Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Ok folks, things are getting crazy again. Buckle up.

Globalism / Great Reset -

High costs of living are driving people to protest in the streets against crippling prices. The BBC has mapped all reported demonstrations over fuel since January 2021, revealing a huge increase in protests this year.
Fuel costs affect many aspects of daily life - personal travel, transportation of goods, energy for electricity and heating.
Around the world demonstrators have called for change. They’ve demanded that petrol be made more affordable or available at all.
They’ve sat in peaceful protests and they’ve attacked governments.

OBSERVATION – GGR is a global threat and is targeting the global economy, the most sensitive are fuel prices and the associated increasing cost of living. In the US we have largely avoided similar protests, but we are not out of the woods IMHO with winter coming on and potential power/heating shortages.

Wuhan virus -

Boston University did not create a new, more lethal strain of COVID-19 in its laboratory.
At least that is what the University is saying after reports, such as this Fox News report which was spread widely, claimed that is exactly what researchers did at the school.
Boston University is, in fact, studying the virus and it says it is doing so “to help fight against future pandemics.”

BU admits that it did combine the omicron variant’s spike protein with the original virus for testing on mice. And, at first glance, the tests do sound a bit ominous. Because, according to reports, when the researchers infected mice with the BA.1 omicron variant they mostly had mild cases and survived. But when they gave them the original COVID-19 virus with the new omicron spike protein 80-percent of the mice died.
BU insists that there was nothing dangerous happening
“First, this research is not gain-of-function research, meaning it did not amplify the Washington state SARS-COV-2 virus strain (original virus from 2020) or make it more dangerous,” BU said in a statement, calling online reports Monday “false and inaccurate.”
“In fact, this research made the virus replicate less dangerous,” the university said.
A university representative told NBC10 Boston Tuesday that, had their been “evidence that the research was gaining function, under both [National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] and our own protocols, we would immediately stop and report.

OBSERVATION – Yeh, right. Skepticism meter is pegged on this one.

A CDC committee will convene this week and likely vote Thursday to deliver permanent legal indemnity to Pfizer and Moderna, through the process of adding the drug companies’ mRNA injections to the child and adolescent immunization schedules.
By adding the shots to the childhood schedule, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) will transfer liability for vaccine injuries to the federal government’s National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP), allowing for Pfizer and Moderna to finally bring an FDA approved shot to the market without opening itself up to lawsuits. Moreover, it will act as another windfall for companies that have already brought in hundreds of billions of dollars in revenues, by requiring these vaccinations for children who attend public schools.

In March 2020, the federal government invoked the PREP Act, which gave Pfizer and Moderna a tort liability shield due to the declared “public health emergency,” which the government is reportedly going to revoke in early 2023. The companies’ emergency use authorization shots have since been protected by the federal government through this 2005 congressional action.

OBSERVATION – Not sure how iron clade this is. Many drugs have been targeted for lawsuits that were also under this ‘shield’. Will have to see how the lawfare plays out on this. But no matter what, such a bandaid by the CDC to cover the lethality of mRNA wuhan ‘vaccines’ is despicable.

Economy –

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.

OBSERVATION – This is news the biden regime will try to keep under wraps for as long as it can- at least past the midterms. The Fed is on course for another 75 point increase in the prime at its next meeting after the midterms.

Biden said that the Administration would look to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the coming years at a price point between $67 to $72 per barrel. Current futures have oil priced above $72 until at least 2024. Unnamed Biden officials also reported that the administration would continue to release from the SPR into next year if conditions warrant.

OBSERVATION – Right, that and 25 cents used to get you a coke out of the vending machine. Biden also demands oil companies hike production and investment into oil exploration while maintaining an “appropriate price” for consumers. This is in a backdrop of the administration’s demonstrated distain of the industry and efforts to produce conditions that are negative for future investiments.

Barge operators on the Mississippi River continue to struggle with low water levels. A section of the river was shut down yesterday while dredging machines tried to clear sand following a number of ground barges. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, some 700 barges backed up during the wait. Barge companies ordered a further reduction to operating drafts, which will reduce cargo volumes.(FO)

OBSERVATION – Barge traffic is becoming more hit and miss as river levels continue to decline. With La Niña drought conditions expected to continue into next year, shipping slowdowns will also continue, resulting in shortages and higher prices.

According to Bloomberg News, biden is considering an EO that will seriously impact the importation of aluminum from Russia. There are reportedly three options: An outright ban, expanding tariffs to levels that would impose an effective ban, and or sanctioning the country’s top metal producer, United Co. Rusal International PJSC.

OBSERVATION – Aluminum refining requires a lot of electricity. The Pacific Northwest used to have a lot of smelters because of the one time surplus of hydroelectrical power. Over the years, aluminum plants have closed down due to increasing electrical prices and more stringent regulations. Restoration of the aluminum industry in the US will not be something that happens overnight. Consider all the things made from Aluminum and you can readily see how this will nail our economy.

Invasion of Illegals -

NYC has set up a tent city to house the illegals being bussed in from the south.

Biden / Harris watch -

The U.S. State Department on Tuesday walked back remarks questioning Pakistan’s ability to keep its nuclear weapons safe by leftist President Joe Biden, who went as far as to call the South Asian nation, a nominal ally of America’s, “one of the most dangerous nations in the world.”
Offering disorganized remarks commenting on nuclear weapons generally, Biden mentioned Pakistan amid boasting yet again that he has a close personal relationship with dictator Xi Jinping of China.
“I’ve spent more time with Xi Jinping than any person in — any head of state in Amer- — in the world,” Biden rambled, again making the dubious claim that he had traveled 17,000 miles with the genocidal leader, which earned him three out four “Pinocchios” from the Washington Post last year.

OBSERVATION - Another clean up on aisle 3. Another day, another walk back of biden’s proclamations.

POLITICAL FRONT -

According to Politico analysis, 10 House races have moved more firmly towards Republicans, while several other ‘likely Democrat’ contests are now considered “toss ups”. Democrats have seemingly abandoned House races in Arizona and Wisconsin, according to Politico.

OBSERVATION – The repeal of Roe v Wade gave the democrats a dead cat bounce over the summer. Economic and other social realities continue to be front and center in the voter’s minds - and that appears to be strongly swinging Republican.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

(H/T Drago) Cause unknown as of yet, but airliners have been experiencing loss of gps signals in the Texas region.

Cyber Warfare -

Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced new requirements for passenger and freight rail lines and carriers to implement a cyber security plan to mitigate the risk of cyber attacks. The new directive forces rail companies to develop a “TSA-approved Cybersecurity Implementation Plan” to monitor and detect intrusions, segment networks to ensure that Operational Technology can function in the event that Information Technology becomes compromised, and patch security vulnerabilities. (FO)

China –

Extremely heavy rain brought by Tropical Storm “Nesat” over the weekend hit parts of Taiwan, causing huge agricultural losses. The worst affected were farmers in the northern and northeastern parts of the country.

OBSERVATION – In a time where there is a global food shortage, smaller countries cannot afford to lose any crops.

North/South Korea -

North Korea’s military says it fired artillery shots (250 rounds) in the buffer zone as ‘warning’ over S. Korea’s ongoing military drills

Japan -

Japan’s Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned yesterday that the Japanese government would take all necessary steps “to halt speculator-driven currency moves,” including market interventions to stabilize the yen.

OBSERVATION – The Yen is taking hits from the strong dollar, and that Japan may be covertly supporting the yen against the dollar in order to head off an economic crisis.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Russia may be planning another major withdrawal from the Kherson Oblast in an effort to consolidate defenses east of the Dnipir River.

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Putin is holding a special Security Council meeting today, and the upper house of Russia’s parliament will sit in session — a sign that a war policy shift is imminent. This may well be in regards to the apparent breakdown of the situation in Kherson.

Putin has declared martial law in the occupied regions of Ukraine as officials begin evacuating civilians from the city of Kherson, with a battle for control of the stronghold now looming. Putin said the order will come into effect early Thursday in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions - giving him sweeping powers to curtail the freedoms of civilians and press-gang Ukrainians into his army to fight against their fellow countrymen.
He announced the decision shortly after Sergei Surovikin, Russia’s new commander in Ukraine, said the situation in Kherson is ‘tense’.

NUKE WATCH -
Speculation has been growing that Putin could be preparing some kind of nuclear show of force, potentially including the first open-air detonation of an atomic weapon since the 1960s, which ramped up after UK defence secretary Ben Wallace was summoned to last-minute talks at the Pentagon yesterday.
Experts believe Putin may detonate a nuke at a remote testing ground or above the Black Sea to prove that Russia’s huge but ageing stockpile of warheads still works.

