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If Israel attacks Iran, what effect on election 2012?
self published, exclusive to FR | September 21, 2012 | Peter O'Donnell

Posted on 09/21/2012 5:28:04 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell

What happens to the presidential election if Israel attacks Iran, and/or if Syria boils over into war between Syria and Israel?

Obama has signalled that he is at most cool to the idea of a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the election. Romney has indicated strong approval.

Here's how I think it plays out ... how about you?

If Israel concludes a successful strike and there is not very much immediate follow-up from Iran or surrogates, before election day, then I think it tends to have zero effect on the election outcome.

If the aftermath of an Israeli strike is chaotic, with major Iranian counter-attacks, some on U.S. targets, then Obama would look weak if he did not respond with greater force, but might be able to cash in on the opportunity if he does in fact permit major counter-strikes. So in that case, the effect on the election depends on Obama's response.

If on the other hand the aftermath is worse than chaotic, let's say another event on the scale of 9-11 or massive attacks on Israel, then the election could be plunged into chaose with the economy shoved off stage as the number one issue, and possibly even something like a state of emergency being declared.

Conspiracy theories would start to circulate about who did what and for what reason.

So, what is Netanyahu likely to be thinking? If I were him, I might be tempted to wait and see if Romney wins before launching this long-expected strike. The lateness in terms of good flying weather is a concern although much of this would be done entirely by high-tech systems not requiring visual sightings. The strategic balance is shifting with every month that Iran can use to develop its weapons, but two months might not be a fatal delay.

The big unknown is Syria. Netanyahu has to factor in how events would likely unfold in Syria if there were an attack on Iran. Would that prompt Iran to meddle more directly? Would there be an attack on a nation-state level or would it remain at the Hezbollah-Hamas level?

Both candidates for president must be nervous about this situation. It could help one and hurt the other. But it would introduce a new question not yet being asked very much, who would you rather have in the White House in this developing situation? I'm not an American resident but I get the sense that Obama's support on foreign policy is vulnerable after Libya and unrest in Egypt, and that apologizing on state media in Pakistan will only seem presidential to a few of his most ardent supporters.

I am very concerned for the safety of Israel in this growing climate of anarchy and unrest spreading around the region, and the image comes forth of Nero fiddling while Rome (or Damascus) burns. Add to that any sort of attack on Iran, and the uncertainty grows exponentially.


TOPICS: Conspiracy; History; Military/Veterans; Politics
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1 posted on 09/21/2012 5:28:06 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell
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To: Peter ODonnell

I’ll suggest there’s one possibility you hadn’t considered: Active betrayal and interference by the US military, directed by Obama. This is less likely before the election (Jews would go nuts) than after, when there is more “flexibility.”

I’m not saying it’s the highest probability prospect. I just wanted to toss it onto your menu.


2 posted on 09/21/2012 5:31:25 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: Peter ODonnell
( If Israel attacks Iran, what effect on election 2012? )


Realistically, after what happened last week in Egypt and Libya the spotlight will be on how Obama's, the State Department's foreign policy is a utter chaotic failure ( cluster flop )...
They won't be able to cause this utter failure to be sweep under the carpet.
Israel attacking Iran would once again show how much they are incompetent, that's why they want Israel to wait until after the election to strike Iran.
3 posted on 09/21/2012 5:33:40 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: Peter ODonnell

There won’t be an attack nor should there be. Neither attack or do nothing are acceptable options. Newt Gingrich has had the right idea all along. Sponsor regime change and take over the country from the inside via surrogates.


4 posted on 09/21/2012 5:34:30 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: Peter ODonnell
Although I'm no expert on such matters I can't help but think that an attack before the election would help Osama Obama by giving him the opportunity to play the role of “Wartime Commander In Chief”.If,by chance,I'm correct my hunch is it would cause Israel to hold off until after 11/6 because their government knows that Osama Obama is *not* their friend.
5 posted on 09/21/2012 5:35:17 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (If Obama's Reelected Imagine The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: Peter ODonnell

A crisis usually helps the incumbent sort of like “don’t swap horses in the middle of a stream.

