If Israel attacks Iran, what effect on election 2012?

self published, exclusive to FR | September 21, 2012 | Peter O'Donnell

[Viennacon]

This is true. I think it would all depend on Obama’s reaction.
The problem for him would be that not supporting Israel would anger a large amount of Jews and really mobilize conservatives. If he did support them and went to war with Iran, his base might turn on him.

Here’s an interesting observation.

Obama is not the beneficiary of the blue-dog Democrats. He has marginalized them and expanded his far left base. I think we can all agree that there is a much higher percentage of far-left loons in the Democrat base than ever before. These are the anti-war, anti-Israel, pro-Islam nutjobs. If there was a war, this could really come back to bite him. They would see it as a betrayal of far left principles and would be bitter about voting for him, meanwhile, we conservatives are still pi$$ed because he’s a socialist usurper.

It may sound optimistic, but this might be a time when the “rally around the flag” effect doesn’t work. It didn’t work for Chamberlain (who, like Obama, caused conflict through appeasement). When the allies retreated from Norway, the politicians and the people of Britain abandoned him and lost faith in his leadership.

[RitchieAprile]

We already know Ambassador Stevens was a Muslim, and gay.

we know this how?

[American Constitutionalist]

" That may be precisely why Obama asks the Saudis and the Muslim Brotherhood to start a war before the election. I don't think for a second that Obama would not do this. "

Exactly..... BINGO !!

Perhaps ? that's what we saw what happened last week in the middle east but they flubbed it up big time.... or cause a Gulf of Tonkin incident ?

[beethovenfan]

Or in this case, “don’t leave your horse’s ass in the middle of a stream”.

[Ancesthntr]

An EMP strike over several of Iran’s nuke production sites, Teheran and some key military bases would pretty much destroy both their nuke program and the regime at the same time. Even using nukes to do this, not one window would be broken, but the means exists to do it without nukes. It is the ultimate in assymetrical warfare, and is just far enough outside the box for it to be considered a realistic choice (especially given the do-or-die stakes for Israel).

[dalebert]

I dont think anyone cares..

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

It will have been attacked on Obama’s watch. Period.

[NoGrayZone]

I have been pondering this for the past couple of weeks. Now, just my HO, but I don’t think Bibi will strike until the usurper is out of office.

He knows he will get NO support from the US if he does so, perhaps he knows barry will help those trying to destroy Israel.

Once we win this, and come January, when Romney is sworn in, the strike will happen....because Bibi knows Romney will have his back.

Again, just my HO....but Bibi and Mitt go way back. Pretty sure the plan is set.

[meatloaf]

That’s not going to happen. Read about the Basiji and how children were used to clear minefields and later used to stop the student revolution.

http://www.matthiaskuentzel.de/contents/ahmadinejads-world

[ozdragon]

If Romney wins the Israleis have the US as an allie.
If Obama wins the Israelis don’t have support.
So the Israelis will not strike before the election.
If the Israelis must strike it will be by stealth, using assets already in Iran to sabotage the nuclear facilities.

[meatloaf]

I hink you’re right on the money.

[wtd]

"Sponsor regime change and take over the country from the inside via surrogates.

Kinda like Carter did with the Shah?

Or Obama did with Mubarak?

Or Hillary did with Qaddafi?

Point well made.

[tentmaker]

Israel will attack Iran next week, probably on Tuesday or Wednesday, while Ahmadinejad is still in NY at the UN, but before Netanyahu is scheduled to arrive. (during Yom Kippur)

Israels hand is being forced by the progress that Iran has made in producing low enriched uranium. They already have over 200 kg of 20% UF6 and that's enough to disperse it to various locations making it much more difficult to destroy, while they finish enriching it to weapons grade.

Israel needs to attack soon, while it can be most effective and they can't count on US support from Obama. They either go now or risk Obama winning re-election or have to wait until next year if Romney wins. The waiting scenarios are not good, either way.

Attacking now offers the element of surprise, with Netanyahu scheduled to be in NY at the UN, Ahmadinejad out of the country and the Jewish holidays. A bonus would be that Ahmadinejad would immediately fly home, putting him in hostile air space at a time when the Israelis can predict where he'll be and make him a target.

Using a nuclear bomb detonated at high altitude over Iran would provide a crippling EMP (ElectroMagnetic Pulse) strike against Irans infrastructure without the negative stigma of the radiation effects of using nukes. Once the electric grid is down, and most of the Iranian defenses, taking out the nuclear development sites becomes much easier.

Israel can cripple the Iranian economy, set back their nuclear program by ten years and destroy most of their military capability and it can be accomplished in 2-3 days.

This is just my personal theory, based on open source knowledge and common sense. It goes without saying that it could be wrong. We'll know in a few days.

p.s. Obama loses more face in foreign policy

[Louis Foxwell]

Obama understands that a resolution of the conflict between Israel and Iran is the key to his reelection. Regime change in Iran is key to this solution.
Obama has the support of the Brotherhood to bring about this change. If he takes his cue from Bush who created a coalition of the willing to bring down Hussein he will be able to end the chaos in the region vis a vis the Ayatollah. He has already cemented his relationship with the Brotherhood. He can finesse Israel out of the picture by supporting the creation of a new Muslim regime in Iran headed up by the Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood will move against the Ayatollah if they believe Israel has the ability to return Iran to a democracy.
We may yet see evil genius at work.

[Bernard Marx]

I think Netanyahu played a big card today, going out of his way to assure Obama he wouldn't interfere to help Romney win. That signals to me he's playing both ends against the middle and will wait until after the election to attack unless there's an unforeseen crisis. He doesn't want to alienate Obama in case he's reelected.

If and when Israel attacks things could get very sticky very fast. It depends on U.S. actions and how they're countered by Iranian nuclear-armed surrogates like Russia, Pakistan, North Korea and China.

If there's a big blow-up threatening Israel's existence I have no doubt Israel will go nuclear. What will it have to lose? But it'll be crisis time for the entire world. It's deja vu 1938. I feel the world is at a critical tipping-point.

[pie_eater]

Gas price, gas price, gas price.

Any conflict will shoot the gas price up, and that’s a tax on everyone who drives a vehicle, flies in planes, or buys things at stores. No matter who Obama tries to blame, people will pin it on him.

So any conflict will hurt Obama.

[pie_eater]

Gas price, gas price, gas price.

Any conflict will shoot the gas price up, and that’s a tax on everyone who drives a vehicle, flies in planes, or buys things at stores. No matter who Obama tries to blame, people will pin it on him.

So any conflict will hurt Obama.

[Jumper]

One effect would be that all QE Stock gains would be temporarily wiped out with a huge stock market drop in valuations across the board. Recent history shows that in 1990 when the US started DESERT SHIELD the markets dropped about 40%, and did not rebound until DESERT STORM at which time it settled up about 12% over the deployment start. The same thing happened for Gulf War II; this is because of the uncertainity of OIL and other fallout.

So a war with Iran would provide short term buying/selling opportunities - say you have OIL and GOLD stocks at the onset of hostilities and you sell higher on fears, then go into commodities that have dropped and ride them up when everything returns to normal.

At that point, if you understand what you are investing in you could turn 50-60% profits (IRAs would be best).

[Boogieman]

Yes, I think you are correct on pretty much all of that. If Obama has some big “counterstrike” planned on the “terrorists” (or their baby formula factory) right before the election, we’ll pretty much have confirmation that he arranged this with his muslim buddies as political theatre.