Kerch Bridge update -
Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin stated on October 18 that authorities will complete dismantling the damaged spans of the Crimean bridge by the end of December 2022 indicating that Russian forces will likely have reduced logistics capabilities through Crimea for months.

OBSERVATION – This is a huge blow to the Russian logistics support of the entire southern theatre – from Kherson east to at least Melitiopol.

RUMINT –
Russian withdrawal from portions of Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir river.

Logistics –
- Iranian trainers have been identified in Belarus and Crimea instructing Russians on the use of the drones they have acquired.

- Russian railways are running low on cassette bearings and have taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk. This is serious, since Russia is heavily dependent on rail transport.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Tensions growing between Russian minorities and poor against ethninc Russians and the rich as the ‘mobilization’ has hit these regions more severely than the other. The shoot out during training in Belarus is just the tip of the iceberg on the tensions.

Economic Impact -
- Russia is reportedly experiencing a serious shortage of ball bearing for rail road trucks. Russia depends heavily on rail transport and tens of thousands of rail cars have been taken out of service due to bearing issues. Upwards of 200,000 other rail cars are potentially threatened with being taken off line as well in the near future.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

RUMINT –
Fog of War is obscuring the extent of a Ukranian offensive in Kherson.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Khereson offensive has taken on a whole new sense of imminency this morning following statements by the “Special Operations” general (Armageddon) Surovikin’s speech that suggests Russia may cede much of Kherson back to the Ukraine under the guise of an impending Ukrainian attack on the Kakhovska dam. Other Russian sources have announced evacuations and impending offense as well. Will breakout below.

Russia launched another wave of 10 missile strikes, and 14 strike drones in over 10 settlements.

Another day, another failed Russian attack on the Bakhmut region.

Kyiv front ——
Missiles and drones hit residential and power grid targets in the area.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered missile and artillery attacks in the region

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian forces launched a limited attack at the border northeast of Kharkiv that was repulsed.

Donetsk Oblast ——
More attacks in the Bakhmut sector with little to no success. Most intense attacks in the areas south of the city. Most intense artillery fire along the LOC from Donetsk northeast towards Lysychansk.

Crimean front ———
Craziness broke out late yesterday afternoon on multiple sectors. So gonna try to sort it all our for you (and me especially).

Yesterday, Russian General Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin warned about “difficult decisions” lying ahead regarding the city of Kherson itself, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive nears. Future plans depend on “the emerging military-tactical situation.” Too early to tell but the tone of his speech increasingly points to a Russian withdrawal from the city, and possibly a major Ukrainian victory.

At the same time, Occupation authorities in Kherson region of Ukraine declared an evacuation of population from the right bank of Dnipro river, citing threat of destruction Kakhovska dam,. (NOTE – for those unfamiliar with ‘right’ and ‘left’ banks the frame of reference is looking down stream).

Occupation authorities in Kherson region want to move about 60 thousand civilians from the right bank of Dnipro river in 6 days. Images on social media sites show Ukranians lined up awaiting ferries across the Dnipir river. Most of those evacuating are believed to be ethnic Russians and collaborators.
Occupation authorities started to dump water at Kakhovska dam, warning about possible flooding downstream
QUICK OBSERVATION – the flood plain for such a disaster is the LEFT bank as the region around Kherson has high ground on the right overlooking the river. Ukraine also has no weapons to destroy such a massive dam.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians have conducted a complete news blackout on what is happening in the Kherson oblast. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources claim Ukrainian Army opened two fronts at Dudchany and Davydiv Brid in the northeast of Kherson. This would form a pincer, cutting off nearly half of the Russian forces deployed north of Kherson. These are unconfirmed because Russian source have in the past claimed fake Ukranian attacks in order to claim Russian victories in repulsing them.

The combination of a massive civilian evacuation in the face of a potential Russian military route/withdrawal can only amount to one thing – a massive snarl up of the ferry system across the Dnieper River. Some even suggest that this is planned, mixing Russian military in with civilians to use them as shields. Any large scale Russian withdrawal would likely require abandonment of the vast majority of its equipment and supplies.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile and drone attacks across the region.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Things becoming dynamic in Kherson with recent Russian announcements and actions.
Is Surovikin “thinking out of the box” by making a tactical regrouping under cover of human shield?

A lot of guessing at this stage. Clearly Russia is up to something in Kherson. If it is a pull-out/withdrawal, the need some kind of cover story to save face in Moscow. The extended loss of the Kerch Bridge may also be a driving force in these decisions.

Belarus -

Belarusian outlet Nasha Niva receives “signals from all over the country” that men are being summoned to military service. “They invited me to return to the service. They did not explain what the Motherland’s urgent need for me was”, one says
Nasha Niva has also ‘learned’ that even Belarusian schools and university departments are required to form lists of conscripted employees and submit them to the military commissariat.

Covert mobilization of the Belarusian armed forces continues under the guise of training sessions. Measures are being taken to train operators of anti-aircraft missile systems and tank crews. - Ukraine’s General staff

OBSERVATION - Maintaining the OODA loop on Belarus. OSINT and other intelligence agencies are still indicating that Belarus is not about to get into the Ukraine war any more than what they have – being a support base for Russian air force and missile attacks. Some view the current activity an effort to show support for Russian without getting their hands any dirtier.

CRITICAL INTEL REQUIREMENTS –
1. Will Russian mobilized conscripts assume control of Belarus’ armor and tanks to launch a strike towards Kyiv in order to pull resources away from Ukrainian offensives in the south and east
2. Will a joint Belarus/Russian ground attack occur into Ukraine
3. Will Belarus / Russian task forces attack into Poland or Baltics to deflect support from Ukraine.

Russian General Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin is reportedly known for thinking outside of the box. Launching an attack into northern Ukraine would be disastrous given the condition the mobilized conscripts are in. . So far, Russian forces have been conscripts. No evidence of regular forces being brought in from other military districts as were tracked during the build up to the February invasion. Very little armor/tanks have been tracked entering Belarus as well. This lessens the probability of an impeding Russian attack.

But forcing Ukraine to respond could divert enough assets from the offensives in the south and east to give him some breathing space to reorganized defenses and time for better trained (if you call a months worth of training “better”) forces to reach the region along with what ever armor/tanks they can scrape up.

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Europe / NATO General -

Maritime Security Level is raised to Level 2. More North Sea Gas platforms have increased the level of security, including some in the UK Sector.

OBSERVATION – The sabotage of NS 1 & 2 has northern Europe spooked.

Pakistan -

See biden’s insults above

Israel -

In a reversal, Australia’s left-Labor Party government has revoked recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Instead, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Australia would recognize Tel Aviv as Israel’s capital and that Jerusalem’s status must be resolved through peace negotiations between Israel and unspecified Palestinian entities.

OBSERVATION – Watch Australia as bad things tend to happen to countries when stuff like this happens.

Israel’s Prime Minister will speak to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister on Thursday over Ukraine’s request for Israel to supply it with air defense systems, senior Israeli security official (Ynet). Gantz and Netanyahu both have replied negatively towards supplying miliary weapons to Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – The cost benefit analysis is on going for Israel. Cross Russia and endanger operations in Syria against Iran/Hezebollah or supply air defense systems to take out Iranian drones (and eventually missiles) and incurring Russian wrath. Either way, Iran has joined Russia in the war on Ukraine.

Iran -

Riots / protests continue across the country. Some analysts note that there is a potential split developing between the hard core islamists and more moderate elements in the Iranian govt to strip the religious police of their power and allow more liberal rules for women’s clothing.

Venezuela -

Unnamed State Department officials say the U.S. is attempting to force Venezuelan officials to return to negotiations. The officials said the U.S. would approve a request by U.S. oil giant Chevron to operate alongside Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA corporation if the Maduro regime returned to negotiations for free elections.

OBSERVATION - SMH, biden pushing out of country oil production while minimizing domestic production.

There has been such a flood of actions the past couple weeks that I’m reaching a point of saturation. I’m working hard to filter out and find the most critical items but know full well that there are many other actions I’m not reporting that can quickly fester up into a crisis.
I don’t want to overload these posts.
So if you don’t see something here and think it needs to be out there, please post and comment on it.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Touting his Breakthrough Energy Ventures climate-technology (carbon tax) investment company, Gates told CNBC “People did get a little optimistic about how quickly the transition could be done.”“Without the Russian natural gas being available in Europe… it’s a setback,” Gates continued. “We need to find non Russian hydrocarbon sources to substitute for those so there’s coal plants running and variety of things, because, you know, keeping, you know, people warm, keeping those economies in decent shape is a priority,” Gates asserted.
He continued, “Now, on the other hand, it’s good for the long run, because people won’t want to be dependent on Russian natural gas so they’ll move to these new approaches more rapidly.”

