RE: Plan for McCain research ( Podesta Wiki discussion of oversampling polls)

Wikileaks ^ | 6/17/2008 | Wikileaks

[GilGil]

We are as interested in the "who" suburban, rural, we are polling as the issues. The plan includes a possible focus on women, might be something we want to do is over sample if we are worried about a certain group later in the summer.

[GilGil]

Just recently I posted an interview with Sefan Molineux and Bill Mitchell ( http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3481769/posts) and one of the main focuses was polling and you guessed it "oversampling." They also said that pollsters regularly call each other to compare results before publishing so they get the same polling percentages. In order to get the same percentages they "oversample." This e-mail confirms that these democrats are masters of skewing the polls by regularly oversampling.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Take that, pollsters......

[AlmaKing]

All our conspiracy theories are fall8ng by the way side.

[dp0622]

LIES, LIES AND MORE DAMN LYING AND CHEATING!!!!

I’m pulling a Namath right now and GUARANTEEING a TRUMP VICTORY!!!

[MaxistheBest]

I watched the Bill Mitchell video as well...he’s right...now that everyone is on to the dem/rep bias, they are oversampling women and oversampling college grads.

Trump kills it with non degree voters and they represent 75-80% of the voters.

[GilGil]

Tis oversampling is how they do it. that is the con in all this. Then the pollsters call each other to be within a few points of each other and all looks reasonable except the oversampling screws everything up.

[oblomov]

The oversampling is so they can get a more accurate estimate of that subgroup’s voting preference.

[NYRepublican72]

There’s nothing sinister here. Oversampling is used by campaigns to properly measure a subgroup that you’re targeting.

For example, if you are targeting blacks, and there are 700 people in your survey and they are at 10% of the vote, you’d only get 70 respondents.

As a result, the sample wouldn’t be reliable. They’ll overpoll blacks instead to get a statistically significant subsample of the subgroup to know where they stand.

[jmaroneps37]

But we are to believe every fake poll. Yeah right. Why who would have thunk they were using over samples? PLEEEEZE

[GilGil]

This election is the biggest wag the dog enterprise in history.

[semimojo]

Why would they want to skew an internal poll?

As others have mentioned, oversampling is a useful tool to help focus on a subgroup.

[GilGil]

Because it is not an internal poll. The internal polls must be under lock and key.

[semimojo]

So you think they were doing “7 surveys on John McCain” for public release?

I don’t remember those being published.