Over 300 Electoral College Votes to Romney

11/2/2012 | David T.

[Texas Critic]

The 2012 election will usher in a new administration, and they will win in a landslide. While even dyed-in-the-wool Obama supporters are willing to admit that Romney will likely win 50% of the popular vote, they are just as quick to point to the 2000 election and the President’s current lead in the Electoral College. While this loyalty is commendable, the cognitive dissidence it requires is shameful. Romney will win this election in a landslide in both popular vote and Electoral College vote; with at least 54% of the popular vote and over 300 votes in the Electoral College. The reason Romney will win over 300 Electoral College votes, which is contrary to virtually all polling data, has less to do with the methodological errors in polling and more to do with the excessive amounts of available data that predict the President’s defeat. Currently there are roughly 11 swing states (NV, CO, PA, IA, FL, OH, MI, WI, NH, VA and MN). Within these swing states the really important information that needs to be looked at is the approval rating of the president as well as the enthusiasm gap of party identifiers. As of August the approval rating of the President was below 50% in all of these states. Until recently the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats within many of the states was greater than 10%. Generally the approval rating of a President within a state is a good indicator of what the final tally will be at the end of the day. There have been a few exceptions, but there are always exceptions, and when the disapproval rating is almost identical there are no exceptions. The enthusiasm gap has recently closed in many of these states, but a 10% - 15% jump in enthusiasm with virtually no external justification is suspect. Even if taken to be true, does not change the President’s approval rating and also stands in contrast to the groundwork already done in the months leading up to the election by the enthusiastic Republican supporters. This enthusiasm gap almost always mirrors the vote of so-called undecided voters. That is logical. If you are an undecided voter then you are more likely to support who your neighbor or friends are most excited about. An undecided voter who participates does so because someone takes the time to project their own excitement and conviction on them. In the end Romney will win NV, CO, OH, VA , PA, IA, FL, and WI. Of these states only CO has a Democratic governor, and in this case that won’t make a difference. The great thing about Romney having the potential to win by such a large margin is that the potential positive press President Obama is attempting to acquire from Hurricane Sandy will have a minimal effect on the final tally. In other words, if the President pushes Romney from the 317 or so and pushes Romney down to 297, it is no less of a landslide and a mandate on the policies of the extreme left.

[tsowellfan]

Thank you!

[TomEwall]

Based on the early voting, NV doesn’t look good for Romney. However, OH is looking good.

Most agree Romney has IN, NC, FL, and VA. Rasmussen given Romney CO, IA, NH, and OH as well, with WI being a tie. That would give Romney either 285 or 295 depending on WI.

Rove is projecting Obama at 48%, for a final result of 51% to 48%. I think this is the most likely scenario. I was hoping for a bigger win for Romney, and that might happen (particularly PN looks possible), but I think the most likely scenario will be close to 2004.

I’m surprised so many polls show Obama up in Ohio. Ohio doesn’t seem to be going well at all for him, based on the early voting. Dem turnout doesn’t seem to be nearly high enough.

[TomEwall]

This is an interesting comment. Colorado is the state which pushed Obama over in 2008. He could have won without Ohio, and still could, in a perfect storm scenario, by carrying IA, WI, NV, CO and NH (270 to 266 win).

I live in CO. I voted already, and found the ballot a bit confusing. It will be interesting to see if that comes into play.

I’d be surprised to see Obama win this time around. Not much enthusiasm here. I saw a yard sign, post on a fence, which said something like “Obama for President” and someone else wrote “Who Cares?”, which I think about sums things up here. I live in a Dem part of town, in Denver, and enthusiasm is down.

[CPONuke]

Not get sarcasm much? I am serious about MSNBC though. If its close they Will advocate for the electors overriding the voters. Does anyone expect less from Matthews and Co?