OBSERVATION – GGR is relying on chaos to move its agenda forward. It should be clear by now they don’t care what damage is caused, since the elites are insulated from the effects.

Another round of farmer protests could soon be on the way in The Netherlands following an announcement that as many as 600 farms throughout the country may get seized for “polluting” the environment with nitrogen.
Former deputy prime minister Johan Remkes , meanwhile, is defending his proposals – though he admits they come at a cost. He says under the EU’s so-called “green” agenda, “the Netherlands will be locked up because it will be legally almost impossible to issue permits. Not for houses, not for farms, not for roads.”
“I write this with a heavy heart, but I see no other way,” Remkes said. “I don’t expect the agricultural sector will be happy with this report.”

OBSERVATION – Netherlands going from buying out to forcibly seizing properties. Note that the GGR will use force if necessary. This will trigger serious protests as farmers say this is clearly a red line.

Economy –

Increasing inflation in spite of a drop in fuel prices has the Fed in focused on doubling down on more rate increases despite worsening economic outlooks outlined in the Beige Book. Indicators are the Fed is looking at more rate increases in November and December. Fed officials also left open the possibility that rate hikes would continue next year after reaching 4.5-4.75% if “underlying” inflation continues to climb. That’s a full point higher than what the Fed was pushing for earlier this year, which shows a high level of concern on inflation. Some indicators that the Fed may actually move planned rate increases for 2023 INTO 2022 – which would be increases in Nov and Dec in excess of one basis point.

As word of the Feds “what if” scenarios thru 2023, there are concerns about the Treasury market, China’s zero wuhan policy, other supply bottlenecks. Bottom line is that the Fed is going to weight inflation higher than these other issues – increasing the risk of the creation of deep recession.

OBSERVATION – Economic conditions are not as they have been in the past leading up to a recession. Biden’s policies and the wuhan dumpster fire have stripped key elements to the bare bone – with little left to withstand a severe economic downturn.

JPMorgan analysts are forecasting oil prices remain at $100/bbl in Q4 of 2022 and $98/bbl in 2023.

OBSERVATION – See Fed what ifs. This will not result in a decrease in inflation.

More on oil, Biden’s energy secretary tells CNN releasing millions of barrels of fuel from the strategic reserve is necessary because country is on a ‘wartime footing.’

OBSERVATION – SMH, either too stupid to belong in the position or else deliberately lying to mislead the public.

BIG OBSERVATION – Should there be another arab oil embargo – we are screwed.

MORE on fuel issues. There is a growing crisis gripping the US diesel, as demand is surging while supplies remain at the lowest seasonal level for this time of year ever, according to government data released Wednesday.
According to the EIA, the US now has just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008; and while inventories are record low, the four-week rolling average of distillates supplied - a proxy for demand - rose to its highest seasonal level since 2007.

The historic diesel crunch comes just weeks ahead of the midterm elections and will almost certainly drive up prices for consumers who already view inflation and the economy as a top voting issue. Retail prices have been steadily climbing for more than two weeks. At $5.324 a gallon, they’re 50% higher than this time last year, according to AAA data.
Wholesale diesel prices in the spot market of New York harbor, a key pricing point, have surged this week to more than $200 per barrel. Excluding a brief interval from late April into mid-May, that would be a record high.

OBSERVATION – Diesel is one of the life bloods of the economy. High costs hit the consumer many times over in numerous cases. High diesel raises the price of agriculture, which adds cost to shipping agriculture products to factories, which adds again to the costs of shipping to distribution centers and eventually to stores. What is dangerous is the very low stockage levels. Should a national emergency hit, there will be very little wiggle room for response and recovery.

Container traffic is down, waaaay down which has contributed to the reduction in the wait time at ports on the west coast. This reflects primarly a decrease in orders by companies in anticipation of a recession (don’t want to get stuck with overpriced inventory). This is threatened by the specter of a potential rail road strike in the December (Christmas) time frame. A strike would throw the whole supply distribution chain into more turmoil.

Invasion of Illegals -

The federal government is demanding the state remove double-stacked shipping containers placed to fill gaps in the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, saying they are unauthorized and violate U.S. law.
The Bureau of Reclamation also demanded in last week’s letter that no new containers be placed. It said the bureau wants to prevent conflicts with two federal contracts that have been awarded and two more still pending to fill border wall gaps near the Morelos Dam in the Yuma, Arizona, area.
“The unauthorized placement of those containers constitutes a violation of federal law and is a trespass against the United States,” the letter states. “That trespass is harming federal lands and resources and impeding Reclamation’s ability to perform its mission.”

ARIZONA’S RESPONSE –
Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s spokesman told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday evening that Washington’s latest proposal in the fight over securing the border in western Arizona is not something the state will even consider.
“The suggestion by any federal bureaucracy, that we take action to make the border easier to cross, is completely unacceptable. Gov. Ducey takes the responsibility to protect Arizona very seriously — that’s why we put up these containers,” said Ducey’s communications director, C.J. Karamargin, in a call Wednesday evening. “What they’re suggesting, that we take them down and make Arizona less safe, is a nonstarter.”
The outright refusal on Arizona’s part is the latest move in a game of chess between state and federal officials over border security, a matter that is the responsibility of the federal government.

OBSERVATION – File this also under CW2. The failure to secure the border by the feds is prompting states to literally fill in the gaps. The feds may launch legal challenges but that will take time and AZ (as well as other states) can play the delay game like biden has with the courts. Seriously doubt the Feds will try to forcibly remove the barriers either – that would create a serious confrontation and may even require the feds use a force other than the border patrol (who likely supports AZ on this)- perhaps federal marshals. Overt disobedience by states towards the feds are expected to increase – watch for even more so if the red wave really comes home.

BTW – “. “That trespass is harming federal lands and resources and impeding Reclamation’s ability to perform its mission.”” BurRec’s mission is water supply – NOT border control.

Biden / Harris watch -

Biden cited God in a speech he delivered on Tuesday night at the Howard Theatre in Washington, D.C. in regards to abortion
“And come this November, we’re going to see what happens all over America, God willing,” said Biden.

OBSERVATION – I’m sure God isn’t aligning with biden et al on this subject.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Far Left activists are signaling opposition to a House bill known as the “Stop the Sexualization of Children Act.” The bill intends to strip federal funding of any hospital, school, or other organization presenting lewd genitals or gender ideology descriptions to children under 10.

OBSERVATION – Antifa et al has become more anarchic, searching for a purpose. Support for the trans/LGBT agenda has been one of those areas. However, this action is unlikely to generate massive support and turnout.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Critics point out that while PayPal rescinded its misinformation policy, the company still maintains a $2,500 “liquidation” policy against accounts accused of “discrimination,” “hatred” and “intolerance.” PayPal is now facing a Republicans launched inquiry.

OBSERVATION – This investigation won’t gain traction during this session of congress, but if republicans take control after midterms, then things will get hot for PayPal as well as other big tech internet companies.

POLITICAL FRONT –
The Michigan-based election software company Konnech filed a defamation lawsuit against the Texas-based group True the Vote in September. True the Vote had accused the company of being both “owned by the Chinese Communist Party” and involved in “subversion of our elections.” Konnech denied the allegations, though its credibility is now in doubt.
On October 4, Konnech CEO Eugene Yu, who lived in China until 1986, was arrested on suspicion of data theft, having allegedly stored “critical information that [U.S. election] workers provided on servers in China.”
Prosecutor Eric Neff suggested that the crimes allegedly committed by Konnech and Yu amounted to the “largest data breach in United States history.”
Yu was charged again last week for grand theft by embezzlement of funds exceeding $2.6 million. (Britbart)

OBSERVATION – This coming out prior to the elections – hard for the MSM to keep under wraps.
Yes Virginia, there was and is vote fraud.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Two more bombers were deployed to Guam, bringing the number to four. Increase believed to be in response to N Korea’s activity.

China –

U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations Mike Gilday warned that new estimates show a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan could happen in 2023 and possibly even before the end of 2022.

OBSERVATION – This is a worse case scenario. Post-pelosi, China has substantially stepped up its air and sea presence around the island and testing innovative ways to get men and material across the strait. All these actions serve to generate a level of normalcy and mask actual preparations for an assault. Classical example is the surprise attack on Israel in 1973 (Yon Kippur War) China has demonstrated the capability to emplace a form of a blockade which I think would be more likely in the short term. A war would stress the Chinese economy - particularly the sanctions involved. Xi in his CCP speech indicated that invasion has not been ruled out.

