Posted on 01/02/2012 9:03:46 AM PST by parksstp
Well here we go, the Iowa Caucuses are now just a day away. While I felt good about the simulation I performed last week, it appears all but shot now. The good news is that the numbers are still good, I just have to move the names around a little bit.
In this thread, we’ll go county-by-county and analyze the vote totals and the most likely outcomes. Your own comments and analysis are always welcomed. Again this isn’t as scientific as some might think, and probably relies more on common sense.
One last item. If this does turn out to be successful, I will apply a similar model to SC and it’s 46 counties. I was planning to also do NH, but there are just too many damn townships to deal with. CNN does not provide township breakdowns for the 2008 NH Primary, but they are available at the NH SOS website. Bottom line: Romney takes Hillsborough and Merrimack, along with the cities of Manchester, Nashua, and Portsmouth, that combined with a 60%+ turnout, make it impossible for a challenger to strongly emerge here. My guess is he gets close to or over the 50% mark. Ron Paul probably gets about 18%, Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich both get about 14-16%, and Perry/Santorum/Bachmann combined <2%.
2008: Caucus Turnout: 508/11%
2012 Projected Turnout: 515/11% (1.5% increase based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: Far NW IA, looks to be made up of almost 50% Evangelicals here. Other than Osceola County, Ron Paul didn’t perform very well in NW IA. It’s counties like Lyon to watch how the conservative vote splits. As you can see here, Huck beat Romney by 22 points. It’s important to pick up margins in these evangelical counties to offset the more moderate areas of SW IA and Eastern IA.
In my first analysis, I shorted Huntsman, giving him just above a 0.50% total statewide margin, while his real statewide numbers will be closer to 2 or 3%. In Lyon, I give him about 6 votes or 1%. With Michele Bachmann tanking, you’d expect her to hold some ground in a social conservative county like Lyon. Here, I give her about 36 votes or 7%. Mitt Romney, probably consolidates his support from 2008 and picks up about a 1/5 of the McCain votes from last time. I give him about 127 votes or 25%. Ron Paul didn’t do well here in 2008 and I’m hesitant to increase his numbers too far up. Originally, I had him at 9% here, but based on current statewide polling, he is probably picking up closer to 67 votes, or 13% here.
Rick Santorum has been surging and the polls suggest the undecided may be moving in his direction. For now, I see him getting about 108 votes, or 21%. The plurality of Huckabee votes that Gingrich had a few weeks ago are gone. Lyon will still be a good showing for him, and he’ll pick up around 89/17% here. That leaves Rick Perry, he will also do good by polling standards here, garnering the remaining 82 votes/16%.
Unfortunately, Lyon sets the stage for what many conservatives fear is going to happen---the fracturing of the vote, allowing Romney to win pluralities in counties he should not. This does not bode well for the rest of the state.
COUNTY#2: SIOUX/ORANGE/NW IA – STRONG GOP COUNTY 2008: Huck: 1,147/53% Romney: 307/14% Thompson: 213/ 10% McCain: 346/16% Paul: 137/6% Rudy: 26/1% Hunter: 3/0%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 2,179/16%
2012 Projected Turnout: 2,225/16% (0.2% increase based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: This appears to be another heavily evangelical, heavily conservative county. First, the easy stuff. Huntsman will get about 23 votes or 1%. Because this is another heavily evangelical county, this will be one of the few places Bachmann will make it over 8% with 178 votes. Again, Romney consolidates his 2008 support and gets close to a 1/3 of the McCain voters here for 401/18%. I still have my doubts about Ron Paul making a massive jump in these NW counties, but if polling statewide is correct, he will probably receive about 334 votes or 15%.
This is a county that Rick Santorum has to perform well in. But because of how the vote is currently split, I give him about 26% or 579 votes here. That leave Newt and Perry, who I see each getting around 16% with Newt having a few more votes than Perry.
