Posted on 08/26/2012 7:28:00 AM PDT by LD Jackson
Would anyone disagree with me that there is a vacuum in the political media coverage we are now seeing? A vacuum that draws in nearly every story the media covers? There seems to be one, all-important race that the media is centered on, ie. the contest to see who will be the GOP nominee, the person who will face Barack Obama in the general election. Most certainly, that race is very important and one we all should consider our options carefully. However, the presidential election is not the only horse race in town. There is another race, although it may not be receiving the media coverage which it deserves, a race that could very well help determine the direction of our government for some years to come.
Remember, we have more than one branch of government. Mr. President reigns over the Executive Branch, there is the Judicial Branch, and then there is the branch of government that seems to be habitually deadlocked, unable to reach a consensus, always haggling back and forth, etc. That would be the Legislative Branch, ie. Congress. The House of Representatives and the United States Senate. You know them well, the branch of government that usually has the lowest approval ratings of any of the three branches of our government.
Did you realize that of the 100 members of the Senate, 33 of them are up for reelection in 2012? Of those 33, 23 of them are Democrats, which includes 2 independents who normally vote with the Democrats. I haven't had time to do the research and find out how many of these Democrats could be in danger of losing to a Republican. One would think, given the possibility of a GOP majority in the Senate, the Republican establishment would be doing everything they can to identify and defeat those Democrats who are vulnerable. I hope they are doing that, as it should be very high on their list of priorities.
Moving on to the House of Representatives, the numbers are even more staggering. That esteemed body of legislators is made up of 435 members, with the Republicans holding a 242 to 193 majority. Now consider this. In November 2012, all 435 of those members will be up for reelection. Hopefully, the Republicans will be able to build on their majority and make it stronger, but who knows how it will turn out. Again, I have not done the research to find out how many Democrats may be vulnerable, but it will be a contest, to be sure.
I can not stress how important I feel this election is. Consider this. What happens if Barack Obama defeats the Republican nominee? Be it Mitt Romney or Herman Cain, Rick Santorum or Rick Perry, what happens if we are unable to defeat Obama? I have been convinced that America can not withstand another four years of Barack Obama. I feel he is doing a great deal of harm to our country. What if he does win reelection, yet the Republicans are able to keep and possibly build on their majority in the House, and defeat enough Democrats to gain a majority in the Senate? Would that not give us the leverage to keep Obama in check? Would that not allow us to scale back the wholesale changes he and his liberal friends are trying to implement in America?
Now to my friends and compadres in the blogsphere who have been so worried about the possibility of Mitt Romney or some other faux conservative winning the nomination. Many of us, myself included, have written and worried that there would be little difference between Romney and Obama, but consider this. What if we are able to keep and build upon our majority in the House and gain a majority in the Senate? Would that not go a very long way towards moulding a Romney presidency? Even though he may not be our perfect candidate, would we not be able to use that majority to shape his administration and his priorities? That's why I feel the 2012 congressional elections are so important.
Having written all of the 700 plus words in this post, this is what I want you to take away with you, to ponder on in these times. Do your research and find out who is running for Congress in your district. Find a good conservative candidate to support and do your best to help him or her win their election. Help build the GOP majority in Congress by sending real conservatives to Washington. Real people who care about turning America away from the path she is on and back towards a path that is more in line with our Founding Fathers and the Constitution. That's the real reason the 2012 congressional elections may very well be more important than who moves into the White House in 2013.
Well I've posted my version of the Senate Races at KeyHouseRaces.com . The House races look pretty stable this year so we're focused on the Senate.
Here's what it looks like as of 23 August:
The "Experts" for the 2012 Senate races are:
Roll Call (formerly CQ Poliltics)
Election Projection (our most accurate forecaster for the 2010 House election)
The Rothenberg Political Report
I dropped the Cook Report (subscription site) and Real Clear Politics (too much GOP bias) from our stable of 6 "Experts" from 2010.
It should be noted that: I have lumped in Rothenberg's Toss-Up Leaning R and D with the Leans R and Leans D categories. In 2010 I lumped both in with Toss-Up. So this is a slight change from the previous methodology.
