2013 Housing Recovery? Housing Starts Surge, But Economy Remains Weak

Confounded Interest ^ | 01/17/2013 | Anthony B. Sanders

[whitedog57]

Housing starts climbed above the lowest points since 1960. That shows you how dreadful the housing market has been since peaking (locally) in September 2005.

One-unit starts rose 8.07% in December while multiple unit starts (aka, apartments) rose 20.28%.

As we already know, homebuilder confidence remain flat even though starts are improving, particularly apartment starts.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell more than forecast last week to the lowest level in five years, pointing to further improvement in the labor market. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 37,000 to 335,000 in the week ended Jan. 12, the lowest level since the period ended Jan. 19, 2008, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 369,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

On the other hand, The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index fell to -35.5. It remains far below the long-run average of -15.6 and has yet to return to the average since “The Great Recession.”

The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Diffusion Index General Conditions fell to -5.80 signaling contraction. It too remains below a long-run average of -0.73. It was the biggest swing and a miss in seven months.

I remain concerned about the increase in taxes and the lack of mortgage purchase applications for any recovery.

And slow real GDP growth.

[whitedog57]

The housing pundits are screaming RALLY, but this economist is saying "Not so fast!"

[CowboyJay]

[Grams A]

Before we know it, unemployment will be down around 4.0%. Such a miracle worker - /sarc

[veracious]

Could not have anything to do with tens of score billion $ of MOOTA purchasing mortgage securities. No way Money-Out-Of-Thin-Air artificially raises prices or keeps dead assets alive....................................