Skip to comments.My prediction
Posted on 12/31/2011 2:37:19 PM PST by nikos1121
I've been on FR for several years. Dropped out temporarily when the dialogue turned pretty ugly a few months ago. I'm back now with a new found energy. For this reason I feel compelled to share my thoughts with fellow FRers here.
About 5 weeks ago, I decided to throw my support into Newt. As of yet I have no remorse, but I must admit there were times when I thought the world as I used to know it, was upside down when the likes of Ann Coulter, Mark STeyn and many many others, whose opinions I respected, came down hard against Newt even before the first primary. Coulter especially has run four consecutive columns blasting Newt. Think about that for a moment. She thinks we should all go home and give the nomination to Romney before there's been any primaries.
The lady is clearly not what we all thought. But this article is not about Ann Coulter, (whose CDs I might add have been donated to Goodwill this past week.)
Therefore, I had extreme joy when Jim Robinson came out recently for Newt, and expressed his own metamorphesis. Then came Thomas Sowell, Michael REagan and J. C. Watts.
YOu get the picture that the people with real courage are backing him, because they and we know in our hearts he will back us.
EVerything Newt says, I agree with. Most of time, it's a learning experience, as he brings up something that I hadn't thought about, for example that it would be far better for us to declare a war on finding a cure for Alzheimer's than to put money into "treating" the disease, similar to how we found cures for Polio and Small Pox. His thoughts on the Middle East and Asia are also profound.
But, I digress. I'm worried, Folks. I really don't see people coming around to Newt when one considers the money and backing Romney has. At least not in the short term. I see him taking third or fourth in Iowa, which actually might be a good thing, and as you will read, Newt is in good company as REagan also lost Iowa.
Therfore, here is my prediction:
I think we will see a situation very similar to what happened when Reagan was in the primary 1980. As many will recall, on Novmenber 4, 1979, 52 Americans were held hostage by a group of Islamist students and militants who took over the American Embassy in Tehran in support of the Iranian Revolution.
But did you know that one month later on December 29, 1979 the Soviets invade Afghanistan? It woke a lot of people up. We realized that we had a milk toast president who was the cause of all of it, similar to how we see the economic crisis in the world most likely the result of Obama's policies.
The Iowa Caucus was won by George H. W. Bush, not Reagan. Going into NH, Reagan paid for a debate among himself and the candidates at the time. Bush refused to participate at first. It was the famous debate when REagan said, when they turned off the microphone, "I paid for this microphone, now turn it on!"
Reagan won SC and swept the South although he lost 5 Southern Primaries to Bush. Kennedy was also competing against CArter.
HOwever, I think it was the Iranian crisis that showed us then that Reagan was the man for the times.
I think the same thing will happen early next year. A crisis will occur overseas or at home. It will show not only Obama's weakness as a leader, but also the weakness of the other candidates most notably Santorum, who will find a renewed hope in doing well in Iowa, and Romney. If Perry stays in the fight he will rise too, but most of all so will Newt.
Reagan had the nomination wrapped up by the Summer. He stumbled frequently along the way, and like Newt was constantly hit by the media. Here's one example when he told an ethnic joke off the record to some reporters.
From the book REndevous with Destiny----
Always fond of a good laugh, he, (Reagan) told an ethnic joke to several aides and then was asked by a reporter off the record to repeat it. Reagan did: How do you tell the Polish one at a cockfight? Hes the one with the duck. How do you tell the Italian? Hes the one who bets on the duck. How do you tell when the mafia is there? The duck wins. The reporters all laughed, but the joke earned the condemnation of several sanctimonious elements in the national media, including ABC, which incredibly aired the off-the-record gag. Ed Meese quipped, There goes Connecticut, an allusion to the states heavy Italian population.
The New York Times surprisingly defended Reagan in an editorial, saying the joke reflected his geniality and not bigotry. The whole thing became ridiculous when the president of Yale, Bart Giamatti, released a statement calling on Reagan to apologize to everybody, including the ducks. Reagan did a bit of tap dancing for the media, apologized, and promised to tell only Irish jokes in the future."..... [end excerpt]
IN summary, I predict that circumstances that are soon to occur will show us all that Newt is the right man for the time.
It took him forever to get to a conclusion.
I agree Newt is the one that can beat Obama.
I hear ya brother!
I don’t want to vote for Newt. He is an untrustworthy backstabbing son of a b***h. However even THAT is better than Romney because at least Newt (when it suits him) is OUR untrustworthy, backstabbing son of a b***h.
I believe there are three candidate on the G.O.P. side that can run a nationwide campaign; Newt, Perry and Romney. I could vote for Newt. I’d hold my nose a little less for Perry but not much.
Would I vote Romney? Has hell frozen over?
I would say that only Romney absolutely can not beat Obama, although there are three others still runing who will not get large parts of the base.
Mitt Romney is better than Obama huh? Prove it. Other than PIGMENT tell me *3 major policy areas where they are different.
* note, you have to tell me these things based on what Romney or Obama have DONE not what they have SAID.
