Mitt Romney and why the Virginia-Colorado scenario means his defeat

July 14, 2012 | techno

[techno]

Search around the internet and among most pundits you will find this conclusion:

Among sure blue states and blue states that lean blue President Obama now commands 247 electoral votes (EV) adjusted for the 2010 census.

These states include:

Hawaii (4)

Washington state (12)

Oregon (7)

California (55)

New Mexico (5)

Minnesota (10)

Wisconsin (10)

Michigan (16)

Illinois (20)

Pennsylvania (20)

New York State (29)

Delaware (3)

Maryland (10)

New Jersey (14)

Connecticut (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (4)

DC (3)

Now Mitt Romney commands 180 EV adjusted for the 2010 census:

Alaska (3)

Idaho (4)

Montana (3)

Wyoming (3)

Utah (6)

Arizona (11)

Texas (38)

Oklahoma (7)

Kansas (6)

Nebraska (5)

South Dakota (3)

North Dakota (3)

Missouri (10)

Arkansas (6)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Alabama (9)

Georgia (16)

South Carolina (9)

West Virginia (5)

Kentucky (8)

Tennessee (11)

Now that accounts for 427 EV which leaves 111 EV outstanding.

Now here is how they break down:

a) 5 largest battleground states

Indiana (11)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

North Carolina (15)

Florida (29)

Total 86 EV

And finally 4 smaller swing states:

Colorado (9)

Nevada (6)

Iowa (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Total 25 EV

Now here is how a lot of pundits see the 2012 election. Bottom line--Romney needs to win 4 of the 5 largest battleground states: Indiana appears to be in the bag, but he needs to win Florida for sure and 2 of 3 of Ohio, VA, and NC at a bare minimum to have any chance of becoming the president.

For example with the Goode candidacy putting Virginia in doubt for Romney if Romney were to win Indiana, Ohio, NC and Florida that would increase his total by 73 EV to 253 EV. He would therefore need 17 EV to eke out a bare victory.

Now why I call it the Virgina-Colorado scenario is if Romney loses Virginia he is then forced to win Colorado with its 9 EV and and 2 out of 3 of Iowa, Nevada and NH. In other words if Romney loses both Virginia and Colorado, Obama will be re-elected.

So this begs two questions:

a) What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?

b) What can Romney do to have any chance of winning Colorado?

Imho, he needs to put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket who has the ability to "steal" Goode's conservative support away from him. Otherwise he has to pray Goode doesn't get the 10,000 required signatures to get on the ballot or Goode dies of a heart attack.

As for Colorado, he needs to put on the ticket a westerner with either libertarian or Hispanic ties at a minimum or a rock-ribbed conservative to win over evangelical voters in Colorado. A cushy safe moderate won't cut it in CO or VA.

And conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question: Do you really want to go into the election with a candidate as flawed as Romney or failing that don't you think it would be in your best interests to demand Romney put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket to at least to give him a shot at either Virginia or Colorado or both?

[JLS]

So you have advanced training in statistic and can calculate the correct standard error for polls of different samples from different populations and know how to correct the sloppy work of RCP into something meaningful?

As for Rsmussen giving anyone any state, the don’t and the can’t. That is decided on election day.

[Hildy]

Romney is going to win Wisconsin.

[Benjamin Dover]

Obama 182
Romney 356

Mickey Mouse would win against Obowma.....Palin should have run.

[TheBattman]

Regardless of what the pundits or polls say -

Romney needs to run like he REALLY wants to win. HE needs to not keep the kid gloves on as McLame did in 2008.

He needs to pick a solid Conservative for the VP slot, and he needs to run like he is 5 pts. behind... and he needs to keep running all the way until inauguration. IF he doesn’t, then the Rats could still take (steal) this election.

After all, The only break in campaigning Obummer has done in the last 4 years are his frequent golf outings (and I guarantee most of those had plenty of campaigning going on...)

[Fully Awake DAV]

Thank you! What if? Oh...the polls...yes....Personally with articles like this....I think these are Obama operatives....attempting to spread dis-information...

[Eye of Unk]

Romney should just go for broke and ask Sarah Palin to come aboard, or order one of his aides to “leak” a secret message of that intention to see what the polls do.

Obviously Condi Rice doesn’t have the activism Sarah Palin could generate.

Sure asking Sarah Palin to be the VP nominee is like adding rocket fuel to a lumbering diesel truck, but as long as the wheels stay on it will be one heck of a ride.

[Hugin]

How many of those states Obama “commands” is he over 50 percent? If he isn’t there now, he probably will lose.

[pistolpackinpapa]

What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?
______________________________________________________________

One of two things:

1. Use some of those millions in the campaign coffers to dig up all the dirt on Virgil Goode that they can, and find something really sinister in his, or a close family member’s, past. If they can’t find anything, pay someone to propagate a detestable lie on Mr. Goode, and recant after the Election by saying: “Oh, I’m sorry; I had him confused with Virgil Googenheimer whom I haven’t seen since 1987.

OR

2. The Weekend before the Election, pay a large sum of money to have someone release, to “World Net Daily” and “The Drudge Report”, a digitally manipulated picture of Virgil Goode having sex with a dog. That would turn-off the otherwise Romney supporters sending them back into the GOP Column, and it would so excite 50% of the Obama voters they’d switch over and vote for Mr. Goode, for sure.

Hey, with a lot of money, in the internet age, they can do just about anything. And, there is no politician above committing an act that most would consider some odious; shall we say?

[Road Glide]

“Utah ... up for grabs”

This is a joke..... right?

[pistolpackinpapa]

For starters: You can move New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and “possibly” Pennsylvania to the GOP Column. Piss on the pundits. After that, how is it looking for Obama? He’s trailing Romney now 231-196

[bigbob]

Your theory that putting “rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket” will help him win Colorado is a joke, right?

Oh well, it’s cheap entertainment.

[techno]

Or should Romney put on the ticket a gay moderate who is for gun control?

[JLS]

Not joke, a mistake. I meant Nevada not Utah.

[Lily4Jesus]

May the Lord grant us favor

[marygonzo]

Good analyses. He was a poor selection because he was a Rockefeller liberal-socialist and the rest in the field were actually conservatives. Now he wants baby killer Rice as VP!! You can’t make this up. Our only hope is mutiny at the convention.

[Lily4Jesus]

I’m voting for Mickey Mouse!

[PizzaDriver]

OBama could, once AGAIN, collect the Electoral Vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Last time Nebraska split it’s Electoral Vote... 4 McCain & 1 Obama.

[MissouriConservative]

Yeah, we get it. You are pimping for your boy Obama to win.

[MileHi]

Just a reality check. Jimmah Carter was up by over 12 points at the end of September in 1980. We all know how that turned out.

Agreed. Still, that was my second vote and I was enthusiastic about RR. I voted for Carter in my first because I was stupid. I can't get excited about Myth. Watch yer knot!

[Mr Apple]

a digitally manipulated picture of Virgil Goode having sex with a dog.

Techno, after reviewing your flawed logic in this thread of yours, may I advise you to review post #28 and consider trying tiddly winks while performing hop scotch on your front lawn. Obama is going to lose in a landslide!