I am not sure if it would work that way this time tho.


6 posted on 09/21/2012 5:35:31 PM PDT by yarddog
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To: Peter ODonnell

If they hit Iran, and there was no big mess, then Romney could make a few points by going out and saying he supported their move, and making Obama look foolish, but yeah probably not a big effect. Obama would only really get a boost if we got pulled into a war situation where people were less willing to hand the reins over to a new president.

The thing for Netanyahu is, he doesn’t lose much by waiting a couple months to see what happens over here, but if Romney wins, he potentially gains a huge ally to back his play. Unless he absolutely has to pull the trigger, he is not going to do it before the election, with so much to gain.


7 posted on 09/21/2012 5:36:04 PM PDT by Boogieman
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To: plain talk

no attack could succeed at taking down the industrial base
without US heavy strategic assets. even a successful attack
would result in chaos in the gold and oil markets.

best option is what mr newt suggested combined with asymmetric activities.

but best it happen soon.


8 posted on 09/21/2012 5:42:00 PM PDT by RitchieAprile (my French needs no pardoning..)
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To: plain talk

Pretty much what the left has been doing in our own country.


9 posted on 09/21/2012 5:42:33 PM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: Peter ODonnell
Before what happened last week in the middle east, I would say, yes, it would, might have helped Obama's re-election chances, but now ? all bets are off.....
People, even traditional Democrats ( not his hard core supporters ) in their sub-conscience know that they would rather have Romney at the helm than Obama in a major crises at this point in the game.
10 posted on 09/21/2012 5:42:40 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: plain talk
Sponsor regime change and take over the country from the inside via surrogates.

Kinda like Carter did with the Shah?

Or Obama did with Mubarak?

Or Hillary did with Qaddafi?

11 posted on 09/21/2012 5:43:07 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: Peter ODonnell

Obama will declare martial law, suspend the elections, and shut off the internet in the ‘threat’ of terrorist activities online directed at the usa


12 posted on 09/21/2012 5:44:52 PM PDT by RaceBannon (When Chuck Norris goes to bed, he checks under it for Clint Eastwood!)
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To: Navy Patriot

uh ... no


13 posted on 09/21/2012 5:44:52 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: Peter ODonnell

It’s wag the dog with Obama attacking Iran with Israel to create an international crisis increasing his popularity and declaring martial law.


14 posted on 09/21/2012 5:45:46 PM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: Boogieman

Yeah, but Obama could use a excuse or create a Gulf of Tonkin incident to push us into a war with Iran if he see’s a opportunity to improve his polls numbers if he see’s Benjamen Netanyahu taking no action against Iran until AFTER the election.


15 posted on 09/21/2012 5:48:26 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: RitchieAprile

It has to be done from the inside. actually there is no other way. The facilities are miles underground beneath mountains of rock. You can’t take them out without nukes and even then how would you know what you took out without sending in teams to see what remains? Plus Iran would just restart the program later.


16 posted on 09/21/2012 5:49:45 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: Boogieman
Unless he absolutely has to pull the trigger, he is not going to do it before the election, with so much to gain.

That may be precisely why Obama asks the Saudis and the Muslim Brotherhood to start a war before the election. I don't think for a second that Obama would not do this.

We are in surreal territory here. The situation our nation finds itself in today would be utterly unthinkable five, ten, twenty, or thirty years ago. Because of Obama, our nation is on the side of the villains of this world against God and Israel.

Here are some ugly points that the media will never, ever, never acknowledge:

1. Obama hates Israel with a passion - and I believe his hatred is Satanic in nature

2. Obama owes his Harvard education to the Saudis. They got him in (even though he probably didn't have an undergraduate degree) and the Saudis rewarded Harvard with a $20,000,000 "gift." Obama owes them, and it shows.

