Straws in the wind!
Posted on 10/09/2018 7:57:21 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
There are several little data points that have emerged regarding the coming election.
They can be ignored; or they can be seen as “straws in the wind,” pointing toward victory for one side or the other.
Here are a number of possible “straws in the wind.”
The often quoted leftist “Hillary Clinton has a 95% chance of winning” 538.com now has Donald Trump’s approval rating at its highest point since March 17, 2017.
Rasmussen, which is NOT the site many think it is, now has Trump’s approval ratings at 51/47 putting him “above water” for the first time since early 2017.
Rasmussen has African American approval of Trump at 35% which is 12 points higher than it was in October 2017.
The daily Kos reports that 7% of people plan to vote third party.
This is almost certainly mostly Black Democrats who can’t make the full jump.
Note: Trump won Michigan by 10,700 votes and 50,000 Blacks in the Detroit metro area stayed home while another 7 % of Blacks voted third party.
Rasmussen has “others” (Hispanics mixed with Asians to hide Hispanic high numbers?) at 53%.
In Texas where a special election saw a Republican win a seat held by Democrats for 139 years; the results in one cycle were from a 15 point Republican loss to a 6 point Republican win.
The district is 68% Latino.
That victory also cancelled out a US House ‘toss up” Republican seat and made it lean Republican.
In Florida which is 27% Latino, the Republican governor candidate leads with Latinos 53/42.
In California the Democrat governor candidate leads with Latinos by a single point and there are 30 points of Latinos “undecided."
No reliable publicly available surveys of the Catholic vote have emerged but in 2016 Catholics voted 60/40 for Trump among mass attending Catholics and 52/45 among all Catholics.
There is good reason to believe that Catholics would side with Kavanaugh and many believe he was targeted because he is a Catholic – in politics perception is reality.
Evangelical Christians are reported to be ready to vote at an 83% rate which is even higher than they did last time when they cast 78% of their votes mostly for Trump.
Marsha Blackburn running in Tennessee, the most Evangelical heavy state (52%) in America is now up 14 points as per NY Times “live” poll.
Gallup says just 12% reported the economy is their biggest problem which fits perfectly with the Harris Harvard poll’s finding that 86% of Americans are happy with the economy.
The #walkaway movement of Democrats walking away from their party has grown from nothing in late May to be able to have a three day convention in Washington on Oct 26 27 and 28.
It has 380,000 social media followers and over 10 million people have viewed its founders’ video explaining why he started it.
The Democrats now totally ignore #walkaway after first saying it was produced by Russian bots.
We hear about the Congressional districts Democrats were supposed to take away from Republicans but the evidence is that Republicans have already established a solid lead in three of the their “sure wins” Arizona CD 1 North Carolina CD 9 and Florida CD 27.
Research shows another 12 to 14 Democrat seats that are more likely Republican pickups than Democrat holds.
The favorability rating of the Republican Party has grown 7 points since last September and now leads the Democrat favorability by 45/44.
An NPR survey showed Democrats’ lead in enthusiasm which they SAID was 11 points is down to 2 points; but hidden in the survey report was the fact that the poll found only one group whose enthusiasm to vote was down and that was Democrat women who now trail Republican women by 4 points in enthusiasm to vote.
Unemployment is at a 49 year low at 3.7%.
Consumer Confidence is at a 17 year high.
A survey of people 15 to 26 AND their parents found 50% of kids thought their family finances were good while 60% of their parents said their family finances were good.
A very leftist feminist website was shocked to find just 28% of millennial women believe abortion is right in all cases and 28% believe abortion is never right.
Donald Trump is making good on his promise to campaign hard all over the country.
He has become the face of the Republican Party.
This brings to mind a story about Trump’s sister the judge saying this about her brother, "I learned at an early age never to compete with Donald because he always wins.”
By a crushing 28 points independents polled by CNN (no less) say they disapprove of the way Democrats treated Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Independent voters make up an important number of all voters in several key states:
Arizona – 35%
California -21%
Colorado – 35%
Connecticut – 42%
Florida – 22%
Kansas – 33%
Maryland – 18%
North Carolina – 26%
New Hampshire – 43%
New Jersey -47%
Nevada – 18%
Oregon – 27%
Pennsylvania – 13%
West Virginia – 19%
Rhode Island - 50%
Are these just disjointed coincidences or “straws in the wind” pointing toward a big Republican night in November?
You have the data now what say you?
California illegals became “undecided” because the left just lost the supreme court, and therefore lost the ability to block immigration and voting laws from being enforced through judicial decrees.
Best “October Surprise” ever.
I say you need to write more great analysis
I take it that the expression “Straws in the wind” means
“Possible indicators”. I hadn’t heard that term before.
“I say you need to write more great analysis”
I’ll 2nd that!
red wave
If we can continue to get clips from Nancy Pelosi, this helps. Maxine Waters, and the Clintons. This is helping Donald Trump. Now Diane Feinstein. They really have a lot of old horses in this race and the only young horses in the race are running the wrong direction on the race track. This too helps. CNN does us all a favor by their continual non stop Trump bashing. You would think that experts in media would get them to once in awhile make a positive comment to make it appear that they are not biased. But....more good news in October will help boost those on the Trump Train.
Good analysis. Remember it’s TRADITIONAL political wisdom that the incumbent party loses during mid terms. The problem with that is that the parties build their strategies assuming this to be true. NOT Trump. He’s turned tradition on it’s head. He’s not of the opinion that his party has to lose. If his party loses, he loses. And he doesn’t lose.
Straws in the wind!
Good job - the Dems are demoralized and all they can do is try to stir up the same frenzy that just knocked them on their butts...which will insure the repubs stay energized because it has never been so apparent as to what the dems would like to do.
Good job, great post, I pray your analysis is spot-on come November 2018 and 2020.
Other than those, I thought the Rat talk of taking the House wishful thinking. Just as the RATs held the House for many years, I think the House is now "naturally" Repub.
I’d add the data point: Replies on the UK “Sun” have from 20% Trump supporters to 80%.
Talk about delusional: 
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