situation very similar to what happened when Reagan was in the primary 1980. As many will recall, on Novmenber 4, 1979, 52 Americans were held hostage by a group of Islamist students and militants who took over the American Embassy in Tehran in support of the Iranian Revolution.

But did you know that one month later on December 29, 1979 the Soviets invade Afghanistan? It woke a lot of people up. We realized that we had a milk toast president who was the cause of all of it, similar to how we see the economic crisis in the world most likely the result of Obama's policies.

The Iowa Caucus was won by George H. W. Bush, not Reagan. Going into NH, Reagan paid for a debate among himself and the candidates at the time. Bush refused to participate at first. It was the famous debate when REagan said, when they turned off the microphone, "I paid for this microphone, now turn it on!"

Reagan won SC and swept the South although he lost 5 Southern Primaries to Bush. Kennedy was also competing against CArter.

HOwever, I think it was the Iranian crisis that showed us then that Reagan was the man for the times.

I think the same thing will happen early next year. A crisis will occur overseas or at home. It will show not only Obama's weakness as a leader, but also the weakness of the other candidates most notably Santorum, who will find a renewed hope in doing well in Iowa, and Romney. If Perry stays in the fight he will rise too, but most of all so will Newt.

Reagan had the nomination wrapped up by the Summer. He stumbled frequently along the way, and like Newt was constantly hit by the media. Here's one example when he told an ethnic joke off the record to some reporters.

From the book REndevous with Destiny----

Always fond of a good laugh, he, (Reagan) told an ethnic joke to several aides and then was asked by a reporter — off the record — to repeat it. Reagan did: “How do you tell the Polish one at a cockfight? He’s the one with the duck. How do you tell the Italian? He’s the one who bets on the duck. How do you tell when the mafia is there? The duck wins.” The reporters all laughed, but the joke earned the condemnation of several sanctimonious elements in the national media, including ABC, which incredibly aired the off-the-record gag. Ed Meese quipped, “There goes Connecticut,” an allusion to the state’s heavy Italian population.

The New York Times surprisingly defended Reagan in an editorial, saying the joke reflected his “geniality” and not “bigotry.” The whole thing became ridiculous when the president of Yale, Bart Giamatti, released a statement calling on Reagan to apologize to everybody, “including the ducks.” Reagan did a bit of tap dancing for the media, apologized, and promised to tell only Irish jokes in the future."..... [end excerpt]

IN summary, I predict that circumstances that are soon to occur will show us all that Newt is the right man for the time.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Government
KEYWORDS: newt; republicanprimary
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To: nikos1121

Good for you. Newt is my pick as well...Romney’s forces have been on Newt since he rose in the polls.

And, can you just imagine a debate between Newt and zero...Newt would win hands down!!!


61 posted on 12/31/2011 10:50:36 PM PST by joyce11111
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To: bagman
One of the raps against Gingrich is that he was disorganized as Speaker of the House. The disarray of his campaign demonstrates that he has not gained any organizational skills.

Correctamundo. Newt seems to think that he will be the nominee because . . . well, because he's Newt Gingrich. But he doesn't seem to realize that he actually has to campaign in Iowa to win the votes of Iowans. Even at the end, he is reducing his campaign travel there by 50%.

62 posted on 12/31/2011 11:05:47 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: muawiyah
He also figured out how to make some real money ~ and I mean REAL MONEY. This guy is dripping with bucks.During his four years as Speaker, his net worth increased tenfold.
63 posted on 12/31/2011 11:13:45 PM PST by Hoodat (Because they do not change, Therefore they do not fear God. -Psalm 55:19-)
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To: Allegra

You can’t take a break; wait a week! I finally found one person on here that is open to Perry,Bachmann,Santorum.Anybody but Paul n RomneyCare.


64 posted on 01/01/2012 12:17:46 AM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: Hoodat
The money he made while Speaker is chump change compared to what he made later on.

If he was simply abstemious while Speaker and dropped half his pay (which was not immodest as these things are measured) into his Thrift Saving Account he'd easily have quadrupled his networth.

What he did later was in the tens of millions per annum and it wasn't by "investing".

65 posted on 01/01/2012 5:28:23 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah
We already know all of Newt's "dirty laundry". So what?

We do but most of the public doesn't. I wish Newt had a chance and it will be good to see Newt destroy Obama intellectually. But unfortunately our voting system and our voting public is hopelessly broken. The vast majority of "voters" don't vote for things like ideas or principles. They're shaped and manipulated by the media.

Like it or not they SEE Obama as a likeable family man who is the first black president. Maybe he hasn't been "successful" but that's because the job is harder than he thought. I know it sounds stupid but that's the way it is. In contrast the media will present Newt as a racist white guy who has been married and divorced multiple times and is part of the Washington establishment.

Romney will be painted as a racist white guy who will have more loyalty to his kooky religion than to the United States.

Note that I don't agree with these things, but this is how it's going to go down.

There is NO hope for the Republican party. It is gone. It is beyond the grasp and reach of true conservatives. Anyone who could claim to be a true conservative has been eliminated and/or marginalized.

66 posted on 01/01/2012 5:40:52 AM PST by DouglasKC
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To: DouglasKC

All of Newt’s foibles are considered signs of success in the African American community.


67 posted on 01/01/2012 5:59:26 AM PST by muawiyah
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To: JoSixChip

It seems to be that you don’t know the difference between a conservative and a republican...read up on that difference...


68 posted on 01/01/2012 6:15:20 AM PST by goat granny
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To: snippy_about_it
***as long as they aren’t named Mitt.***

Or Carter, or Clinton or Bush (on his domestic policys)

69 posted on 01/01/2012 6:20:15 AM PST by goat granny
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To: nikos1121

I’m neither for Newt, nor Romney.

