What’s Going On In Ohio? [Nationally Romney Leads By 18 Among Men But Only By 6-9 Points In Ohio?]

ABCNewsBlog ^ | October 27, 2012 | Amy Walter

[Steelfish]

What’s Going On In Ohio? By Amy Walter

Oct 26, 2012

Or, why does Obama continue to hold a small lead in that state while national polls have the race a dead heat. The three most recent Ohio polls (CNN, Time, and CBS/Quinnipiac) show President Obama with a lead of 4-5 points. Meanwhile, the latest ABC/Washington Post national tracking poll has the race a dead heat, with Romney at 49 percent and Obama at 48 percent.

How is that possible?

Three things: Democrats, white voters, and men. 1) The Democratic advantage in the Ohio polls is anywhere from 3-9 points (it was 8 points in 2008). Our latest national survey showed Democrats with a 4 point advantage on party identification. And, Obama is getting almost every single one of those Democrats to vote for him (anywhere between 92 to 94 percent). In 2008, Obama carried 89 percent of the Democratic vote.

2) In Ohio Obama does 7 to 11 points better among white voters and 7 to 12 points better among white men specifically than he does nationally. The three media polls from Ohio showed Romney getting between 49 to 53 percent of the white vote, while the ABC/Washington Post poll showed Romney winning white voters nationally with 60 percent of the vote. The CNN and CBS/Quinnipiac polls show Romney between winning 54 – 59 percent of white men . The ABC/Washington Poll shows Romney carrying white men by a whopping 66 percent.

3) Romney does better among men nationally than he does in Ohio. The national tracking poll shows Romney leading among men by 18 points. In Ohio, however, Romney’s lead among men is a more modest 6 to 9 points. And, among women, Obama has anywhere from a 12 to 19 point lead over Romney.

[fortheDeclaration]

True. The national lead will translate into a win in Ohio.

[fortheDeclaration]

We are going to win Ohio and it won’t be close.

[fortheDeclaration]

That has nothing to do with predicting the election.

You are not going to have a solid 5% lead in the national election and lose Ohio.

That is a fact.

[kenmcg]

‘Organizing Vote Fraud needs to be treated as a near capital offense! In my mind it is as a fundamental attack on the sovereignty of the national as espionage. It corrupts our most fundamental and foundational institution the act of voting”

You’re 100% right but who has faith in the DOJ? Holder’s in charge, and I’m sure most of, if not all, US Chief Attys. are democRATS.

[NYRepublican72]

You are not going to have a solid 5% lead in the national election and lose Ohio.

I'd tend to agree with you. My hunch is that since these polling operations got the election wrong last time around because of the early vote, they are overcompensating this go round.

There is a definite oversampling of those who claim to have voted already as opposed to the percentage that have voted already. And that subgroup that allegedly is breaking 60/40 Obama is too statistically insignificant at the end of the day. Ohio has generally been within a few points of the national result. I'd be shocked if it wasn't there at the end of the day. It can happen, but is very unlikely.

[Reily]

national = nation

excuse my typo

Actually one could argue its primarily a state issue.
It's unfortunate that “treason to the state” is no longer a legal concept.

But you are right about Holder, hopefully when he is gone enough of “Fast & Furious” can be laid on his doorstep that he might be faced with “talking” or getting extradited to Mexico for murder. That might be motivational!