Posted on 09/26/2012 6:04:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The overwhelming majority of public opinion polls show President Obama cruising to re-election. State polls of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and Iowa are now consistently showing Obama with leads of five points or more.
But Romney is not behind in the polls because liberal Republicans are being turned off or independents are moving toward Obama. Most polls show Romney doing very well within his own party and holding his own with independents. Romney is dropping in the polls because pollsters are predicting a Democratic edge in turnout that will make 2008 look like a good year for the GOP.
For example, the most recent NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll of Virginia shows Romney carrying Republicans 95-3 and independents 54-43. In fact, if the poll were weighted the same way that the August NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll of Virginia was weighted, Romney would be leading Obama. But because of the increased Democratic lean of the sample, he instead trails Obama by four points.
But the oversampling of Democrats is only a small part of a larger problem. In addition, pollsters are undersampling groups that are sympathetic to Republicans, like evangelicals and people who make over $100,000 a year, and oversampling groups that are sympathetic to Democrats, like mainline Protestants and people who make less than $50,000 a year.
Heres what Marist is predicting the 2012 electorate will look like in various swing states, relative to 2008:
Republicans Democrats
Iowa -6.1% Iowa +5.9%
Colorado +3.2% Colorado +13.3%
Virginia -21.2% Virginia -20.5%
Florida +11.7% Florida +10.8%
Ohio -9.7% Ohio -2.6%
Income >100k Income <50k
Iowa -19% Iowa +11.6 %
Colorado -25% Colorado +68%
Virginia -14.3% Virginia +20%
Florida -29.2% Florida +30.8
Ohio -14.3% Ohio +11.4%
Evangelicals
Iowa -22.5%
Colorado -19%
Virginia -25%
Florida +4%
Ohio -30%
I dont mean to single out Marist. Its representative of most of the media polls showing the president on track for re-election.
So why are these polls skewing so far left? Conservative conspiracy theories tying the polls to mainstream media bias fail to acknowledge the need for pollsters to retain professional credibility. They cant do that if they are consistently making bad predictions. I think the problem is that pollsters are so focused with ensuring that Democratic-leaning groups — especially minorities — are fairly represented in their polls that theyre failing to ensure that Republican-leaning groups are also fairly represented in their polls.
Of course, its possible that the pollsters are right. Perhaps minority voters will turn out in even higher numbers in 2012 than they did in 2008. Maybe Republicans who are not sold on Mitt Romney will stay home. If thats the case, President Obama really will cruise to re-election.
Brandon J. Gaylord, the editor-in-chief of HorseRacePolitics.com, is a graduate of George Washington Universitys Graduate School of Political Management. Brandon got his start in politics as an intern in Vice President Richard Cheneys Office of Political Affairs.
Frankly, I don’t think they count the votes. I really don’t. The polls are intended to lay the groundwork for the desired outcome. It’a already a done deal.
Exactly! And let’s not forget the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall!
The so called skewing is an indication that the polls have an error in methodology that they are not getting random responses.
What possibilities would cause this?
Is there some natural demographic that would skew results?
Could a common phone number list be skewed by avoiding typical republican geographic areas.
Is there a common denominator on allocating phone numbers resulting in more democrats getting phone numbers than republicans?
Could those making the calls or those tallying results be infiltrated ?
Nice explanation and thanks for posting it. I pray the voter enthusiasm trend from 2010 still exists in the swing states. If not, we have reached the point of no return that our founders predicted.
I think D+2 is safe. That is a max number for the Dems IMHO. As long as Romney can hold onto his 10% + margin with the Independents he should win a tight race. If we repeat the 2010 turnout he will coast home.
And remember, only a tiny minority actually answer the poll calls...Pew said only 9% were responding...down from 38% (according to a UW poll down in 2008.)
And they actually believe those who have the wherewithal to answer are the same demographically as the voting population of the US.
Just tell me you didn't stop at Winchell's Donuts for breakfast that morning!
Back in 1976 my wife and I went with a group from McClellan AFB when some of the guys did that. When that yeast in those donuts reactivated with the alcohol in that wine, there were some very ill Airmen! And they didn't even get to enjoy the Hanns Kornell Champagne Cellar which was at the end of the valley if I am not mistaken.
They completely underestimated republican turnout in 2010, and then have spent the last two years trying to forget it! Now we are being told that republican turnout in 2012 won’t be anywhere near 2010, and in fact the Dims are going to show up in numbers bigger than 2008!
Okay, so a significant number of those republicans who were mad as hell in 2010 are just going to stay home and pass on a chance to fire Zero because they don’t like Romney? Yeah, right.
The pollsters have nightmares about the 2010 turnout levels being applied to their crap polls. In that scenario they get a Romney landslide.
Bring it on!
Yep pollsters are busy scrambling around trying to figure out how to poll given the technological changes in phones, demographic changes, party registration changes etc.
Basically they are ALL making just making their best guess about turn out.
Actually not completely true. Both Rassmussen poll on voter id and current state by state registration numbers do not show that old standard of "Democrat voter registration dominance" to be as universally true as it use to be. So pollsters who base their polls based wholly on self identification could just be reaching more Democrats.
Serious polling weights for a reasonable mix of D-R-I based on figures such as voter turn out, current voter registration and other factors rather then simply calling up and asking people which party they identify themselves with.
All I hear is how Outrageous the Bias is this time around by the Main Stream Media,what do you expect ,the debt is at Levels never envisioned in History,Unemployment,Foreign Policy Melt down,How the Hell else are you going to Sucker the Americans to Buy this Huckster again?
Now of course the Republicans have sure given you more than an Even shot at pulling it off with their Charisma Challenged Candidate so let it ride.
Romney is the Gawkiest Candidate I have seen since Hubert Humphrey. Romneys best hope is that the TV picture is Cloudy when they Debate,his Smirks and choppy Gestures with his head make him look so awkward he is hard to look at.
I remember when Kennedy and Nixon debated,people listening on the Radio said Nixon won,those watching on TV said Kennedy won. I think this may be the same.
IMHO that fact that we have to depend on a Good Performance in a Debate with this Communists Record only says we Have already Lost,I will Not be Watching the First debate anyway,I will Be where it really counts ,Bible study at Church.
If you really want that in a poll I can write one up now for every competitive voting situation in the country ~ $10 tops ~
exactly.
My tag line.
RE: do you expect ,the debt is at Levels never envisioned in History,Unemployment,Foreign Policy Melt down,How the Hell else are you going to Sucker the Americans to Buy this Huckster again?
___________________
Many Americans are aware of this debt problem, the bog question is this -— ARE MOST OF THOSE IN THE SWING STATES AWARE OR PAYING ATTENTION? And even if they do, DO THEY CARE?
Will Seniors just shrug their shoulders and say, “it isn’t my problem... I might be dead by then... it’s my grandkid’s problem, let them deal with it.”
NOTE: I know of a few who have this attitude. Some work in my office.
Th answer to this question has a direct bearing on the future of this country...
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