I won’t rank our current slate of candidates because it depresses me.

But between Newt and Romney - I’m not sure who is better....a Northeastern Liberal Politician, or a Southern bullshit artist who takes others ideas and marches to the front of the parade?

I think if Newt gets the nod, we’ll see story after story about his “insider” lobbying and other baggage. I think that he cannot withstand a liberal media onslaught, so I do not think he’d beat Obama in the end. My opinion only.

I also do not think that anyone knows what Newt believes, or where he stands on any issue. I think you can know that he will compromise with the left, as that is his past experience.

I think his conversion to Catholicism was purely a political play.

I think that if the GOP doesn’t get their boy Romney, they’ll insist that Newt take moderate positions on just about everything so that the status quo is preserved - just as it would be with Romney. Does anyone think he will not sell out ANY conservative position to secure the nomination?

I think that is the only thing we DO know about Newt - he’ll change his position on anything if he thinks it will benefit him.

If Newt gets the nomination it won’t be because of his convictions - it will be because he’ll have changed his convictions to look more like Romney.

The problem is the GOP. Romney represents the status quo, Newt will do the same if he has to to get the nomination.

Nobody can make the case for Newt based on his conservative convictions.


70 posted on 01/01/2012 6:37:25 AM PST by RFEngineer
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To: joyce11111

“And, can you just imagine a debate between Newt and zero...Newt would win hands down!!!”

What makes you think Obama will debate anyone?


71 posted on 01/01/2012 6:40:45 AM PST by RFEngineer
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To: Hot Tabasco

Green Bay or other original NFL team


72 posted on 01/01/2012 6:47:36 AM PST by nikos1121
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To: CainConservative

>>...Why should we sell our souls and vote for Obama-lite?...<<

The *only* reason I can think of is, “to deny Obama another term wherein he will likely nominate one or more *LIFETIME* Supreme Court Justices.” That’s the only reason I can think of that would justify a Romney vote in the general-election.

So, to be clear where I stand:
Primary Election Strategy: “Anyone but Romney”
General Election Strategy: “The GOP candidate”

Other than that, even if nutty ol’ Ron Paul was elected, I doubt any of his crazier agenda items would be realized. He would need (at the very least) a cooperative congress and would also be reliant upon the doofus-duo of Boehner & McConnell to get anything done. Speaking of which, *any* of these candidates would be in the same boat relying on the serial-capitulating-doofus-duo to realize the candidate’s agenda.

For example, I’m optimistically predicting SCOTUS will invalidate Obamacare and I’m sure congress is desperately hoping they will too — which gets the RINO’s off the hook for doing the right thing. Congressional/RNC/Establishment agenda appears to be “do nothing that rocks the boat too much/play it safe”.

I do not see a candidate that can overcome that type of GOP congressional leadership & misfeasance. Hence, my realistic expectations are quite low for any of these candidates, if elected.

So I’m still at the “flip a coin” stage...


73 posted on 01/01/2012 7:32:36 AM PST by jaydee770
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To: goat granny
"It seems to be that you don’t know the difference between a conservative and a republican...read up on that difference..."

In this case, I think it would be more relevant to read up on the difference between an adult conversation and juvenile behavior.
74 posted on 01/01/2012 11:41:35 AM PST by JoSixChip (Top 10% of wage earners pay 70% of total income taxes collected. Bottom 50% pay less then 3%, fair?)
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To: JoSixChip

Ah beauty is in the eyes of the beholder...you have to let your inner child out once in a while...what better time to do it than dealing with politicans....:O)


75 posted on 01/01/2012 3:28:46 PM PST by goat granny
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To: JoSixChip
In this case, I think it would be more relevant to read up on the difference between an adult conversation and juvenile behavior.

And I tried to engage you in adult conversation and you have ignored me.
That tells me that you don't want a conversation, you want one of two things.
Either everyone agrees with you about Newt being the saviour of the GOP or you get to call them a juvenile.

Look in the mirror. (Pot, meet kettle)

76 posted on 01/01/2012 6:43:26 PM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Just another Joe

Had I felt you even had the most basic understanding of what my post was about, I would have responded.


77 posted on 01/01/2012 6:49:19 PM PST by JoSixChip (Top 10% of wage earners pay 70% of total income taxes collected. Bottom 50% pay less then 3%, fair?)
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To: RFEngineer

Newt said if Obama refuses to debate, he will follow him whereever he (obama) gives a speech, and within hours will dissect that speech live.


78 posted on 01/01/2012 6:55:34 PM PST by anglian
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To: JoSixChip
Had I felt you even had the most basic understanding of what my post was about, I would have responded.

Nice way to influence people to your candidate.
Should I call you a waahhmbulance?

I understand exactly what your post was about. You're high on Newt and, to you, anyone that isn't is an idiot and deserves your complete disdain.

Good luck with that.

79 posted on 01/01/2012 7:01:03 PM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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Newt Gingrich: I’ll trail Barack Obama until he debates - By ALEXANDER BURNS | 12/1/11 Newt Gingrich said Thursday night that if President Barack Obama declines his challenge to seven Lincoln-Douglas-style debates, he will follow the president everywhere he goes and rebut Obama’s remarks after he makes them.

His inspiration, Gingrich said, is Abraham Lincoln, who followed Stephen Douglas when he shied away from debating him.

If Obama ducks debating him, Gingrich said, “I will announce that as of this evening, the White House will be my scheduler, and wherever the president goes I will show up four hours later to respond to his speech.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69593.html


80 posted on 01/01/2012 7:01:38 PM PST by anglian
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