EXAMPLE of ongoing increased air/sea presence around Taiwan. Taiwan Ministry of Defense reported that 20 PLA aircraft and 3 PLAN vessels around our surrounding region were detected today (Oct. 20, 2022)

At the 20th National CCP Congress, Xi Jinping adopted the proposed list of preliminary nominees to the Central Committee, the CCPs core political leadership group. Xi also approved the preliminary list of nominees to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection – the party’s anti-corruption watchdog. The anti-corruption unit is one of the primary security vehicles for removing political opponents in the Central Committee and Chinese government. Xi used the anti-corruption unit to remove several powerful rivals ahead of this year’s CCP Congress. Xi’s approval of the list indicates he is still firmly in control of the power elements within the CCP. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Xi is coming out of the congress even stronger, this in spite of economic woes and wuhan shutdowns.

North/South Korea -

North Korea’s military said it has ordered its troops to fire more artillery shells off its east and west coasts in response to South Korea’s firing of rounds from multiple rocket launchers

Japan –

Unconfirmed reports that the Japanese military has devised a plan to use kamikaze drones to strike enemy landing forces and vessels in the event of an invasion of the nation’s remote territories, according to local media.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

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Putin passed a decree on October 19 which set the blame on Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov for future payment issues with military personnel.

The Russian Foreign Ministry put out a statement saying the continued supply of arms to Ukraine makes the European Union part of the conflict

NUKE WATCH -
Getting inside of putin’s mind and thought processes is essential to understanding the potential that he will order a nuclear strike of some kind in the near future. Found the following document that I’m still wrapping my mind around.

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

Their assessment of what needs to happen is pretty bleak -
“But to mitigate against Putin’s initiation of such a spiral and ultimately prevent Russian nuclear use, the US and its NATO allies must be prepared to climb that escalatory conventional ladder and respond, leaving no ambiguity with Putin of the consequences. In the event Putin is detected deploying tactical nuclear weapons into theater, this could include moving sufficient NATO combat air power along with Combat Controllers to guide weapons to their targets, other special forces operators, expanded U.S. air defense, and missile capable naval combatants and the like into theater, which would respond to Putin’s nuclear use by destroying his forces in Ukraine. But keeping the engagement localized, not extending even to Crimea, might reduce Putin’s obligation to escalate still further.”

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s “released a missile in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint”. Rivet Joint patrols were suspended, the Russians blamed a “technical malfunction” for the missile being released (?!). Patrols have restarted but the Rivet Joints are now escorted by fighter jets, MPs have been told.

OBSERVATION – Earlier this week some on the OSINT side noted that British Typhoon fighters were accompanying a British R135 Rivet Joint mission over the Black Sea - noted as unusual. Various speculation, but none that identified a potential Russian missile launch against earlier missions.

RUMINT –
Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast.

Logistics –
- Russia has lost many aircraft since the invasion commenced, more than 400 manned aircraft including helicopters and more than 1000 UAVs according to most Ukrainian reports
- Confirmed visual losses of armor and tanks now exceed 2000.
- Enough T-62 tanks have been captured by Ukraine (excluding those destroyed) in recent weeks to fill a tank battalion.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued Iranian drone attacks striking several towns and electrical grid. Ukraine will start restricting electricity supplies across the country on Thursday after Russia knocked out more power plants, a senior aide to President Zelensky said on Wednesday. - Reuters
Action in Kherson Oblast still unclear. No specific word on the Ukrainian offensive, but there is a lot of rumbling about just what Russia is up to. Finally, information coming out about the WW1 style defensive line being constructed in the east.

Indian citizens currently in Ukraine advised to leave as soon as possible - Indian Embassy in Ukraine

OBSERVATION – This is the latest in countries warning their citizens to leave the country – sparking more speculation that they have been tipped off to something nasty coming from Russia. This is unusual given that we are now nearly 9 months into the war.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia launched minor attacks across the border north of Khrkiv. Ukraine offensive towards Saratov and Kreminna appears to have slowed substantially, likely due to poor weather and muddy conditions.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia continues to attempt to force a breakthrough along the LOC from Donetsk to north of Bahkmut.

More information on the WW1 style defensive line being constructed is coming out. NOTE – not completely confirmed. According to Prigozhin’s RIA FAN, this is a map of the defensive line Wagner (the ‘Wagner Line”) is building in the Donbas.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffd0EUUWYAE90cm?format=jpg&name=360x360

Looks like they are prepared to surrender the north with little resistance. The big flaw in this defensive arrangement however is a breakthrough to the north could render the entire line along the river meaningless.

Crimean front ———
Still little information on the extent of the offensive in northern Kherson Oblast. Ukraine has continued to strike Russian pontoon bridges across the Dnipir and ferry sites which continue to isolate Russian forces west of the river.

Russia is still encouraging evacuation of communities along the west bank of the Dnipir under the cover of an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Kakhovka dam. Some analysts suspect that Russia is setting up a false flag event to take out the dam, which would further harm the Ukrainian power grid and cover a retreat across the Dnipir River.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile and drone attacks across the region.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Maelstrom of conflicting information on the Kherson offensive and Russian pull out. I view Russian statements with a great deal of skepticism. Russia has provided a ‘civilian’ deadline of about 5 days from today suggesting something is a foot. Speculation is raging that the Kakhovka dam may be blown up by Russia as a ‘false flag’ event. Some speculation to the wild side suggests the region is potentially targeted for a tactical nuke strike – hit the concentrated Ukrainian forces. Still too much chaff to clearly sort stuff out.

FWIW, I don’t see much change in the activity level. Wet weather is settling in and will impact Ukraine’s mobile warfare while ruining what little morale Russian forces have left.

Belarus -

Lukashenko calls Poland the most aggressive state in relation to Belarus and the main initiator of a nuclear war - Radio Svaboda

OBSERVATION – The recent military activity in Belarus and a lot of the rhetoric coming out appears to be largely directed at Poland, with some towards the Baltic states. Lukashenko may be afraid to enter the Ukraine war directly, but would he pick a fight with Poland?

General consensus is that Belarus/Russia are posturing on the potential invasion version 2.0 from the north.

Europe / NATO General -

British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned Thursday — bowing to the inevitable after a tumultuous six-week term in which her policies triggered turmoil in financial markets and a rebellion in her party obliterated her authority. According to NBC News, Truss now holds the title of shortest-serving prime minister in British history, a title previously held by Geroge Canning, who lasted 119 days in the early 19th century.

Israel -

Israel getting push back from the European community over its reluctance to supply war materials to Ukriane. It is being pointed out that when Israel was in need, the west helped out. Now its Israel’s turn.

Iran -

Iran Protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Anti-regime groups called for protests on October 26, which will mark 40 days since Mahsa Amini’s death. Iranians commonly hold a commemoration on the 40th day after a person’s death and protest organizations may seek to use this date to reignite demonstrations.

Isfahan, central Iran Workers of the Entekhab Industrial Group are on strike. This is the 35th day of the nationwide uprising against the mullahs’ government

Yesterday - swamped
Today – relatively light.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Australia’s Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has partnered with Cogo, a “carbon management solutions” company, to launch the new feature, which is part of CBA’s online banking platform.
The bank gives the customer the option to “pay a fee” to offset their carbon footprint, with the average listed as 1,280 kilograms, a long way from the ‘sustainable’ figure of 200 kilograms
While initially presented as a handy way for someone to track their consumption habits and the supposed impact they have on the environment, some fear that such schemes could one day become mandatory and place limits on purchases of customers who exceed their ‘carbon allowance.’ Carbon units would be “deducted from the personal budget with every payment of transport fuel, home-heating fuels and electricity bills,” and anyone going over the limit would be forced to purchase additional units in the personal carbon market from those with excess to sell.”

OBSERVATION – As I’ve noted in the past, Australia is one of the beta test countries for the GGR. What they do here may well be applied on a global basis in the future.

Economy –

Reading the tea leaves, factory activity in the Philadelphia area declined for the second consecutive month in October even while inflationary pressures were more widespread, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday.
The indexes for current general activity and new orders both remained negative for the month and the shipments index remains low but still in positive territory. Despite sagging demand, the measures of inflation worsened and demand for labor increased, suggesting a stagflationary environment.

OBSERVATION – All the numbers are mixed, some good, some bad. However the big word of worry is stagflation.