3. Obama is in collusion with the Muslim Brotherhood. We already know Ambassador Stevens was a Muslim, and gay. Why would Obama appoint a gay Muslim to such a sensitive position? Because all signs point to Obama being a gay Muslim himself.

4. Rep Bachman hit pay dirt in her criticism of Huma Abedin, and her ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. That is why the Democrats, RINOs, and media went ape crazy.

17 posted on 09/21/2012 5:51:02 PM PDT by SkyPilot
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To: RaceBannon
" Obama will declare martial law, suspend the elections, and shut off the internet in the ‘threat’ of terrorist activities online directed at the usa "

Yes, he could, but after looking at what happened last week in the middle east ?

In the process of implementing this ? once again they would flubb it up big time and for sure lose the election.
18 posted on 09/21/2012 5:52:29 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: Peter ODonnell; plain talk

I don’t believe a pin-point strike can solve this problem.

A pin-point strike would be a trigger for a very large and bloody conflict that has an unpredictable outcome.

As post 4 says, the only workable outcome is the overthrow of the Iranian regime from the inside. This is bigger than popping a few mullahs, though, so even this is a major undertaking. But doing it from the inside is the least bad solution with the best outcome. Take them down by force and its a generation-long war unless we are prepared to fight the way our grandfathers did.

If these sites are to be attacked by air, we are the only ones with the forces, and the basing, to sustain the kind of air campaign it would take to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, and take down their shore missile batteries, and keep the Straits of Hormuz open to non-Iranian traffic.

This is not something Israel can do. If military force is used, its our baby. Its understandable to hope Israel does the dirty work but I don’t believe a handful of planes operating a thousand miles from home can do this job. We’re the ones with air bases on all four sides of Iran. And a fleet in the Gulf. But even after a strike, its game on, a real shooting war that won’t be over until the regime is removed and rebuilt. That won’t be as easy as removing Saddam, and that cost us 9 years.

Better an “Iranian Spring” and a few hit squads in the shadows.


19 posted on 09/21/2012 5:53:32 PM PDT by marron
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To: Peter ODonnell

We don’t know any of this for sure. But there is reason to believe:

1. That Obama has warned Israel not to attack before the election.

2. That Israel lacks the ability to pull off a completely succcessful attack on Iran’s Nuclear facilities without U.S. help.

That would seem to make a pre-election attack unlikely, unless Israel has solid evidence that Iran plans to stage a nuclear attack on them in the next couple of months.


20 posted on 09/21/2012 5:53:46 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: yarddog

This is true. I think it would all depend on Obama’s reaction.
The problem for him would be that not supporting Israel would anger a large amount of Jews and really mobilize conservatives. If he did support them and went to war with Iran, his base might turn on him.

Here’s an interesting observation.

Obama is not the beneficiary of the blue-dog Democrats. He has marginalized them and expanded his far left base. I think we can all agree that there is a much higher percentage of far-left loons in the Democrat base than ever before. These are the anti-war, anti-Israel, pro-Islam nutjobs. If there was a war, this could really come back to bite him. They would see it as a betrayal of far left principles and would be bitter about voting for him, meanwhile, we conservatives are still pi$$ed because he’s a socialist usurper.

It may sound optimistic, but this might be a time when the “rally around the flag” effect doesn’t work. It didn’t work for Chamberlain (who, like Obama, caused conflict through appeasement). When the allies retreated from Norway, the politicians and the people of Britain abandoned him and lost faith in his leadership.


21 posted on 09/21/2012 5:54:11 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: SkyPilot

We already know Ambassador Stevens was a Muslim, and gay.

we know this how?


22 posted on 09/21/2012 5:55:35 PM PDT by RitchieAprile (my French needs no pardoning..)
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To: SkyPilot
" That may be precisely why Obama asks the Saudis and the Muslim Brotherhood to start a war before the election. I don't think for a second that Obama would not do this. "

Exactly..... BINGO !!

