Ryan Bounce in FULL EFFECT as Poll has Romney Soaring to 14-Point Lead In Battleground-State Florida

Reaganite Republican ^ | August 22, 2012 | Reaganite Republican

[Reaganite Republican]

As predicted here, the Romney campaign has not only pulled-ahead nationally following the selection of Paul Ryan as his running-mate, but has now leaped to a double-digit lead in Florida (54-40%) according to Foster-McCollum-White, a Michigan-based pollster- the margin for error is 2.53%.

Although highly reliable Rasmussen has Romney up by only two in this week's Florida poll of likely voters, the FMW's astonishing numbers may suggest a trend of some magnitude has already begun. Earlier polling had found that the numerous senior-citizens of the Sunshine State were -regardless of 'progressive' drivel to the contrary- far more terrified of Obamacare than anything the habitually-dishonest Obama campaign claims Ryan is going to do to them... and thus, today's numbers.

In fact, picking Paul Ryan might turn-out to be one of the best decisions Willard ever made, as it seems that much of the TEA Party movement is responding quite positively to his grand gesture towards the GOP's (vigilant) right.

Yet the Romney 14-point lead in Florida may only be the beginning of something big and powerful that's been unleashed... a long-suppressed backlash in this country against the incompetent, nefarious, and given-way-too-many-mulligans Obama Administration.

With even the youth vote starting to go against him, you have to wonder if there will be enough residual voters impressed with Obama's 'cool' neckties and Ludacris CD's to put him over the top this time... doesn't look like it.

And consider this: maybe Romney isn't a principled conservative, but he's apparently smart/pragmatic enough to see that this is what the times -and electorate- are calling for. 

With a history of bucking, weaving, waffling, and flip-flopping on conservative issues -based on which way the political winds were blowing- it's been difficult for conservatives to trust him on repealing Obamacare, spending, and constitutional issues... myself surely included.

After being pushed to the right in the primaries and now TEA Party hero Paul Ryan at his side, who's to say Mitt's conservative make-over of recent years will lack permanence... rather, he'll likely be bringing what the market demands. Most Bain-managed businesses were in the retail sector, you know... that's just the way the guy thinks, 'give 'em what they want'. That, and
hire good salesmen... which is exactly what he did last week.

It seems that Romney also concluded that with only 5% or so undecideds to fight over, he's better served by reaching out to the GOP base- and did he ever when he chose Ryan for VP.

While it's far from certain that Mitt Romney has given up on statism forever, we can only hope- but big-government solutions and wasteful spending wouldn't benefit Romney politically in the near-to-medium term, imho. 

I now believe that Mittens WILL repeal Obamacare, and that
Rep Paul Ryan could be president in 2016 or 2020: overall, things are suddenly looking up for conservatives after what felt like a disappointing primary season...

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Rasmussen   ABC-News (Australia)   Facebook   Peace and Freedom

[wiggen]

Thank you.

[ExNewsExSpook]

Very interesting that the poll was conducted by an outfit that works primarily for Democrats—and it’s the same organization that shows Romney with a four-point lead in Michigan. You’d think a Democratic outfit would get the sampling right for some of its most important constituencies.

Of course, there are a couple of items I can’t find in the poll. First, what was the split of Dims and Republicans? And secondly what was the percentage of seniors who voted in Florida in 2008 and 2010? Yeah, the over 60 demographic is over-sampled, but not by that much, and turnout by seniors is the highest of any voting group.

[ScottinVA]

Thanks... didn’t want to throw the cold water of skepticism on this, but there’s a plethora of bogus polling out there. Just wanting to separate the real stuff from the contrived.

[Reaganite Republican]

Who knows if these guys are out-liers or something more significant... but still, good to see

IMHO Obama is in trouble, undecideds NEVER break the incumbents’ way in bad times... NO way

BUT we need to make sure it’s not close enough to steal, eh...

[Puppage]

Dear Lord, let this be true!!!!

Amen!

[ScottinVA]

It’s good to see in that, based on their percentages of those polled, the seniors (63% in the sample??) at least seem to like Romney/Ryan. Still don’t know the D vs R breakdown, though.

[randita]

Silver does a fair analysis. Applying his "special sauce" to the poll, he acknowledges that Romney would have something like a 7 point lead in FL.

Four states have been hit especially hard during the recession, particularly in regards to housing issues. They are CA, FL, NV, and AZ.

CA is a lost cause and AZ is pretty reliably GOP, but FL and NV are trending Romney.

MI and OH have lost a lot of jobs. MI is polling tighter, but OH is being stubborn. I wish we'd see more positive movement toward Romney in OH.

[babble-on]

I think the problem is that this is a bad pro-GOP poll which is just as useless as the bad pro-Dem polls.

[Brian Kopp DPM]

Amen.

[txrefugee]

Because millions of voters have only cell phones, these polls are all suspect from the outset. Add to that an over-sampling of Democrats in most polls, and their reliability is nil.

[calico_thompson]

I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Romney-Ryan campaign events will turn into mass rallies.

Regardless of a likely sampling error, a big lead among seniors is great news and indicates voter awareness of the issues.

[LS]

This is an outlier, no different than that 11-point lead that Quinnipiac produced some time ago.

I do think Romney is ahead one or two in FL, and that it will be a solid three by election day. But not 13 . . . although one can dream.

[erod]

The NBC/WSJ oversampled Dems by 5% points. Sooner or later reality is going to hit them.

[verga]

I am not sure about this poll, but once people realize that Ryan really don’t want to push grandma off the cliff they will come around.

[Reaganite Republican]

“The NBC/WSJ oversampled Dems by 5% points. Sooner or later reality is going to hit them.”

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True fact- the timing of that would depend on how much they value their credibility going forward

[Hotlanta Mike]

And if true the correct reaction from the Obama Campaign is to send Joe Biden to Tampa...NOT!!!

[SunkenCiv]

During the Demwit primary season of 1960, JFK (on the campaign trail) was asked by a reporter what he would do to dispel the idea that a Roman Catholic couldn’t be elected. “We’re going to [LNIV] well take Ohio, for starters!” That didn’t get quoted in the papers and other media, of course. Thanks Reaganite Republican.

[grey_whiskers]

What is [LINV] please? It doesn't belong among any of the acronyms I know...

Cheers!

[Impy]

Over 60% seniors in that poll? It’s nonsense then, Florida is not just a giant retirement home. Silver’s altered # of a 7% lead is believable and great.

Of note though is the margin of difference in the Senate race. Nelson is 3 points ahead of Obama and Mack 3 points behind Romney.

[dervish]

As of today Real Clear Politics gives Florida to Romney in their “No Toss Ups” Electoral Map.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html