The Missouri ratings are Pre-Akin so we are in trouble there and a GOP Senate Majority looks to be at risk.
The chart lists the 19 Senate Races in order of their average ranking by the 4 "Experts". So the most likely GOP win is NEBRASKA and the most likey DEM win is NEW JERSEY. Pink and Red are good. Light Blue to Dark Blue show the races that are likely to be DEM wins. As the polling improves the rankings and the colors will, hopefully, show improvement in the GOP prospects. That's what happened in 2010.
If you want to help make sure that we win the Senate, just click on one or more of the Candidate Website Links in the Republican column and volunteer time or money. It's going to take a big effort to reverse 4 years of Obama, Reid and Pelosi.
| State | Republican | Seat | Average | Avg. | Sabato | Roll Call | EP.com | Rothenberg | State |
| Nebraska | Debra Fischer | Open D | Likely R | 2.25 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Nebraska |
| Arizona | August 28 Primary | Open R | Leans R | 1.25 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Arizona |
| North Dakota | Rick Berg | Open D | Leans R | 1.25 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | North Dakota |
| Indiana | Richard Mourdock | Open R | Leans R | 1.00 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Leans R | Indiana |
| Missouri | Todd Akin | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.75 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans R | Missouri |
| Nevada | Dean Heller | Incumbent R | Leans R | 0.75 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Nevada |
| Wisconsin | Tommy Thompson | Open D | Leans R | 0.75 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Wisconsin |
| Montana | Denny Rehberg | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.25 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Montana |
| Massachusetts | Scott Brown | Incumbent R | Toss-Up | -0.25 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Massachusetts |
| Virginia | George Allen | Open D | Toss-Up | -0.25 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Virginia |
| Florida | Connie Mack | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.00 | Toss-Up | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Florida |
| New Mexico | Heather Wilson | Open D | Leans D | -1.00 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Mod D | Leans D | New Mexico |
| Hawaii | Linda Lingle | Open D | Leans D | -1.50 | Leans D | Leans D | Safe D | Leans D | Hawaii |
| Ohio | Josh Mandel | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.50 | Leans D | Leans D | Safe D | Leans D | Ohio |
| Connecticut | Linda McMahon | Open D | Likely D | -2.00 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Connecticut |
| Maine | Charles Summers | Open R | Likely I | -2.25 | Likely I | Likely I | Safe I | Likely I | Maine |
| Michigan | Peter Hoekstra | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.25 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Michigan |
| Pennsylvania | Tom Smith | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.50 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Pennsylvania |
| New Jersey | Joseph Kyrillos | Incumbent D | Safe D | -2.75 | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | New Jersey |
| 23-Aug-12 | All | Sabato | Roll Call | EP.com | Rothenberg | State | |||
| Average | -0.474 | -0.316 | -0.474 | -0.579 | -0.526 | ||||
| Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans D | Leans D | ||||||
Thank you thank you.
Just 20 more Tea party type conservatives in the House would have blocked 90% of the RINO/Dem bills that were passed for Obama last session.
40+ would give us effective control.
Of course the primaries were where one could have the most impact.
There one could replace a ‘pretty good’ conservative like Cliff Stearns with a ‘great conservative’ like Ted Yoho.
Can’t get enough of Ted Yoho’s wonderful ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkVG1StqOzQ
the key...is to Tea Party the state legislatures and governors....the Feds will come around as that happens. that’s where Sarah is.
That’s neccessary and cheaper- at least for elections of representatives. It’s also the source and training ground for future great leaders.
But the House is at a tipping point this election. The benefit from even a small increase there are greatly magnified.
And something about Governor and Senate races- the liberal national media can hugely affect those. House and legislative races not very much.
They learned their lesson in 2008 and are well aware of the Tea Party ‘danger’ this time.
The national media will find some ‘welfare bums’ type comment from a Tea Party candidate and try to smear the whole group with it for days. They’re just waiting until closer to the election so it’ll have more effect.
It won’t work too well against House and local candidates though, people know them.
I think you are right about not enough attention being given to the Senate and House races. My recommendation: Repost this thread periodically - we need to wake people up. In particular, taking control of the Senate is anything but assured at this point.
BTTT...
(and I meant 2010 above)
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