Perhaps ? that's what we saw what happened last week in the middle east but they flubbed it up big time.... or cause a Gulf of Tonkin incident ?
23 posted on 09/21/2012 5:56:48 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: yarddog

Or in this case, “don’t leave your horse’s ass in the middle of a stream”.


24 posted on 09/21/2012 5:56:50 PM PDT by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
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To: RitchieAprile

An EMP strike over several of Iran’s nuke production sites, Teheran and some key military bases would pretty much destroy both their nuke program and the regime at the same time. Even using nukes to do this, not one window would be broken, but the means exists to do it without nukes. It is the ultimate in assymetrical warfare, and is just far enough outside the box for it to be considered a realistic choice (especially given the do-or-die stakes for Israel).


25 posted on 09/21/2012 5:57:34 PM PDT by Ancesthntr (Bibi to Odumbo: Its not going to happen.)
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To: Peter ODonnell

I dont think anyone cares..


26 posted on 09/21/2012 5:58:02 PM PDT by dalebert
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To: Peter ODonnell

It will have been attacked on Obama’s watch. Period.


27 posted on 09/21/2012 5:58:14 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: Peter ODonnell

I have been pondering this for the past couple of weeks. Now, just my HO, but I don’t think Bibi will strike until the usurper is out of office.

He knows he will get NO support from the US if he does so, perhaps he knows barry will help those trying to destroy Israel.

Once we win this, and come January, when Romney is sworn in, the strike will happen....because Bibi knows Romney will have his back.

Again, just my HO....but Bibi and Mitt go way back. Pretty sure the plan is set.


28 posted on 09/21/2012 5:59:54 PM PDT by NoGrayZone (For evil to triumph it is only necessary for good men to do nothing.)
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To: plain talk

That’s not going to happen. Read about the Basiji and how children were used to clear minefields and later used to stop the student revolution.

http://www.matthiaskuentzel.de/contents/ahmadinejads-world


29 posted on 09/21/2012 5:59:54 PM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: Viennacon

If Romney wins the Israleis have the US as an allie.
If Obama wins the Israelis don’t have support.
So the Israelis will not strike before the election.
If the Israelis must strike it will be by stealth, using assets already in Iran to sabotage the nuclear facilities.


30 posted on 09/21/2012 6:03:16 PM PDT by ozdragon
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To: NoGrayZone

I hink you’re right on the money.


31 posted on 09/21/2012 6:03:35 PM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: SkyPilot
Because all signs point to Obama being a gay Muslim himself




32 posted on 09/21/2012 6:04:06 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: Navy Patriot
"Sponsor regime change and take over the country from the inside via surrogates.

Kinda like Carter did with the Shah?

Or Obama did with Mubarak?

Or Hillary did with Qaddafi?

Point well made.

33 posted on 09/21/2012 6:05:28 PM PDT by wtd
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To: Peter ODonnell
Israel will attack Iran next week, probably on Tuesday or Wednesday, while Ahmadinejad is still in NY at the UN, but before Netanyahu is scheduled to arrive. (during Yom Kippur)

Israels hand is being forced by the progress that Iran has made in producing low enriched uranium. They already have over 200 kg of 20% UF6 and that's enough to disperse it to various locations making it much more difficult to destroy, while they finish enriching it to weapons grade.

Israel needs to attack soon, while it can be most effective and they can't count on US support from Obama. They either go now or risk Obama winning re-election or have to wait until next year if Romney wins. The waiting scenarios are not good, either way.

Attacking now offers the element of surprise, with Netanyahu scheduled to be in NY at the UN, Ahmadinejad out of the country and the Jewish holidays. A bonus would be that Ahmadinejad would immediately fly home, putting him in hostile air space at a time when the Israelis can predict where he'll be and make him a target.