China –

Taiwan Ministry of Defense reported that 20 PLA aircraft and 3 PLAN vessels were detected

OBSERVATION – Continued high levels of air and sea probes by China. Remember when it was only an aircraft or two..

TikTok has denied a report that a China-based team at its parent company ByteDance planned to use the app to track the locations of US citizens.
The social media giant said on Twitter that it has never been used to “target” the American government, activists, public figures or journalists.
The firm also says it does not collect precise location data from US users.
It was responding to a report in Forbes that data would have been accessed without users’ knowledge or consent.

OBSERVATION – Covert individual tracking is pervasive throughout the smart phone market. There is virtually no way to shut off tracking algorithms. This is on top of privacy issues.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********

Kerch Bridge update –
New video showing the ongoing repair work on the Crimea Bridge. Currently they are disassembling the spans that did not collapse into the water. The two completely collapsed spans are still in place where they fell.

Logistics –
- Since February 2022 Russia has lost nearly 4,000 tanks and other armored vehicles in Ukraine as well as nearly a thousand other specialized vehicles, including towed artillery.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- There will be a one-month delay in Russia’s usual autumn conscription cycle ... was ordered because Putin’s “partial mobilization is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that oversee the semiannual conscription cycle.” NOTE – most of the individuals eligible for this conscription cycle may have fled the country to avoid the mobilization.
- Bashkir nationalists have announced the creation of armed resistance. Media reports. The partisans demanded to stop the partial mobilization in Bashkortostan, which, in their opinion, is “an act of the hidden ethnocide of the autochthonous population”. The offices of Duma parties and military recruitment offices are set on fire in the republic, and men are encouraged to go into hiding and prepare to fight.
“Bashkir, member of a Turkic people, numbering more than 1,070,000 in the late 20thC, settled in the eastern part of European Russia, between the Volga River & the Ural Mountains, & beyond the Urals...main territory is Bashkortostan, where they are far outnumbered by Russians.”

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

RUMINT –
President Zelensky says he has information that Russia has planted bombs at Kakhovska Hydropower plant and plans to blow up it, calls for international mission to prevent a disaster.

Russian sources claim Ukraine has a 4:1 advantage in northern Kherson. Normally a 3:1 advantage is desired for a successful offensive operation.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Very little reporting in the region. Drone attacks are down, fighting on the ground the same. Quiet, too quiet.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
NSR, the offensive in this sector appears to be in a pause mode..

Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks centering on Bakhmut but also around Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire in this sector.

Crimean front ———
Explosions were reported near Antonivsky bridge in Kherson. Speculation that Russian officers, their families and collaborators were crossing the Dnipir via nearby pontoon bridge.

No details on any Ukranian action in northern Kherson Oblast. Sporatic artillery along the LOC.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
This relative calm can’t last for long and I expect things to pick up again soon. Watching Kherson as well as Belarus activity.

Belarus -

On 14 October 2022, Belarussian president Aleksandr Lukashenko said that 70,000 Belarusian troops and up to 15,000 Russians would be involved in a new Russian-Belarussian Group of Forces.

OBSERVATION – I said 70K Russians in past posts, that is in error, that number is Belarus. The announcement is likely an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border.

A senior Ukrainian military official says there is growing danger that Russia will open a new front in the war through its coordination with Belarus, using it to cut military supplies to Ukraine.
“The threat of the Russian armed forces resuming the offensive on the northern front is growing,” Oleksii Hromov, a senior official in the military’s General Staff, said Thursday.
“This time, the direction of the offensive may be changed to the (western part) of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border to cut the main logistics arteries of supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from partner countries,” Hromov said.

OBSERVATION – This correlates to the predominantly anti-Polish rhetoric of recent days. I also observed that Russian air strikes on the supply chain from Poland was not having the effect desired, and that an attack southward toward Kviv and the Polish border would be necessary to cut off those supply lines. This plan would work if the Belarus and Russian forces were competent – which they are not. But they may just try in an effort to divert resources from Ukrainian offenses in the east and south.

Radio Svoboda reports that in recent days medics, doctors and nurses in Belarus have been called to military offices

OBSERVATION – Interesting unconfirmed report. Definitely an indicator that Belarus may actually do something very stupid.

Israel -

Israeli Prime Minister Lapid told Ukrainian foreign minister Kuleba that Israel is concerned by the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran

Iran -

Riots/protests continue across the country

IRGC ‘advisors’ are in Crimea providing instruction on how to use Iranian provided drones and other offensive weapons systems.

I’ve commented that there are many, what I call ‘vectors’ converging in the late fall time frame that suggest some bad stuff his headed our way. The first is pretty simple – the midterm elections and just what will the democrats do to preserve their power. If left unchecked, it appears that republicans will soundly retake congress. How far will the democrats go to preserve their power? Martial law?

Second is the increasingly obvious signs of biden’s failing health. Any removal would be after the midterms for as to do so earlier would through the democrats further into an electoral tailspin.

Third is the growing shipping/supply chain crisis – See details below, that could hit critical mass in mid-November.

Fourth is the growing implosion of the housing market – an overall bellwether of the nation’s economy.

Fifth is the evidence that the fed will continue its aggressive rate hikes, and may possibly double down and go higher this year.

Sixth, ongoing inflation crisis and growing opinions of CEOs and economists that the Fed’s rate policy is too aggressive now and will put us into a deep recession, starting as early as the end of the year.

Finally, the great unknowns out there such as growing concern over putin pulling the pin and popping a nuke, growing Chinese aggressiveness towards Taiwan, an attempt to arrest Trump, imposition of a US digital currency and rising food production shortages.

I generally reject many of the ‘doomers’ out there who for years have called out that the world was coming to an end (many in an effort to profit from it). But there are times for some realism too. This isn’t doomerism to point out these areas, I think we are well aware of them in one fashion or another. But to pull them together into some kind of chronological context may bring thoughts of doomerism. In reality, it is breaking out of normalcy bias and seeing the world as it really is.

I’ve said before, my daily analysis of world events is for my use to see issues coming up with enough time to react to mitigate their effects. I share these with you here. One thing I can’t miss is the fact that the available time to react is becoming shorter and shorter. It is unbelievable the pace of the past couple years and it shows no signs of slowing down.

Do what you must now because there is a storm coming.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Justin Trudeau, announced the national freeze on the sale, purchase, and transfer of handguns comes into effect. From now on, people cannot buy, sell, or transfer handguns within Canada, and they cannot bring newly acquired handguns into the country.
A national handgun freeze was first announced alongside Bill C-21, the strongest gun control measures in over 40 years, in May 2022. The bill is currently being debated in Parliament.

OBSERVATION – Canada has become another one of the GGR’s beta testing nations. Trudeau’s freeze is currently an executive order type measure pending legislative approval. This action is likely to alienate western states even more. Type trial for the US and the rest of the world.

Canadian Electric vehicle (EV) owners have been shocked to find out that battery replacements for their cars, especially older models, tops $20,000. One EV owner shared his experience, saying: “At the dealership, he looked it up online and said you’re not going to like this,” before delivering a bill of $15,000 plus labor and taxes.

OBSERVATION – It’s not easy being green. High battery replacement costs have been out there for a while, now is becoming more front and center given the increased numbers of EVs out there. Hard for the greens in the GGR to stomach or cause them to slow the push for EVs.

Wuhan virus -

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) approval of 3-4 dose COVID shots for adults and children starting at 6 months — a first for vaccines still under emergency use authorization — stands in sharp relief to growing reluctance abroad to jab certain age groups and ongoing research documenting serious adverse events.
This with new research finding high post-vaccination hospitalization rate in kids under 5, heart inflammation rates in 12-15 that far exceed their peak COVID hospitalization rate.

OBSERVATION – The vote already has significant push back and the CDC et al scrambling to say addition to the vaccination list isn’t “mandatory”, ignoring the fact that states/school districts rely on the list as its standard for vaccination requirements.

NOTE - Denmark has stopped offering the shots under age 18 and Sweden under age 11, while Finland, Iceland and Norway don’t recommend them for 5-11 year-olds, according to Danish-American epidemiologist Tracy Beth Hoeg. Last month, the U.K. suggested it was phasing out 5-11 vaccination, given the age group’s low risk from COVID and high natural immunity.

THERE IS LITTLE TO NO RISK TO OUR CHILDREN FROM THE VIRUS – ONLY THE ‘VACCINE’

According to a report from Reuters, Pfizer President Angela Lukin announced on Thursday that the pharmaceutical giant will charge between $110 and $130 per dose. This is a 400% increase. However, the shots will be available at no cost to Americans with private or government insurance.
OBSERVATION – Follow the money, honey. “No Cost” – comes at the expense of the insurance premiums which tend to rise as medical costs like this rise.