Ive come to the same conclusion about Newt, he is the one that makes me feel the best, I do believe as you do he is the correct man for the job ahead, I like Newt a lot.
That low life self centered scoundrel Newt has been on to the Islamic threat for years and has spoken up about it. From first hand experience I consider cancer a greater threat then high cholesterol or diabetes. Islamic infiltration into our country is a cancer.
Dr. Romney won't address that Islamic cancer anymore than clueless George Bush did. - Tom
Why should we sell our souls and vote for Obama-lite?
Thank you for taking the time and effort to compose this well reasoned and logical post. I agree with your analysis of the current situation.
I think Newt is the only “strong” person we have who will take on the economic mess and also stand up to the Insane rulers of the Mid and Far East.
I agree there is a similarity with Reagen’s run.
The only difference I can see is Mittens didn't marry a wookie.
I agree! I’m terribly proud of the vast majority of GOP candidates. I would gladly vote for anyone of them (excluding possibly one wacko). Here in GA I’ll participate inSuaper Tuesday. At Ppresent Newt is 1st with Perry a close 2nd. Santorum is not far behind. Michelle would make a fine VP candidate as wellas Rubio.
Media, GOP and RINOs are making the choice for us, bashing the tea party, the religious right and mainstream America in the process on a daily basis. They are bound and determined to force Romney upon us.
If so, America and Americans will suffer the consequences. A second McCain (Romney) candidacy will fracture the voting base (with Paul votes and write-ins) and Obama will be licking his chops (and this time not for hamburgers and fries behind Michelle's back). It might be the beginning of the end of the republican party as we know it.
Freerepublic dialogue "turned" ugly a FEW MONTHS AGO? - had you been in a coma before that?
Wait, you didn't spell "marshall law" wrong, did you? Or posted something that was already posted? OR LEAVE YOUR CAP LOCK ON?
yeah, well, then I could see it getting pretty ugly....
Good to have you back. And welcome to the “Go Newt” supporters. Sometimes it does get pretty brutal around here and I have lost my composure a few times for which I am always
regretful. Iowa is not the end all and Iowa is not an indicator of the final outcome even though there are those in the media and political arenas who will try to make more of Iowa than Iowa is worth with regard to the primaries. Iowa is a full of fine people and they will have their say, importantly. But look at who all is left.
Will the Establishment EVER learn? If Mitt ends up being the nominee I want to wish all the Establishment types the very best in getting him elected. They will have to work extra hard and donate extra amounts because I sure won't be doing it.
Again, good luck with that!
You should have dropped the dash and started a new sentence by capitalizing "had".
Next time get it right or you will be zotted!
One of the raps against Gingrich is that he was disorganized as Speaker of the House. The disarray of his campaign demonstrates that he has not gained any organizational skills. I like him for a lot of reasons, but a Gingrich presidency would make Bedlam seem a tranquil place by comparison.
If I believed Romney could definitely beat Obama and that the others didn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell, I might pragmatically hold my nose and vote for Romney. But I’m firmly convinced that Romney is actually the least electable nominee and that Obama would soundly defeat him in the general. Romney needs to be resisted at all costs if an Obama reelection is to be avoided.
Newt and Romney are in the same group. Big capital. Big government. Big healthcare. Big education. Government to the nth power. DC Beltway at it’s best. Let’s put together some legislation. Get all the key players involved. What will it take to make this deal happen. Makes me almost long for the old days of eating in good restaurants after an easy day consulting, listening to the lobbyists work their magic. Ahhhh the smell of politics.
Actually, makes me want to barf.
We don't need a president with "organizational skills".
We need a president with conservative principles and the vision of what is necessary to save the USA as a Constitutional republic.
"The greatest threat to liberty is an efficient bureaucracy."
An MBA (like Mitt) is just a glorified Administrative Assistant, with no principles, and no clear objective beyond serving well for some evil master and enhancing their own status.
Perry's my pick, but I can support any of them except Romney or Paul.
I'm about to take a break myself - I'm at that burnout phase just as you were - tired of all of the acrimony 'round here. Life (and my time in the States) is too short.
I believe I'll begin 2012 with a nice break from it all.
Happy New Year!
I don´t know. Maybe I´m superstitious but I think Newt jinxed himself a few weeks ago when he declared that he would be the nominee. NEVER do that. Joe Miller of Alaska did the same thing by declaring himself the next Senator from that state and look what happened.
I was a Cain fan, now I think Newt would make a good candidate. Don’t worry about Newt’s electability; see my tag line. The election is Obama’s to lose and at this point I don’t see how Obama can raise his sinking ship and get any more voters than he has today.
I still like Michelle Bachmann - I know, "not a snowballs' chance...", but I vote for who I like in the primaries, and who I must in the general (line stolen from another Freeper).
Among the leaders, I like Newt, although with Santorum gettting legs he's the closest to Bachmann in policy (social and fiscal).
He can hire guys to do the organization thing. Lots of good folks waiting for the winds of Washington DC to change.