Using a nuclear bomb detonated at high altitude over Iran would provide a crippling EMP (ElectroMagnetic Pulse) strike against Irans infrastructure without the negative stigma of the radiation effects of using nukes. Once the electric grid is down, and most of the Iranian defenses, taking out the nuclear development sites becomes much easier.

Israel can cripple the Iranian economy, set back their nuclear program by ten years and destroy most of their military capability and it can be accomplished in 2-3 days.

This is just my personal theory, based on open source knowledge and common sense. It goes without saying that it could be wrong. We'll know in a few days.

p.s. Obama loses more face in foreign policy

34 posted on 09/21/2012 6:07:55 PM PDT by tentmaker (vote for John Galt)
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To: SkyPilot
Obama understands that a resolution of the conflict between Israel and Iran is the key to his reelection. Regime change in Iran is key to this solution.
Obama has the support of the Brotherhood to bring about this change. If he takes his cue from Bush who created a coalition of the willing to bring down Hussein he will be able to end the chaos in the region vis a vis the Ayatollah. He has already cemented his relationship with the Brotherhood. He can finesse Israel out of the picture by supporting the creation of a new Muslim regime in Iran headed up by the Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood will move against the Ayatollah if they believe Israel has the ability to return Iran to a democracy.
We may yet see evil genius at work.
35 posted on 09/21/2012 6:08:48 PM PDT by Louis Foxwell (Better the devil we can destroy than the Judas we must tolerate.)
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To: Peter ODonnell
I think Netanyahu played a big card today, going out of his way to assure Obama he wouldn't interfere to help Romney win. That signals to me he's playing both ends against the middle and will wait until after the election to attack unless there's an unforeseen crisis. He doesn't want to alienate Obama in case he's reelected.

If and when Israel attacks things could get very sticky very fast. It depends on U.S. actions and how they're countered by Iranian nuclear-armed surrogates like Russia, Pakistan, North Korea and China.

If there's a big blow-up threatening Israel's existence I have no doubt Israel will go nuclear. What will it have to lose? But it'll be crisis time for the entire world. It's deja vu 1938. I feel the world is at a critical tipping-point.

36 posted on 09/21/2012 6:09:20 PM PDT by Bernard Marx
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To: Peter ODonnell

Gas price, gas price, gas price.

Any conflict will shoot the gas price up, and that’s a tax on everyone who drives a vehicle, flies in planes, or buys things at stores. No matter who Obama tries to blame, people will pin it on him.

So any conflict will hurt Obama.


37 posted on 09/21/2012 6:20:26 PM PDT by pie_eater
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To: Peter ODonnell

Gas price, gas price, gas price.

Any conflict will shoot the gas price up, and that’s a tax on everyone who drives a vehicle, flies in planes, or buys things at stores. No matter who Obama tries to blame, people will pin it on him.

So any conflict will hurt Obama.


38 posted on 09/21/2012 6:20:26 PM PDT by pie_eater
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To: Peter ODonnell
One effect would be that all QE Stock gains would be temporarily wiped out with a huge stock market drop in valuations across the board. Recent history shows that in 1990 when the US started DESERT SHIELD the markets dropped about 40%, and did not rebound until DESERT STORM at which time it settled up about 12% over the deployment start. The same thing happened for Gulf War II; this is because of the uncertainity of OIL and other fallout.

So a war with Iran would provide short term buying/selling opportunities - say you have OIL and GOLD stocks at the onset of hostilities and you sell higher on fears, then go into commodities that have dropped and ride them up when everything returns to normal.

At that point, if you understand what you are investing in you could turn 50-60% profits (IRAs would be best).

39 posted on 09/21/2012 6:36:16 PM PDT by Jumper
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To: SkyPilot

Yes, I think you are correct on pretty much all of that. If Obama has some big “counterstrike” planned on the “terrorists” (or their baby formula factory) right before the election, we’ll pretty much have confirmation that he arranged this with his muslim buddies as political theatre.


