it’s close because the media wants it close
Part 2: Entitlements
Part 3: Entitlements
The fact that Romney is petty much everyone’s last choice candidate couldn’t possibly have anything to do with it./s
The response rate has gotten so low that the reported differences in popularity have become meaningless. The main source of error is almost surely no longer due to random sampling error but rather to the unknown distribution of opinion in the unsampled part of the population that declines to respond. Let me know if you need a reference for that.
I have read it is not uncommon for up to 40 of the sampled refusing to cooperate.
Most polls are rigged to get the answer the pollster wants...
Years ago a pollster called me up asked could i spare 10 mins for 10 questions and maybe a couple of follow ups, i said sure first question was am i voter ,what was my age and then she asked my stance on abortion after i told her she said “thank you for your time” and hung up.
I did not give her the right answers that why the phone call ended on the third Question.
I know 3 on food stamps that are NOT voting for o. i will be driving two of them to the polls. they know that those desparately needing them will lose them when this deck of cards falls.
But the Powerline boys tend to be doomsters [IMO] and they are basing their opinion on polls of registered voters and Democrat-skewed polls of likely voters.
I'm not Pollyanna -- I don't think this election is sewn up by any means. But it's too early to hang crepe, too.
It’s close because Romney is listening to his campaign manager who is not very conservative and is telling Romney to stick to jobs and the economy and not to go after Obama on ideology.
Above all else, this election is about ideology, about God given rights, about the constitution and checks and balances. If there are no God given rights, all rights come from the state and the state is supreme, no more, “We the People” because the state controls the election rules, no more checks and balances because the state is always right, and no more private property rights.
Sadly this country is a cowering lot who want to be assured that government will take care of them when they falter. They are pro-freebies, jealous of the successful, averse to responsibility and amoral. The country is lost because it’s so easy to be a democrat.
The Romney campaign needs to adapt to day to day events.
The new Democrat/Media narrative focuses on Bill Clinton. It goes like this........
“Y’all love Bill Clinton, right? Well Clinton said Obama has done the best he could with the mess he inherited. He said that even HE couldn’t have done a better job in 4 years. So c’mon, we MUST give the Black man the benefit of the doubt. WE MUST. WE MUST, WE MUST”.
Romney could easily turn this around and use Clinton as a weapon against Obama by saying this......
“Obama ran as a Clinton-esque Centrist in 2008. Well the American people wanted Obama to focus all his energy on fixing the economy. But there was one problem with that: the Democrats had a rare political opportunity to nationalize our health care system, since they controlled all 3 branches of government, with a super majority in the Senate. The American people said ‘fix the economy first, then worry about health care’. A Centrist would have listened to the will of the people. When Bill Clinton tried to pass a health care bill the economy was in much better shape in the early 90s than it was when Obama took office. But the American people still didn’t like his health care bill. So what did Bill Clinton do? He listened to the American people and scrapped his health care bill. And if Bill Clinton had been elected in 2008, he would have listened to the American people then too. Obama chose his Liberal ideology over listening to the American people in a time of economic crisis. He’s no Bill Clinton, and he’s no Centrist. And if Bill Clinton tries to tell you otherwise, just remember that for all his positives, Bill Clinton sometimes has a problem with telling the truth”.
Seems pretty simple to me. Yet I have the sinking feeling that it would never occur to a whole room full of so called political experts working for Romney to come up with a response like this.
A lot of people will say that they are voting for Obama for the simple fact that they don’t want to be seen as being racist. When they reach the voting booth, however, they will vote Republican.
Because both major candidates are utterly horrible?
Other than that I can’t think of a thing.
I’d run an ad with an unhappy looking black woman sitting in government housing eating mac and cheese and watching ELLEN......no car....no job.....no future......here’s what the Democrats think is good enough for you. Then, the set breaks apart to show a nice home....a nice car.....meals at a nice restaurant.....a fulfilling private sector job with a future.....this is what the Republicans want you to have.....see the difference.
This election is NOT going to be close. Barring some fiasco in the debates, that I do NOT expect.. Obama is going to lose... by a pretty large margin, in the electoral college.