COUNTY#3 – PLYMOUTH/ LE MARS/NW IA – LIKELY GOP 2008: Huck: 304/25% Romney: 415/34% Thompson: 171/ 14% McCain: 201/16% Paul: 101/8% Rudy: 30/3% Hunter: 3/0%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 1,225/15%
2012 Projected Turnout: 1,281/16% (2.5% increase based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: This is a much more moderate county, but still tends to have a good share of conservatives, just not as large as Sioux or Lyon. Huntsman is more likely to get 2-3% here. For now, I’ll give him 26 votes/2%. Chances are good, Bachmann will struggle to get to 6% here, so I top her out at 77 votes. Once again, I disagree that Paul will get a big jump in these counties, but if the polls are to be believed, he has to get about 15% here to raise his overall state total towards 20%. Once again, Romney consolidates his supports and picks up a few more votes for 448/35%. At best, Santorum is probably looking at 17% here or 218 votes. Gingrich probably picks up 13% or 167 votes, while Perry picks up around 153 votes, or 12%.
COUNTY#4 – WOODBURY / SIOUX CITY/ NW IA – LEAN GOP 2008: Huck: 780/23% Romney: 1,309/38% Thompson: 567/16% McCain: 422/12% Paul: 275/8% Rudy: 103/3% Hunter: 5/0%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 3,461/16%
2012 Projected Turnout: 3,632/16% (0.7% increase based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: Moderate Sioux City was a firewall for Romney in 2008 thanks to Huck and Thompson splitting the conservative vote. Now with four people splitting the vote, it will be even better for him. This is a place Huntsman probably gets at least 3% of the vote or 109 votes. Again, Bachmann will be lucky if she holds onto 6% here or 218 votes. Paul probably bounces up here too with around 18% of the vote, or 654 votes. Once again, Romney consolidates his support, but the gain here is mitigated a little by Huntsman’s 3%, so Romney is held under 40% to about 39% or 1,416 votes. Perry probably stalls at 10% or 363 votes. Santorum and Gingrich are probably closer in this more moderate county. Santorum gets around 13% to Gingrich’s 11%, but it could easily be flip-flopped or both could be closer to 12% here.
COUNTY#5 – MONONA/ONAWA/WEST IA – LEAN GOP 2008: Huck: 95/29% Romney: 117/36% Thompson: 50/15% McCain: 38/12% Paul: 20/6% Rudy: 8/2% Hunter: 0/0%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 328/14%
2012 Projected Turnout: 272/12% (5.5% Decrease based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: Small county, looks like a mixed bag of stuff. Huntsman gets about 2%. Due to the small size and smaller conservative base, Bachmann will be closer to 5% here at best. Paul gets to 12% here at best. Due to population declines/Huntsman, Romney’s support goes down to about 34%. What evangelical base is there probably rallies around Santorum to give him 19%. Gingrich gets about 15% with Perry getting about 13%.
UPDATE: With 5% of Counties Reporting the Totals are: Romney: 2,484 – 31.34% Santorum: 1,429 – 18.03% Paul: 1,280 – 16.15% Gingrich: 1,053 – 13.29% Perry: 987 – 12.45% Bachmann: 523 – 6.60% Huntsman – 169 – 2.13%
Heavily slanted with Sioux City. Romney’s percentage will come down as more conservative counties come in. How much is the question.
Here is a simulation of how the Iowa convention delegation will be voting:
100% Romney.
Only 5 counties? There’s a whole lot more than 5.
I know, I have to split them up in groups of 5, otherwise one post will be way too long to tread through the info. Working on the others now.
I have come to my own conclusion....Until Paul and Bachman go home where they belong...the whole thing is a farce.
The farse is complete when the convention picks Romney.
Far more valuable, IMHO, than the legions of professional pundits and spinmeisters with agendas.
Thanks for sharing this with us.
ping
COUNTY #6 – HARRISON/ LOGAN / SW IA – LEAN GOP
2008: Huck: 167/31% Romney: 183/35% Thompson: 56/ 11% McCain: 44/8% Paul: 65/12% Rudy: 14/3% Hunter: 1/0%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 530/14%
2012 Projected Turnout: 525/13% (1.5% decrease based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: Another small, mixed bag county which saw population decline, a recurring trend in IA. Possible Huntsman gets, 3%, but I’ll limit him to 2% here. Also another county where Bachmann will be fighting to get to 6%. Paul probably bumps up to 16%. Romney falls back due to the population decline to around 33%. Santorum probably picks up around 19% here. Gingrich picks up around 13%. And Perry pulls in around 11%.