40 posted on 09/21/2012 6:50:26 PM PDT by Boogieman
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To: Peter ODonnell

If Israel attacks, they will stop nuclear destruction of Israel by Iran. However the tension with the Arab (read Muslim) League will go sky high. The Palestinians and Hezbulla from Lebanon will begin shelling in earnest, things will get out of hand and all the Muslim neighbors will join the fray and attack Israel with chemical and biological weaponry. Israel upon seeing the incoming missiles may take a chance that they are not WMD, or not, but in the end, will have one choice, win the war now, or be eradicated in Genocide.

At that point I suspect the Samson option will be invoked and the middle east will have a full scale nuclear war. In the end, oil production will be reduced to the point that the world will loose most food production for a year or so. It will trigger a world wide famine.

The Election? Who cares. After the EBT’s no longer buy dinner, the democrats will linch Obama and eat him. Never feed a slothful man, they have a poisonous bite.


41 posted on 09/21/2012 6:53:37 PM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: Peter ODonnell

Reports are that bambi has transfered MOPs to Israel, under the condition that Bebe not strike till after the election.

Hold on to your hats, the likely scenario is if bambi wins, Bebe explodes 6-8 nukes high altitude over iran, destroying its electronic infrastructure, meaning no missiles, and an easy 1-2 week degradation of the nuke program using larger transport aircraft, with fighter support. This scenario, will see similar destruction to Lebanon and syria. Gaza gets recouped, and after Lebanon is 7th centuried it likely is reoccupied.

Willard wins.

We have in the last 6 months moved enormous assets to theater. Israel will not attack, we will. the reduction will take 3 hours, no nukes. The MOPs will be the same bombs flying from israel on B2b’s. With 20 arleigh burkes now in theater, missiles are much less of an issue, but 1 chem bomb and the jews remove that country.

So likely iran loses its seat of religious power and all military bases. Lebanon may or may not understand that suicide by cop is not good. Syria will attach and will be terminated.


42 posted on 09/21/2012 6:53:49 PM PDT by waynesa98
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To: American Constitutionalist

I don’t know, I doubt he would make a play that big, especially since Iran is under the umbrella of his friend Putin. He won’t do anything in Syria because of them, and so it only stands to reason he won’t do anything to Iran either. Obama may have schemed his way to the forefront of the American commies, but there’s no way the Russians are taking orders from this upstart.


43 posted on 09/21/2012 6:54:53 PM PDT by Boogieman
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To: American in Israel

The Dims will call for martial law and federal control over all economic matters


44 posted on 09/21/2012 6:56:56 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Louis Foxwell

I think you’re forgetting one huge variable, and that is the Russians. Iran is their female dog, so to speak, and Obama doesn’t have the spine to cross that line, at least not yet.

I also doubt the Russians would willingly go along with any plan to give control over Iran to the MB/AQ alliance, since they have been aiding Syria for months to prevent exactly that. The Russians probably agreed to let Obama set the MB loose on a few regimes, but they will not want to see them grow too powerful, because the Russians understand the pragmatic benefit of having a divided Muslim world which they manipulate to their benefit. A caliphate would not be so responsive to Russian influence, and might go rogue altogether.


45 posted on 09/21/2012 7:02:49 PM PDT by Boogieman
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To: Peter ODonnell
You have some interesting theories.

My Thoughts:

Any attack on Iran will take weeks, not a day or two. Iran has extensive air defenses that must be destroyed before the nuclear facilities can be thoroughly bombed to rubble. The Israeli attack will look much like the month long air attacks preceding Desert Storm in Iraq. It is bound to affect the election. How, I cannot say. Too many things can happen.

I don't believe Bibi can wait & hope for Romney. If Obama is reelected, Israel is doomed. If Bibi waits for Romney's election, Romney will INSIST on several months to educate himself on the situation & prepare the US people for war. I don't think Bibi has the time to wait, & no guarantee that Romney will aggressively stop the Iranian nuclear program.