Telephone polling has become unreliable, even when it’s done well. Most marketing firms report that LESS than 15% of people called agree to participate... and, who do you think these people are? Folks that are a) not so bright, and b) not so busy.
They simply are no longer representative.
The economy sucks... people are hurting.. and, when they are, they Vote for CHANGE! Last time, that helped Obama... this time, it curses him.
I don’t understand the logic behind the argument that “people tell pollsters that they like Obama because they don’t want to be thought of as racist”. Why would someone care what a stranger over the phone thinks about them? Is the pollster going to call up their neighbors and say “guess what, that guy living down the block from you in the green house doesn’t like Obama, he may be a racist”?
If a pollster called me, I’d have no problem being as sarcastic as possible and saying “I’m voting for the White guy, White Power, yeah!” Maybe I’m just a lot more nervy than most people. But it still seems far fetched to me that someone would care about what a pollster, who is getting paid to do a boring job and call people all day, would think of them.
This election is NOT going to be close. Barring some fiasco in the debates, that I do NOT expect.. Obama is going to lose... by a pretty large margin, in the electoral college.
Telephone polling has become unreliable, even when it’s done well. Most marketing firms report that LESS than 15% of people called agree to participate... and, who do you think these people are? Folks that are a) not so bright, and b) not so busy.
They simply are no longer representative.
The economy sucks... people are hurting.. and, when they are, they Vote for CHANGE! Last time, that helped Obama... this time, it curses him.
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If America only knew.....
(And if somebody doesn’t REALLY expose the Marxist/Muslim sob to the American people, we will lose again.)
The best Obama exposure site on the net:
(by our own FReeper, Beckwith)
The Obama File
http://theobamafile.com/
The United States Library of Congress has selected
TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collection
of Internet materials
http://theobamafile.com/LibraryOfCongress.html
Just a few pages from the massive file:
http://theobamafile.com/index_next_politics.html
http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_personal.html
http://www.theobamafile.com/BarackObama.htm
http://www.theobamafile.com/_family/FamilyPage.htm
http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaEducation.htm
http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaPsychology.htm
http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaReligion.htm
http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaWife.htm
http://www.theobamafile.com/_associates/ObamaAssociates.htm
http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaIconography.htm
.
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___________________
2012 is an important year to remember 9/11 because our younger generations are the most in danger of forgetting what really happened.
Or worse, our younger generations are susceptible to getting a politically correct view of 9/11. Many on the Left have tried to turn 9/11 into a “day of national service” or a celebration of tolerance, instead of remembering that radical jihad attacked this nation because of our western values.
Watch this moving tribute to the heroes of 9/11
composed by a man who lived through it:
(music by Enya)
http://www.frugalsites.net/911/attack/
It is the most viewed video of all,
and is now in the Smithsonian.
.
.
I don't believe that's what the vast majority of citizens want.
“The main source of error is almost surely no longer due to random sampling error but rather to the unknown distribution of opinion in the unsampled part of the population that declines to respond”
Sampling error assumes that the population gives truthful answers to questions presented.
Personally, I always give the wrong answers, or alternately my opinion, or the opposite of my opinion in the same series of questions.
Statistically, this means that the error is far greater than the mere statistical variation calculation. The poor slobs that call me up, no longer get a hangup. I deliberately screw up their poll.
I can’t remember exactly, but a poll of 1000 people results in a variation of 3% or so - if everyone answers truthfully.
It is skewed when people refuse to answer....but when they deliberately and randomly give wrong answers.....then all bets are off. Error is incalculable, and conclusions are truly meaningless.
It’s the least I can do when I get an unsolicited call.
Try it....it’s fun!
Why is this election close? My response would be, is it really? The MSM would have us believe that Obama will break all historical trends from the past 65 years and be re-elected, even while governing over a multi-year cruddy economy. Americans have never stood for this kind of incompetence before, but suddenly we’re willing and able? I just don’t buy it.
I sound like a broken record, but I’ve been saying since August 1st that what we saw nationwide on Chick-fil-A day is what’s headed Obama’s way in November.