Posted on 08/06/2020 10:37:02 AM PDT by Red Badger
Will young, Black Americans turn out to vote in November?
ost political analysts define “swing voters” as those who swing their support from one party to the other between election cycles – determining winners and losers in the process.
According to this conventional wisdom, the “swingiest” voters are working-class whites in the Midwest, who supposedly hold the keys to the White House.
Meanwhile, by contrast, pundits often portray Black Americans as an undifferentiated mass – loyal Democrat-supporting foot soldiers who will execute their mission for The Team on Tuesday as long as some preacher provides the right marching orders on Sunday.
If these depictions have not already expired, they are certainly growing stale. Having studied electoral trends for decades, we can tell you that those undecided voters of the past are an endangered species – in the Midwest and elsewhere. These days, the only choice that most Americans make – indeed, the choice that typically “swings” the election outcome — is whether to vote at all.
That brings us to the characterization of Black Americans as Democratic loyalists.
Our new survey of 1,215 African Americans in battleground states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – reveals that while those over 60 remain among the most reliable of Democratic voters, and those between 40-59 are still pretty locked in as well, those under 30 (whom we oversampled to comprise half of our sample) are anything but.
Not sold on Biden
Only 47% of those Black Americans under 30 years old that we surveyed plan to vote for the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden. That’s roughly the same percentage who have anything positive to say when asked what “one or two words come to mind” about the former vice president.
Cathy Cohen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago who studies Black youths’ political views, summed up this attitude in a recent podcast: “They’ve seen the election of Black mayors, they’ve seen the election of the first Black president, and they’ve also seen that their lives have not changed.”
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Young Black Americans and the November election
As Black Americans ages 18 to 29 look to the presidential election, a survey of those who live in key battleground states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina – shows they aren't as enthusiastic about the candidates, or voting, as many people might expect.
Views on the candidates:
Have anything positive to say about Joe Biden 46%
Plan to vote for Joe Biden in the general election 47%
Have anything positive to say about Donald Trump 5%
Plan to vote for Donald Trump in the general election 8%
Voting plans:
Trust their state to report their vote accurately 64%
Plan to vote by mail 30%
Probably or definitely won't vote in the general election 31%
Say voting 'doesn’t make a difference anyway' 49%
Views on the political parties:
Say the Democratic Party is welcoming to Black Americans 47%
Say the Republican Party is welcoming to Black Americans 28%
View the Democratic Party as more welcoming than the Republican Party 51%
Trust Democrats in Congress to do what's best for Black Americans 44%
Trust Republicans in Congress to do what's best for Black Americans 29%
Trust Democrats more than Republicans to do what's best for Black Americans 48%
Survey taken July 1-9, 2020; sample size 593 under 30; margin of error ±5%
Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND Source: David Barker, Sam Fulwood III, Leonard Steinhorn, American University Get the data
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Not sold on voting
These young Black Americans may well sit things out in November, just as many of them did in 2016 when their behavior swung that election to Trump as much as anything else did.
In our poll, 31% of Black Americans under 30 say they probably won’t vote in this election. That may sound pretty good, given the average U.S. voter turnout of around 60% in recent elections.
But survey respondents of all stripes tend to wildly overestimate their intention to vote. Indeed, about half of our Black survey respondents under 30 say they don’t often vote because it “doesn’t make a difference,” providing a somewhat more realistic estimate of the percentage who will probably just stay home – and not search for a stamp to mail in their ballot, either.
And that number does not even take into account the turnout-depressing effects of voter suppression efforts taking place across the country, the pandemic or the heavy distrust of mail-in voting that young Black people tend to express. Only 64% of young people in our sample say they trust the state to report their vote accurately, and only 30% say they plan to take advantage of mail-in voting.
Not sold on the Democratic Party
Such cynicism on the part of young Black Americans is reflected in the lukewarm feelings they tend to have toward the Democratic Party more generally.
Only 47% of them say that the party is welcoming to Black Americans, and only 43% say they trust Democrats in Congress to do what’s best for the Black community. Perhaps most strikingly, unlike their older counterparts, only half of those under 30 view the Democrats as any better than the Republicans on these scores.
[Deep knowledge, daily. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.]
In both the survey responses and in the focus groups we conducted of young Black Americans in these same states, we heard repeated frustration toward what they view as a Democratic Party that expects their vote but doesn’t really do anything to deserve it other than claim to be “less racist” than the alternative.
As one of our focus group respondents put it, “I think at the end of the day, they all have the same agenda.”
In short, it appears that for Black America, the future is not necessarily “blue.” Electorally speaking, it is not necessarily anything at all. Moving forward, young Black Americans may be the real “swing voters” in the only way that term really makes much sense anymore.
David C. Barker
Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University School of Public Affairs Sam Fulwood III
Fellow, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University
Disclosure statement
David C. Barker currently receives funding from the Hewlett Foundation and the National Science Foundation for other projects. For this project, we received funding from The Hub Project.
Sam Fulwood III is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he studies race, politics and public policy.
What are the percentages of:
Plan to pick up a new tv at the late night protest?
Plan to burn down their own neighborhood?
Hate whitey because they were told to do so?
BLEXIT needs conservative, patriot support.
PDJT needs to get Candace Owens out front a LOT.
If they don’t vote for Biden, they ain’t Black...
“Say the Democratic Party is welcoming to Black Americans 47%, Say the Republican Party is welcoming to Black Americans 28%, View the Democratic Party as more welcoming than the Republican Party 51%, Trust Democrats in Congress to do what’s best for Black Americans 44%, Trust Republicans in Congress to do what’s best for Black Americans 29%, Trust Democrats more than Republicans to do what’s best for Black Americans 48%”
I wonder if these sort of numbers were that good bit higher for the Dems a few years back (and lower for the Republicans, of course)? If so, this really not a good thing for the Democrats.
Go figure. The Democratic party & their academic & media mouthpieces spend the last couple decades demonizing “old white men” as the problem, and then they expect enthusiasm among their base for electing the whitest, most geriatric guy imaginable? As Slow Joe says, come on, man!
99%
99%
100%.................................
As such, Trump tops out at 10%, depending on black voter turnout. If they get enthused about the DEM VP candidate or black sentiment across all blacks in the US takes a further move that is anti-white, Trump will be lucky to get 8% again.
Looks like they're a bunch of cocaine junkies who are not really black. #bidenflashback
not sold means they want more...................
Kanye to the rescue!! GO KANYE!!!
5% had something positive to say about Trump. 5%. It’s the same old garbage every 4 years. Lots of articles on how blacks have changed but they never do and never will.
perhaps the men will go 20% or even 25% for Trump because they think he’s a tough guy
But for black woman, the government is their kids’ father and their husband. We will never get them
“But for black woman, the government is their kids’ father and their husband. We will never get them.”
Except that for most moms, security and safety is big, naturally. These BLM riots are disturbing to them, their local pols aren’t stopping it (they’re even reducing police) and they know that Trump is for law and order, for safety.
I hope you are right
I hear complaints about food stamps..snap being cut from the ones I know
Soon as Biden’s black VP is announced, they’ll be back onboard.
President Trump needs to introduce Anthony Brian Logan at a rally. The guy is great. Watch him on YouTube.
Just like democrats that formed the KKK, biden hates black Americans ....
Young blacks have nothing to lose - it's time to give Trump a chance...
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