I'm guessing Bibi will attack before the election. Before the election, Obama is vulnerable, & therefore is limited in his criticism of Israel. After his reelection, he will be invulnerable. If Romney is elected, an attack before the election leaves him blameless for any consequences, but an attack after Romney is elected makes it HIS WAR in the eyes of the Left & the MSM. Not the best way for Bibi to start relations with a new President.

It is highly likely that when Israel attacks, Iran will lash out at the Gulf Shipping & the US fleet. This will force Obama into the war, with his generals/admirals insisting that, to protect the Gulf & the fleet, the Iranian navy & missile assets must be destroyed. Naturally, Iranian air defenses must be dealt with first, so Israel gets a big help there.

This is where the US politics comes into play. Obama, the un-warrior, will be in a sandbox he is totally unfamiliar with. His forces are cramped in the tight Gulf, requiring right decisions, delivered quickly, to avert disaster. There will be little room for mistakes, or indecision. Ships can sink quicker than a round of golf. Situations will confront him for which he has zero experience & WH advisers that can only say, "Blame Bush".

I would be very surprised if Obama came out of this war a hero. He doesn't have it in him.

Syria is irrelevant in this conflict. Syria itself is in a civil war, with no assets to send against Israel, & the last thing Assad needs is Israeli jets/missiles over Damascus. Iran will be too preoccupied with fending off Israeli attack over Iran to send significant assets to Syria to attack Israel.

Hezbollah is the main local threat to Israel, & this will be the vehicle Iran will use to attack Israel locally. Hezbollah has thousands of missiles to fire at Israel. Lebanon will pay a heavy price for this. I believe Israel will invade Lebanon & destroy Hezbollah & much of Lebanon.

Hamas will do no more than protest & fire some rockets. I doubt they want to see Israeli tanks, knowing that Israel is on full alert & the Israeli Army is eager to kick some butt.

That's the way I see it. I expect to hear of the Israeli attack any day now. It's probably just a question of the weather.

46 posted on 09/21/2012 7:21:03 PM PDT by Mister Da (The mark of a wise man is not what he knows, but what he knows he doesn't know!)
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To: Peter ODonnell
What happens to the presidential election if Israel attacks Iran, and/or if Syria boils over into war between Syria and Israel?

Very little. It's not like it isn't expected at this point. Now if the Iranians manage to do something in response that we aren't prepared for, that could change the election dynamic.

47 posted on 09/21/2012 7:23:51 PM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: Pearls Before Swine

I would not put it past Obama to order the intercept of an Israeli air strike. They would have to fly through U.S. fighter and missile coverage.


48 posted on 09/21/2012 7:25:14 PM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: plain talk

I believe an Israeli attack will be the catalyst for regime change in Iran.

The Israelis know that regime change is the best long term solution to Iranian aggression. Many of their bombs & missiles will be directed at the regime, with some probable successes. There may very well be hit teams on the ground in Iran to start the war.

There is little doubt that many Iranians will rally to their country when Israel attacks, but there will be many more who realize the regime brought this upon them with the many threats to Israel. The blind patriots would never be a part of a revolution, but the rest might see their opportunity.

Israel can improve this opportunity by bombing the power infrastructure, turn the lights out in the cities, leaving the people to stew in the dark & heat. Angry people lash out, & since Israel is a long way away, that lashing out is likely to fall on the regime for failing to protect the people & destroy the evil Israel.


49 posted on 09/21/2012 7:46:28 PM PDT by Mister Da (The mark of a wise man is not what he knows, but what he knows he doesn't know!)
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To: tentmaker

A plausible scenario, but just one thing. Killing AJ changes nothing. He’s a hand-puppet; there are plenty more where he came from — or nobody at all. Once a shooting war starts, the Twelver Ali Khamenei will become more visible.


50 posted on 09/21/2012 8:34:07 PM PDT by FredZarguna (Who ya gonna believe? Your metrosexual smartphone or your lyin' eyes?)
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