I’ll admit I’d like to see Newt in a debate with Obama but I prefer it when ex-Governors run the country, as long as they aren’t named Mitt.
I’m hoping Perry gains momentum here in the South.
I am going to write in Sarah Palin
My memory is that the Soviets invaded Afghanistan on Christmas day, 1979, not when this guy decided they did.
With that instant fact check, how many other predictions need we bother to scrutinize?
I am literally stunned when I watch some of the vicious unfounded attacks on conservatives by the GOP.
I’m with you. I don’t trust Mr. Newt after the Pelosi thing. I know he has said it was a dumb thing to do, but does he know WHY it was a dumb thing to do. That’s important.
That certainly explains your innate ramblings and personal attacks.
Just look at how long it takes to get the Freepathons done now. Half the FR supporters either left or were kicked out for being not “pure enough”.
I think that it will be good if we do money bombs at important times.
So when Newt says that 300 pages of Obamacare are "pretty good" and that he'll include those 300 pages in his own health care bill, you are in agreement with that? Newt may consider this to be a 'conservative idea', but I surely do not.
I dunno about your statement that people are not warming up to Newt. I was on my facebook page and over on the side was an appeal by NewsMax to vote if you would/or do support Newt if he is the nominee. I decided, what the heck I want to see how many do support him so I took the survey (yeah, I know I’ll probably be innundated with junk mail now). The results were that 55% (nearly 97,000 people) said yes with Romney only getting 14% (nearly 25,000)and all the others in single digits except Ron Paul at 12%. Then it asked if you would vote again for Obama....77% said NO! Maybe all those polls showing Newt in 4th or 5th place might be a little wrong, I hope.
Being on Newsmax might skew it just a little, lol.
Newt is probably the smartest candidate in the race. There is a lot to like about newt Gingrich. I used to love him, but, I have no time for an adulterer especially a serial adulterer, period. That he made millions off Fannie and Freddie is horrible but it is not adultery (although close). Immigration, give the people who have been here a long time a path to citizenship? So the longer you break the law the less you get punished or the more you get rewarded? Making ads about global warming with the likes of Pelosi, I'm sorry Newt you and I are done.
There is nothing to dislike about Michelle Bachmann. I don't know why the FR isn't all over her helping her to get the noination, she is the real deal in her personal life, professional life and in her political life.
As far as beating Obama, any of the Republicans running could easily beat him. I'm not so sure that Obama will be running. Hitlary has an election committee, we may have to beat her. That will not be nearly as easy as Obama. Hitlary will get female votes that Obama couldn't touch. People will vote for her because she is a woman just like many people voted for Obama simply because he was black. With Ron Paul as a third party candidate she will win hands down just like her husband did without a plurality. Neither of Clintons wins gained even 50% of the vote.
I will vote for whomever the Republicans put up, not because they will necessarily represent me well but because they will work best with the Republicans in congress.
The Press hates Newt. They hate all Republicans but the absolutely despise Newt. Newt has a lot of history not all of it good, the press will bring up every word he has ever said that can hurt him.
We all have different reasons for who we like. I have a nephew who voted Obama and says he will again. I don't hate the kid, I just think he is stupid. Being stupid is not a crime. Stupidity deserves our pity not our hate.
I knew Reagan, Newt is no Reagan.
Doesn’t matter. Both Newt and Romney are sure losers against Obama. Both have been in politics so long that there’s tons of dirty laundry to be brought out and Obama and the MSM won’t hesitate to do so.
I'll say to you what I feel every time I read this same type of drivel day after day on FR.
So, you're going on record as defending the big government liberal? Why is it "drivel" to call a liberal a liberal, when his record in public service proves it beyond a shadow of doubt?
Newt is no Sarah Palin. But since she’s not running Newt is the best of the ones currently running. He has made some mistakes but nobody else has anything like The Contract With America on their resume.
Newt is a legislator who has a gift of gab and can employ the buzz-paragraphs.
I’ll take a guy/gal with executive experience over that every time, even if they may not articulate as well.
“...but I think Newt jinxed himself a few weeks ago when he declared that he would be the nominee.”
Maybe, maybe not. Remember Obummer many times (and Moochelle) declared Obummer would be the next President...like they knew something we didn’t, and it happened. I was amazed at their presumption, and equally amazed when he won the election (by hook and by crook).
He's actually written real books, and read real books, and done research. He knows what polls are about ~ and he also understands auguries ~ and I'd just bet NONE of the candidates we've had for the last century knew what an augury was!
If called upon, he's prepared to examine the entrails of a sheep and identify the principal organs and give us a fair description of their condition and function.
He also figured out how to make some real money ~ and I mean REAL MONEY. This guy is dripping with bucks.
Your typical retired politician will make some money by peddling his influence. Newt left Congress on a sour note. He peddled his knowledge ~ not his influence ~ he had none left.
Still, those things are no reason to vote for the guy, but try this one ~ he's the first politician in a century to figure out how to come up with a balanced budget!!!!
He stands apart from the common herd.
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