[Revolting cat!]

I’ve been hearing this word ‘oversampling’ a lot lately, which reminds me of the time I oversampled in Napa Valley, California. But isn’t it true that more citizens of this veil of tears register as Democrats than as Republicans?

[Gene Eric]

The oversampling is intended to reflect the statistical skew in turnout. It’s not a bad practice providing it’s relevant.

[MNJohnnie]

Depends on the state. A reasonable sample would be Dem +4 nation wide. That assumes that the election will fall some place between 2004 and 2008 as far as turn out goes.

However here is the problem for the pollsters. Since 2010 Reps have been posting significantly higher registration numbers in most of the battle ground states. So it is possible that even a +4 Dem sample is still too high based on current party registration numbers

So Dems point to 2008 and claim they should get a bigger sample Repbs point to 2010 and say the Dems should get a smaller sample

Problem is the pollsters are using 2008 as a base line and assuming Obama will do better in 2012.

See any evidence on the ground that Obama is doing better with the voters in 2012 then he did in 2008?

[muawiyah]

yes, that is true. but the issue is that more people tell pollsters that they're democrats ~ and that's what the pollsters work with.

If you get into weighting poll results to reflect other polls showing a different distribution by party respondents you'll invariably screw up ~ several reasons for that we need not get into here.

However, the number of so-called independents has continued to increase such that you have pollsters telling us about 35% are Republicans, 35% are Democrats and 30% are Independents.

So, an answer to a question ~ what party do independents regularly vote for? it could be they don't actually vote ~ they just use that self-description as a way to cover up that fact. with a known 90 million adults in this country not voting at all, there are plenty of potential voters to go around to fill that bill. Besides, you don't want to accidentally or otherwise let a Democrat group find out you're a Democrat or they'll add your number to their robocall operation ~ and that can be a fate worse than death in some areas!

i tend to discount whatever it is pollsters say independents want ~ same with 'the broad middle' ~ a theoretical construct that never existed in American politics ~ not at any time in more than 2 centuries!

For the most part as long as Obamugabe is at less than 50% Romney and the Mittbots will probably win.

[AndyTheBear]

Used to be so...but not anymore :-)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

[higgmeister]

"...which reminds me of the time I oversampled in Napa Valley, California."

Just tell me you didn't stop at Winchell's Donuts for breakfast that morning!

Back in 1976 my wife and I went with a group from McClellan AFB when some of the guys did that. When that yeast in those donuts reactivated with the alcohol in that wine, there were some very ill Airmen! And they didn't even get to enjoy the Hanns Kornell Champagne Cellar which was at the end of the valley if I am not mistaken.