Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

Political Ref ^ | 10/10/16

[TheRef]

Ref's Ruling: The NBC/WSJ's small sample and timing led to an absurd result

The NBC/WSJ poll released on Monday, with its high margin of error of 4.6%, looks like a poll intended to reach a certain result. The eleven-point margin is nowhere close to accurate if the point of the poll is to determine where the popular vote is right now. If the poll is intended to show that Republicans were disgusted by Trump's words on a tape eleven years ago over the weekend when the tape ran wall-to-wall, it achieved that.

This kind of poll, often provided to us by the NBC/WSJ unit, serves to throw off poll averages. The poll fails all three prongs of the test and will be weighted down in the averages. If I am wrong and other polls reflect this radical shift, I will remove the weight. Somehow I don't think that will happen. If the poll fails only two prongs of the test, incidentally, no weight would be applied.

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Foul Called on NBC/WSJ Poll Penalty: 0.5 weight applied in poll averages. It will count only half as much as other polls.

National Polls

FAILED: Other national polls +2.5 Clinton, NBC/WSJ poll +11 Clinton. Well outside the five-point acceptable range.

Ohio

FAILED: OH +0.7 Clinton, NBC/WSJ poll +11 Clinton, well outside the acceptable five-point range.

	Ohio Dem	Natl Dem	Ohio GOP	Natl GOP
2012	50.7	51.0	47.7	47.2
2008	51.5	52.9	46.9	45.7
2004	48.7	48.3	50.8	50.7
2000	46.5	47.4	50.0	47.9
1996	47.4	49.2	41.0	40.7

 

Florida

FAILED: FL+1.8 Clinton. WSJ/NBC poll +11 Clinton, well outside the acceptable five-point range.

	Florida Dem	Natl Dem	Florida GOP	Natl GOP
2012	50.0	51.0	49.1	47.2
2008	51.0	52.9	48.2	45.7
2004	47.1	48.3	52.1	50.7
2000	48.8	47.4	48.8	47.9
1996	48.0	49.2	42.3	40.7

[cdcdawg]

She seems to be up by 11 points everywhere. That’s interesting.

[ez]

Almost like someone ordered up a double digit lead?

[Parley Baer]

“Almost like someone ordered up a double digit lead?”

It sure does.

[bgill]

The local CBS nightly news for Austin, TX (uber liberal blight on the state) just this minute said NBC poll gives Hellary 11 points on Trump. The CBS poll showed Trump was winning so they couldn’t use their own numbers to push Clinton. They followed up with more of Ryno not supporting Trump.

[grey_whiskers]

She's up 11 points. Which is why she had the plane take off immediately after the debate so she could get drunk.

And why she campaigned in Dearbornistan DETROIT the next day, talking about her good friend Michelle Obama.

The ONLY demographic favorable to her.

Meanwhile, Trump was pulling record crowds in PA (which has not gone Republican for President in ages).

Learn to *think*, people.

We're seeing an extinction burst.

[trebb]

They have to manufacture polls to make it look like the hot mic deal is gaining traction - if they fake enough polls, it might get some wishy-washy folks to jump the fence.