COUNTY#7 – POTTAWATTAMIE/COUNCIL BLUFFS/SW IA – LEAN GOP
2008: Huck: 571/22% Romney: 854/33% Thompson: 355/ 14% McCain: 352/13% Paul: 300/11% Rudy: 154/6% Hunter: 18/1%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 2,604/12%
2012 Projected Turnout: 2,664/12% (1.5% decrease based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: Another mixed bag, though a major metropolitan area. This county, along with East IA is where Huntsman might make his best showing. 4% for him here is not unreasonable. Bachmann can probably make it to 7% here. Romney probably does well in the county and picks up 34%. This is also a metro area Ron Paul will be trying to do well in. He probably gets close to 19% here. That’s leaves Santorum to get around 16%, Gingrich around 11%, and Perry 9%.
COUNTY#8 – MILLS/GLENWOOD/SW IA – LIKELY GOP
2008: Huck: 155/26% Romney: 126/24% Thompson: 98/ 18% McCain: 76/14% Paul: 52/10% Rudy: 25/5% Hunter: 0/0%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 532/13%
2012 Projected Turnout: 625/14% (4% Increase based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: Another pretty evenly matched county between the moderates and conservatives. Look for Huntsman to get at least 2% here. Bachmann once again is around 6% if she is lucky here. Paul probably takes about 18% here, and Romney slightly increases his support from last time to 25%. Santorum probably sees 20% here with Gingrich at about 16, and Perry at about 13%.
COUNTY#9 – FREMONT / SIDNEY/SW IA – LEAN GOP
2008: Huck: 55/29% Romney: 53/28% Thompson: 26/ 14% McCain: 26/14% Paul: 24/12% Rudy: 5/3% Hunter: 2/1%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 191/9%
2012 Projected Turnout: 181/9% (1% Decrease based on 2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: This is one of the smallest counties in IA. Because of this, I suspect it might be targeted for manipulation by the Paulbots, but still the conservative/moderate demographic is about the same. Huntsman probably gets 2% here. Bachmann will be somewhere between 5-6%, probably closer to 6 just because each vote is larger here. Romney gets about 27% support this time around. Santorum gets about 17%, Gingrich about 14%, and Perry 11%. That leaves the Paulbots vote, who could probably pull 23% here with just 41 votes.
COUNTY#10 – OSCEOLA / SIBLEY / NW IA – LIKELY GOP
2008: Huck: 78/31% Romney: 52/20% Thompson: 17/ 7% McCain: 37/14% Paul: 66/26% Rudy: 4/2% Hunter: 1/0%
2008: Caucus Turnout: 255/12%
2012 Projected Turnout: 195/10% (5% Decrease based on
2004/2008 General Election and 2012 Projected GOP Totals)
Analysis: Here’s a problem. This county was infiltrated by Paulbots in 2008, and with 5% voter population increase, figures to be worse. Paul could very well get about 38% in this county. I guess I know where I’m NOT moving to. Anyways, Huntsman probably only get 1% here, and Bachmann will be no higher than 5% here. I like Santorum to get around 17% here, with Gingrich getting about 12%, and Perry 9%. That leaves Romney with about 18%, a slight drop from 2008 due to the Paul surge.
UPDATE: With 10% of Counties Reporting:
Romney – 3,803 – 31.39%
Santorum – 2,144 – 17.70%
Paul – 2,098 – 17.32%
Gingrich – 1,562 – 12.89%
Perry – 1,402 – 11.57%
Bachmann – 800 – 6.66%
Huntsman 306 – 2.53%
The East/West Parts of the State are favorable to Romney and Paul. The conservatives have to make the difference up in the more conservative part s of the state.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.