Economy –

The 10-year and 3-month spread on Treasuries inverted this week, suggesting that recession is now imminent, following expectations from Bank of America that there is a 100% chance of a recession over the next 12 months.

OBSERVATION – I’m taking it at its word.

Kostas Bintas, Trafigura’s cohead of metals and minerals trading, said at the FT Mining Summit on Thursday that global supply of copper is running dangerously low inventories can currently cover 4.9 days of global consumption and could finish the year at 2.9 days. For comparison, copper inventories are typically counted in weeks.
OBSERVATION – Doesn’t explain the overall reason for the shortages. Here in the Redoubt, the local copper mine is pedal to the metal. I suspect that high fuel costs as well as related smelting costs may be part of the blame.

SUPPLY CHAIN WARNINGS – lets pull together some critical items in recent news – and IMHO the potential implications are frightening.
1. Water levels continue to drop on the Mississippi shutting down more and more river barge traffic. No relief in sight
2. Cargo shipping as shifted to east coast ports to avoid backlogs on the west. However, this is causing new backups as these ports are not set up to handle the increased volumes.
3. Railroad strike is looming bigger as key unions are rejecting the White House compromise. May come into play before Christmas (November 19 is the deadline). No signs of compromise.
4. Railroads continue to give preference to its own cars over private cars.
5. Diesel stocks are at 40 year lows, industry analysts estimate only about 25 days worth in storage and production unable to make up the difference and produce fuel oil needed for the winter at the same time. No signs of any improvement in the near term
6. Trucking industry is still 60,000 or so drivers short and incapable of picking up the slack from barge and rail traffic. No signs of improvement short or long term.

These supply line issues look to be coming together to form a perfect storm scenario going into late fall/early winter and probably into 2023 as well. This will cause another serious round of shortages and associated increases in prices that will keep inflation hot.

According to biden -
“This year, the deficit fell by 1.4 trillion dollars, the largest one-year drop in American history,” Biden said. “We’re going from a historically strong economic recovery to steady and stable growth while reducing the deficit. This is the economic vision I’ve had for America.”

The big drop in the deficit from 2021 to 2022 is due to one thing, and one thing only: the expiration of the enormous COVID spending programs. You don’t have to take my word for it. According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “Of the $1.4 trillion drop in the deficit between FY 2021 and 2022, roughly $1.45 trillion—or 104 percent—was the result of shrinking or expiring COVID relief.”

OBSERVATION – Biden gaslights Americans. Additional fact is that the national debt inflated 50% during his regime so far.

Biden / Harris watch –

During an MSNBC interview, it appears that Biden is going to sleep or having some other physical issue.

BIDEN: “It’s my intention to run again.”
Q: “Dr. Biden is for it?”
BIDEN: *silence*
Q: “Mr. President?”
BIDEN: “Dr. Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we’re, that we’re doing something very important.”

https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1583601424968994816

OBSERVATION – Many, even some in the MSM, are noting an increased mental failure of biden. This could lead up to a 25th Amendment challenge and constitutional crisis after the midterms. I am still surprised that he has made it this long into his term.

CW2/Domestic violence -

NYT op-ed has given the green light for eco-terrorists to ruin, destroy and disable property because our “house is burning”.
“You may destroy an inanimate object — and no one in the climate movement is suggesting anything other than targeting dead things — so as to protect living beings. Or, put differently, if you are locked in a house on fire, you have a right to break some windows to get out.”

OBSERVATION – We are seeing some soft forms of this in Europe. This op-ed seems to imply a level of violence far beyond that.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

On Friday evening, a judge granted a motion filed by Missouri and Louisiana calling for key figures in the Biden administration to be deposed in regard to the administration’s work with social media platforms to suppress free speech.
In a Friday tweet, Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt said that the US District Court Western District of Louisiana Monroe Division granted the plaintiffs’ request to depose Dr. Anthony Fauci, former White House Press Secretary Jennifer Psaki, FBI Supervisory Special Agent Elvis Chan, as well as other Biden Administration officials.

OBSERVATION- Lawfare continues on this subject. Expect the left to try to delay and obfuscate as long as possible.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

An annual ranking of U.S. military strength has ranked the nation’s armed forces as “weak” for the first time.
American armed forces are “at growing risk of not being able to meet the demands of defending America’s vital national interests,” assessed the Heritage Founation’s 2023 Index of U.S. Military Strength, the Washington Examiner reported.

“It is rated as weak relative to the force needed to defend national interests on a global stage against actual challenges in the world as it is rather than as we wish it were,” the index said.

OBSERVATION – Heritage Foundation is an American conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. that is primarily geared toward public policy. Thus it policy positions should be taken into account when considering its view of miliary readiness. That said, it does nail pretty hard some key points that the military / govt admit too that are impacting readiness. As such, it appears to pretty accurately paint the picture that there are serious deficiencies in the military that need to be addressed – by someone other than the progressive democrats currently in charge, who’ve deliberately created the problems the military is facing today.

China –

At its congress, China’s Communist Party enshrined opposition to Taiwan independence into its constitution.

Political intrigue as Chinese former leader Hu Jintao was led out of the closing ceremony of the Communist Party Congress. The frail-looking 79-year-old was sitting beside President Xi Jinping when he was approached and led away by officials. No explanation was given. The two most likely reasons for his departure are that it was either part of China’s power politics on full display, with a leader representing a former time being symbolically removed, or that Hu Jintao has serious health problems.
The Communist Party’s mass meetings are normally highly scripted events, leading to speculation that the timing of Hu Jintao’s departure might not have been an accident.

Hu Jintao represents a very different China to that of Xi Jinping. He ran a much more collective leadership and had to balance various factions represented on the Politburo Standing Committee. The Hu years were seen as a time of opening up to the outside world and increased tolerance of new ideas.

OBSERVATION – Intrigue indeed. DON’T MISS THIS – he was sitting right next to Xi!!!! Most likely a strong statement by Xi now facing a lifetime appointment as president of China that his regime will be the opposite of Hu’s .

Japan –

The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of Standard Missile 6, Block 1 missiles to Japan as part of a $450 million arms sale. According to a Pentagon statement, the deal covers 32 missiles and all related equipment and services. The SM-6 missiles are slated for deployment by Japan’s Air Defense and Ballistic Missile Defense units. The arms deal is part of an overall effort by Japan to build a credible deterrence force ahead of what it sees as a rapidly approaching conflict with China in the East China Sea. (FO)

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

********
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held telephone conversations with the US Secretary of Defense, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The parties discussed the situation in Ukraine and international security. This is the first conversation in months between the two.

RUMINT –
Some analysts say Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant to cover their withdrawal and prevent Ukraine’s forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast. The tactical reason would be to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive.” It would also provide a buffer zone around eastern Kherson Oblast that would prevent Ukraine from getting within artillery reach of Russian-occupied Crimea.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

RUMINT –
Some claim Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Further rumors that Russia is forcing civilians to evacuate and may be using them as human shields to protect Russian pontoon bridge at Kherson.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Reports of widespread Russian air/missile strikes across Ukraine this morning including in the Kyiv region and further west. Reports of stand off airstrikes, cruise missiles from the Black Sea and drone strikes. Ukrainian media reports power cuts across large parts of western Ukraine. The recent Russian missile campaign has reportedly damaged 30-40% of electrical grid so far.

Evidence of some Ukrainian gains in the east, but in all the lines are remaining pretty static.

Kyiv front ——
Missile/drone strikes in the region.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery along the border.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian artillery targeted the border region north of Kharkiv with a limited Russian attack north of the city at the border.

Though under tight OPSEC, unconfirmed reports that Russia shelled Ukranian positions near the settlement of Karmazynivka in Luhansk region. This indicates the Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced to less than 5 km from Route 66 and less than a dozen kilometres from Svatove. Svatove is key to the control of Route 66 and is the main supply route to Severodonetsk, seizing it will cut it off from the North East.

NOTE – This is an example where backdoor intel developed from the detailed battle trackers. General assumption here being Russia will shell Ukrainian positions/troops. By tracking where the Russian shelling is occurring, can generally be used to assess where the front line is – getting around OPSEC measures.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks centering on Bakhmut but also around Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire in this sector.

Ukrainian defenders reportedly repulsed Russian attacks on Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka in Luhansk region. Ukraine have also reportedly taken control of Zolotarivka and are carefully advancing on Lysychansk.

Crimean front ———
Unconfirmed reports of the start of a Russian withdrawal from Kherson Oblast west of the Dnipir River. Right now the only significant crossing point is a pontoon bridge next to the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson with some scattered ferries operating.

