Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight

Political Ref ^ | 10/04/16

[TheRef]

Why Mike Pence will almost certainly give Trump a bump in the polls tonight

Mike Pence: The medicine Trump needs at just the right time

Trump will almost certainly head into his second debate with Hillary Clinton either in a tie with Hillary, or at least moving up in the polls. The reason for this is simple, Mike Pence is front and center tonight and he's the guy who most Republicans like and can relate to, and they are the ones Trump needs.

It was Republicans who caused Trump to drop a bit in the polls after the first debate. I listed five polls to the right where Trump lost the most support, and in those polls most of his slippage came because Republicans backed off of their support for Trump after the first debate. Pence is a die hard conservative, not only in policy but in temperament. Republicans longing for someone to rally around who is like them will find that man in Mike Pence.

While one might ask, but should this already have happened by now? Only partially. Vice Presidential nominees matter most on three occasions, the selection, the convention speech and the debate. These events are not equal, however, in significance. As we move close to the election, more people pay attention. Now virtually everyone who is going to pay attention is paying attention. That makes the debate key.

Pence can score major points for Trump just by acting like a Republican tonight. Under normal circumstances, Pence would bring some Republicans home. But after Trump's bad week, the Pence effect will be doubly impactful. Especially if Pence hits the subject of the Supreme Court hard, the impact will likely be substantial.

Most of Trump's losses since the debate have come from Republican defections or loss of Republican enthusiasm. Below are five polls where Trump's losses were most significant after the debate. In each poll, the losses were highest among Republicans, Pence's natural audience.

Franklin & Marshall PA - 9/28-10/2	Trump receives 71% of GOP support while Clinton receives 79% of Democrats
PA - 9/30-10/3	Trump receives 75% of GOP support, while Clinton receives 90% of Democrats
Quinnipiac FL - 9/27-10/2	Trump receives 84% of GOP support, while Clinton receives 92% of Democrats
Fox News National - 9/30	Like the CNN poll below, results were the same in this 9/30 poll as the 9/15 poll among registered voters, Clinton +4.0. The shift in voter enthusiasm gave Clinton a two-point bump among likely voters after the debate, and a three-point lead.
CNN National - 9/28-10/2	Among registered voters, Clinton led 45-41, almost the same as the previous poll, 44-41. But Trump led among likely voters by two in the first poll, but trailed by five in the second, a seven-point shift! This shift came almost entirely from voter enthusiasm of Democrats increasing and Republicans decreasing.

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[CatOwner]

Wishful thinking. They are going to bombard Pence with topics and one-liners in this "debate" in order to keep the Trump campaign from gaining any traction. I bet the MSM spends the next couple days talking about this debates and how Pence lost, how Trump is unfit to lead this country, and how Hillary's polls numbers spiked again.

Sorry, but I have little faith in the American people at this point.

[KavMan]

I hope you’re RIGHT!!

WTF is wrong with Republicans on again & off again BS with TRUMP?

President Hillary is a non starter!!!

[arl295]

I already know they will declare Kaine the winner, heck, they probably have the headline already printed for tomorrow

[soycd]

As long as he don’t pull no todd akin.

[Dilbert San Diego]

There’s a difference between the people and the media. I agree; the media is going to crow about how Kaine bested Pence. But the American people may well have a different opinion.

[Aaron0617]

Most of Trump's losses since the debate have come from Republican defections or loss of Republican enthusiasm

Has the author watched the Trump rallys in the last week? Could Trump performed better in the first debate? sure, of course. But I dont see defections.

[Nifster]

Buck up

[Arm_Bears]

This is the Mike Pence that collapsed and groveled in front of George Stephanopoulos when challenged on Indiana’s RFRA legislation.

[Celtic Conservative]

There’s nothing wrong with your average repub. voter. Many of the polls are such fairy tales that they should be started with “Once upon a time...”. One poll had the turnout model at dems +12% and independents as only 7%. At his best Obama only pulled +6 on the turnout. And when it comes to enthusiasm Hillary ain’t no Obama. The polls are cooked. Ignore them.

CC

[proudpapa]

Anybody notice that Tim Kaine looks and acts like the “doorman from Seinfield”.

[Osage Orange]

Polls being news is so....totally wrong.

[proudpapa]

Mike Pence comes across as an all around nice guy. Super believable and trustworthy.

[TheRef]

Pence has just as much control up there as anybody else, and everybody knows he’s on his own against the other two. That gives him flexibility to say pretty much whatever he wants.

[AFreeBird]

Mike Pence: "..... And then they turn on the television the next morning and Donald Trump is still standing stronger than ever before and fighting for the American people. This **** really is fun to watch, I’ll tell you what.” Works for me. 😁

[luvbach1]

I agree with what you said Pence will face. But he is a politician, where Trump is not, and he knows how to pivot. And as BOR just said, he has gravitas.

[heterosupremacist]

This is the Mike Pence that collapsed and groveled in front of George Stephanopoulos when challenged on Indiana’s RFRA legislation.

Pence ‘collapsed and groveled’? Well, whatever...

[SecondAmendment]

The first thing Pence needs to do is ask Kaine why he wears a Hillary pin in his lapel instead of an American flag ... BOOM !

[KavMan]

I hope you’re right

Remember in 2012 & unskew the polls? LOL

[Jonty30]

Pence expects that and he’s a veteran politician. I think he will do well.