Posted on 08/22/2012 5:29:47 AM PDT by Reaganite Republican
Thank you.
Very interesting that the poll was conducted by an outfit that works primarily for Democrats—and it’s the same organization that shows Romney with a four-point lead in Michigan. You’d think a Democratic outfit would get the sampling right for some of its most important constituencies.
Of course, there are a couple of items I can’t find in the poll. First, what was the split of Dims and Republicans? And secondly what was the percentage of seniors who voted in Florida in 2008 and 2010? Yeah, the over 60 demographic is over-sampled, but not by that much, and turnout by seniors is the highest of any voting group.
Thanks... didn’t want to throw the cold water of skepticism on this, but there’s a plethora of bogus polling out there. Just wanting to separate the real stuff from the contrived.
Who knows if these guys are out-liers or something more significant... but still, good to see
IMHO Obama is in trouble, undecideds NEVER break the incumbents’ way in bad times... NO way
BUT we need to make sure it’s not close enough to steal, eh...
Amen!
It’s good to see in that, based on their percentages of those polled, the seniors (63% in the sample??) at least seem to like Romney/Ryan. Still don’t know the D vs R breakdown, though.
Four states have been hit especially hard during the recession, particularly in regards to housing issues. They are CA, FL, NV, and AZ.
CA is a lost cause and AZ is pretty reliably GOP, but FL and NV are trending Romney.
MI and OH have lost a lot of jobs. MI is polling tighter, but OH is being stubborn. I wish we'd see more positive movement toward Romney in OH.
I think the problem is that this is a bad pro-GOP poll which is just as useless as the bad pro-Dem polls.
Amen.
Because millions of voters have only cell phones, these polls are all suspect from the outset. Add to that an over-sampling of Democrats in most polls, and their reliability is nil.
I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Romney-Ryan campaign events will turn into mass rallies.
Regardless of a likely sampling error, a big lead among seniors is great news and indicates voter awareness of the issues.
I do think Romney is ahead one or two in FL, and that it will be a solid three by election day. But not 13 . . . although one can dream.
The NBC/WSJ oversampled Dems by 5% points. Sooner or later reality is going to hit them.
I am not sure about this poll, but once people realize that Ryan really don’t want to push grandma off the cliff they will come around.
“The NBC/WSJ oversampled Dems by 5% points. Sooner or later reality is going to hit them.”
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True fact- the timing of that would depend on how much they value their credibility going forward
And if true the correct reaction from the Obama Campaign is to send Joe Biden to Tampa...NOT!!!
During the Demwit primary season of 1960, JFK (on the campaign trail) was asked by a reporter what he would do to dispel the idea that a Roman Catholic couldn’t be elected. “We’re going to [LNIV] well take Ohio, for starters!” That didn’t get quoted in the papers and other media, of course. Thanks Reaganite Republican.
Cheers!
Over 60% seniors in that poll? It’s nonsense then, Florida is not just a giant retirement home. Silver’s altered # of a 7% lead is believable and great.
Of note though is the margin of difference in the Senate race. Nelson is 3 points ahead of Obama and Mack 3 points behind Romney.
As of today Real Clear Politics gives Florida to Romney in their “No Toss Ups” Electoral Map.
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