Senior Russian military staff, Russian occupation authorities and collaborators reportedly first in line. The pontoon bridge has come under a lot of Ukranian fire and has successfully interdicted some of these key personnel. Reports now of forced civilian evacuations under the guise of an impending attack to destroy / damage the dam upstream of Kherson.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Some of the overnight missile strikes hit as far west as Kovel and Lutsk with air defense assets active in the Lviv region

Russian Territory -—
Ukraine shelled Schebekino of Belgorod region, hitting an industrial complex and setting it on fire.

Power station damaged by shelling in Belgorod Oblast, Russia.

Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said water and power supply had been partially cut off in the area.

In Belgorod smoke pours from a Russian warehouse. Some Russian channels claim this was a result of Ukrainian shelling.

NOTE – Belgorod being the most significant Russian city within range of Ukranian artillery is now apparently coming under consistent fire.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Well, I’d say same old, same old. Rumors surrounding reported Russian pullout in Kherson and the various other scuttlebutt is a challenge to work through. Best I can discern is the Russian bigwigs are getting out of dodge and any concerted withdrawal of the Russian army across the extremely limited (and under fire) pontoon bridge and a few ferries is very problematical.

Russia is having success attacking Ukraine’s electrical grid via Iranian supplied drones. Though Ukraine has success in downing them, the volume eventually overwhelms local areas. The Ukraine success is also tasking its ADA network supplies.

Waiting to see if the OPSEC, and fog of war clears to provide better intel on what is happening.

Belarus -

Belarusian President Lukashenko: Minsk not preparing to enter the Ukraine conflict
“We are not planning to go anywhere. There is no war as of today. We do not need it,” Lukashenko said.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khreninr said it was predictable that existing tensions would proceed into a war against a West that was “openly demonstrating its readiness to unleash aggression against Belarus.” Khreninr said attempts by the Lukashenko regime to “appeal to reason” and advance “peaceful initiatives” with the West had been “fruitless.” Citing an “unprecedented” buildup of NATO forces who had the capability to strike “the entire depth” of the territory of Belarus, The Minister further characterized drills near the Belarusian border where “Belarus was designated as an enemy,” as deliberate attempts to “build up tension” in the region in “obvious” preparations for war. (FO)

OBSERVATION – More indicators based on rhetoric that Belarus is more focused on Poland/Baltic NATO states than they are on Ukraine.

While all this posturing is going on, there are reports that Belarus has handed over 24 more T-72A tanks to Russia. “belzhd_live” telegram channel reports that 24 more T-72A tanks removed from storage were sent from Belarus towards Donetsk on October 16, 2022.

OBSERVATION – Hard to accept a Belrus/Russian invasion from the north when key items are being shipped out of country.

OTHER INTEL – Unconfirmed information on Belarus and Russian troop movements appear to have them headed towards the southwest portion of the country, and not building up north of Kyiv. This would be in line with Belarus rhetoric directed towards Poland/Baltics rather than Ukraine. Still evaluating the accuracy of these new sources.

Israel -

See Syria overnight air strikes.

Iran -

Protests continue across Iran. Tehran Uni. students bring back a very strong phrase from 1979 revolution-they are marching and chanting “Canons and guns are useless, tell my mother that her son was killed”.

Lebanon -

Lebanese Minister of Health: The cholera epidemic has spread from Syria to Lebanon in the absence of basic services from refugee camps

OBSERVATION - Lebanon is in serious economic woes and now having an epidemic hit it only increases its woes. Much of the wrath for the problems continue to be laid at the feet of Hezbollah who are in essence the defacto leaders of the country.

Syria -

Israeli air raids targeted trucks loaded with missiles belonging to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, which were being transferred from Damascus Airport and targeted on the Al-Sabourah - Dimas road in the western Damascus countryside.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The “free market experiment is over”, according to a top Tory MP and Rishi Sunak backer Tobias Ellwood, who hopes the establishment favorite will now usher in a “reset”.
Senior Tory Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the Defense Select Committee of the House of Commons, has thrown his weight behind the leadership campaign of the anti-tax cuts former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, arguing that a return to “centrist” government is required and a “reset” necessary — drawing comparisons to the World Economic Forum’s infamous Great Reset strategy.
“Time for centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government offering credible domestic [and] international leadership. Honored to be the 100th Tory MP to support [Rishi Sunak],” the globalist politician added.

Sunak has strong connections to Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF), with Sunak’s father-in-law, N. R. Narayana Murthy, the billionaire founder of Indian tech giant InfoSys, being a listed partner of the Davos-based group. Sunak appeared at the World Economic Forum’s Green Horizon Summit in 2020 to push the idea of a “whole of economy transition” to “green energy” sources.
“The challege of climate change is clear and it is urgent,” Sunak said. “We need to ensure a positive and fair transition to Net Zero and protect our environment.”

OBSERVATION – The British swamp appears to be a key player in the resignation of Liz Truss and her 60 day stint as PM. Another clue is that Ellwood, was raised and educated in Germany and Austria, is a fervent Remainer in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and as recently as June argued that Britain should re-join the EU Single Market, claiming that this would mitigate the cost of living crisis and issues with inflation — despite the EU actually having a higher inflation rate than Britain.
This was an aggressive power play by the British swamp to get someone favorable to its agenda back in power. Of course the EU also has strong ties to GGR/WEF goals and desires, ones that Truss didn’t share and Sunak does.

Wuhan virus -

There is a lawsuit being brought forward by Pfizer whistleblower Brook Jackson claiming company’s alleged malfeasance, citing ‘falsified data’ and manipulated clinical trials. It passes a major hurdle in February, the judge ruled that the lawsuit, can proceed to pre-trial discovery phase. It is now on the verge of potentially going to trial.

OBSERVATION – This is an important trial. As noted already, Pfizer and Modera have liability protections under the EUA. These protections can be removed if fraud is proven. I’ve pointed to many articles and findings that lay the groundwork for such fraud, but this is an insider with her hands on the hard core documents proving such. If she succeeds, this could open the flood gates of lawsuits against the two companies and perhaps even complicit govt officials (Fauci et al), who helped cover up the fraud.

A new study shows that nearly everyone getting the mRNA COVID vaccines are experiencing some amount of heart damage. The study out of Switzerland shows that vaccinated people have uniformly higher troponin levels than their unvaccinated peers. Troponin is a type of protein found in the muscles of your heart. Troponin isn’t normally found in the blood. When heart muscles become damaged, troponin is sent into the bloodstream. As heart damage increases, greater amounts of troponin are released in the blood
What the study shows is that nearly everyone is getting a little heart damage when they get the COVID vaccine, some get a lot more damage than others.

OBSERVATION – This report above is second hand. I’ve not been able to trackdown the original study reference. However, it does jibe with heart problems well documented now from the jab and why it hits some worse than others. Worthy on note.

Economy –

More rumblings concerning the liquidity of Treasury bonds and the potential disaster if the country dives into too deep of a recession.

Invasion of Illegals -

In the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, migrants were stopped 2.38 million times, up 37% from 1.73 million times the year before, according to figures released late Friday night. The annual total surpassed 2 million for the first time in August and is more than twice the highest level during Donald Trump’s presidency in 2019.
Nearly 78,000 migrants from Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua were stopped in September, compared to about 58,000 from Mexico and three countries of northern Central America that have historically accounted for most of the flow.

OBSERVATION - See Hegelian Dialect pattern discussion below in CW2/Domestic violence. This is just another vector to create an ungovernable situation that can be used to force a govt solution on an unwilling peoples.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Homicide rates rose by an average of nearly 10% in 50 of the most populated U.S. cities between the third quarter of last year and the third quarter of this year — and are still rising — according to a study by WalletHub, a personal finance website.
WalletHub compared 50 of America’s largest cities based on per capita homicides for the third quarter (July through September) of each year since 2020, using locally published crime data to compile its findings.
According to WalletHub, these were the ten cities with the highest homicide cases per 100,000 residents from July through September:
1. St. Louis, Mo. (19.69)
2. Kansas City, Mo. (14.86)
3. Detroit, Mich. (13.24)
4. Baltimore, Md. (12.45)
5. New Orleans, La. (10.99)
6. Milwaukee, Wisc. (10.46)
7. Memphis, Tenn. (9.99)
8. Philadelphia, Pa. (9.36)
9. Norfolk, Va. (7.78)
10. Chicago, Ill. (7.71)
The top prosecutors in most of these cities are backed by progressive megadonor George Soros.

OBSERVATION – Though obscure to me, the WalletHub study is echoed by numerous others that show the same thing. Blue cities and especially those with Soro-backed DAs have become open crime zones and its getting worse. This is part of the Marxist left’s goals of creating an ungovernerable citizenry. It follows the Hegelian Dialect pattern –

1. The government creates or exploits a problem in which attributes blame to others.
2. The people react by asking the govt for protection and help (safety and security) to help solve the problem.
3. Then, the government offers the solution that was planned by them long before the crisis occurred.

Same pattern being followed by GGR/WEF proponents – see wuhan and climate change pushes.
What’s the outcome? The outcome of all of this is - the rights and liberties exchanged for the illusion of protection and help. It is the ‘cold’ or ‘gray’ CW2 battlefield. Their goal is a global socialist state – one country at a time. One where the left wants the federalization of the police force . Such concentration in the police force to make sure that the federal government has the most control. Control to exert its policies and demands on the sheeple.

POLITICAL FRONT –

J6 has subpoenaed Trump. Fireworks expected and it is doubtful that if forced, he will testify prior to the midterm elections. Reviewed as a desperated gamble by the illegitimate J6 committee.

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

A lot of news on the combat brigade from the 101st Air Assault division currently in Poland and its ‘readiness’ to cross into Ukraine and engage Russian forces. This unit has been deployed there since February to bolster NATO defenses. Though essentially a leg unit, it is well trained to operate in a combined arms environment and with NATO allies.

China –

Xi Jinping was elected as the general secretary for an unprecedented third straight 5 year term. According to rules he pushed through, he is set on being in charge of China for the rest of his life. On Sunday he unveiled a new leadership team stacked with loyalists as he looks to consolidate his power. Shanghai party chief Li Qiang was the first member behind Xi to walk into a room packed with journalists, confirming his second-in-command rank and signaling that he will become the country’s next premier.
The pair were followed by anti-corruption chief Zhao Leji, ideology tsar Wang Huning, Beijing party head Cai Qi, top Xi adviser Ding Xuexiang and Guangdong province chief Li Xi. Most have previously worked with the 69-year-old Xi over the years as he shot up the ranks of the party.
This follows the public humiliation of former president Ho who was led out of the congress on live television - allegedly due to a ‘medical’ condition.

North/South Korea -

The recent round of North Korean ballistic missile tests revealed that a new method for launching ballistic missiles had been developed. This one involved the use of an underwater launch tube placed in lakes and used to launch SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile). North Korea later claimed that this lake based SLBM launch involved a production model of their SLBM. North Korea already has land and railroad train silos for its ballistic missiles. Use of its air force is questionable due to the age of their aircraft and questionable maintenance status as to be useless for bomb delivery.

OBSERVATION – Unique and thinking out of the box, but not necessarily very practical in the event of war IMHO. Less damage would be necessary to disable such a launch system that would be required for a hardened silo or even finding a mobile system.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.

********

Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu is telling colleagues around the world about the possible use of a “dirty bomb” by the Ukrainian authorities, – Russian media reports. NOTE - Suspected false flag propaganda.

Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels announced that Russian regional officials paused the extension of the Wagner Line fortifications that run behind the line of contact in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts and into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. Prigozhin’s efforts and messaging, including the creation of the “Wagner Line,” are increasingly out of line with Kremlin rhetoric and are critical of what Prigozhin claims are slow-moving “bureaucrat-enemies.” Such activism endears Prigozhin to Russian nationalists, who are dissatisfied with limited Kremlin escalation and MoD disorganization.

RUMINT –
Wagner affiliated Telegram channel says Kherson is lost and that it will be worse than the retreat from Kharkiv as they Russians have no way to get out. NOTE – Wagner is in a political scrap with the regular Russian army types over influencing putin and his operations in Ukraine, so there may be a degree of propaganda targeting Russian readers/influencers.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian MOD says the situation in Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating” in a message on Telegram. Nonspecific but definitely a break in the previous, scripted messages claiming Russian victories. Definitely out of the ordinary.

This “rapidly deteriorating” was evidenced yesterday by another breakthrough and surge in Ukrainian territory in northern Kherson Oblast being liberated.

More unsuccessful Russian assaults on the Bakhmut region.

Noticeable decrease in Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian electrical grid.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery along the border.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered artillery fire along the LOC to the east.
Russian sources reported Ukrainian continued counteroffensives in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks centering on Bakhmut but also around Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire in this sector. Russian sources report some gains, but very minor. Wagner Group mercenaries openly state they are pressing the fight in this region.

Open source satellite imagery shows the development of the “Wagner Line” defenses in the Luhansk region.

Crimean front ———
Overnight news that the Russian lines northeast of Kherson on the west side of the Dnipir have collapsed, allowing Ukranian forces to rapidly seize nearly 20 km of territory. Reports of Russian artillery in the same area were virtually absent.

Ukraine’s general staff confirmed that Russians are abandoning their positions in the northwestern parts of the Kherson front. Now that Ukraine has reached Mylove, Russians are forced to retreat towards Beryslav and Kakhovka dam because they are in danger to get surrounded.

Ukraine’s military command say Russian forces have also abandoned villages in southern Kherson region - left Charivne & Chkalove & officers & medical personnel left town of Beryslav near Nova Kakhovka.

Ukrainian attack appears to be forming up into two pincers. One pincer moving along the west side of the Dnipir, with the second pincer moving down from the north on the east side of the Inhulets River.

Russian occupation authorities are still demanding the evacuation of Kherson and areas west of the Dnipir. So far it seems those leaving consist primarly of Russian occupation personnel, their families and collaborators. Remember Kherson was the only city to surrender to the Russian forces without a fight. There was reportedly a historic lean towards Russia in the town.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine liberated a big chunk of Kherson Oblast territory yesterday. Russia reportedly is falling back and consolidating defensive positions in order to protect the withdrawal of forces. Such a retrograde action is very hard to successfully accomplish among well trained armies. Russia did divert better trained forces to Kherson to block the Ukraine so they could be partially successful. However, months of short supplies and a dubious escape route may well work its way into the mind of the Russian soldier as they try to hold off the advancing Ukranian army.

Ukraine once again is showing maneuver and combined arms is better than smashing ahead, with a pincer developing that could encircle a significant number of Russian units. Get armor into the rear area and wee doggies do they have fun.

Short term – Russia may try to form a last stand defense at Kherson city.

NOTE on the rumors that Ukraine will blow up the Kakhovka (or the Russians as part of a false flag scenario). Loss of the dam and reservoir would result in the loss of a significant water supply to Crimea. If false flag, it would disrupt any remaining efforts by Russia to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast. Ukraine would not benefit either, losing hydropower to the grid and further endangering the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant’s supply of cooling water.

A Zaporizhzhia offensive has been rumbled about on both Russian and Ukranian circles. A push southward would place Ukrainian forces on the east bank of the Dnipir River, avoiding a costly river crossing operation from the Kherson region. This action could open up space to allow Ukrainian forces to build bridging elements and its forces on the west side to the east side. This axis of attack would again out maneuver Russian forces focusing on holding the east bank of the Dnipir. Depending on the liberation of Kherson, I would expect a Zaporizhzhia offensive to develop in a similar manner as Kherson - intensive battlefield preparation through striking logistics, command posts and troop concentration. It is here that the loss of the Kerch Bridge will be strongly felt as supplies / troops would have to come in from the east or ferried across into Crimea. The question is how will the changing to a winter battlefield conditions affect such an attack. Initial inklings from Ukraine’s war efforts in the east and south suggest that they are prepared and capable of pressing the fight in the winter.

Belarus -

Belarus has cut off transmission of their highway traffic cameras, which coincides with the massive staging of Belarusian, Russian, and PMC along the borders of Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – This also occurred prior to the launch of Russia’s February attack into Ukraine. This has raised the concern of some that a similar operation may be in the offing.

Russian military personnel continue to arrive in Belarus - Ministry of Defense of Belarus

OBSERVATION – These troops are arriving with minimal equipment, generally trucks and vans. No armor/tanks. They are also predominantly recently rounded up mobilization conscripts absent any training.

.
Europe / NATO General -

The French press reports that 3 fiber optics cable in the Atlantic Oceans have been cut, causing connectivity issues worldwide. At the same time the internet access on the British Shetland Islands went offline. Russian submarines are suspected.

OBSERVATION - A lot of talk of sabotague of these two cables, but hard facts are not readily available. The Shetland cut was attributed to a fishing incident (scallop trawler?). However, interception of these key fiber optics elsewhere would endanger the global internet and may just be precursors / practice for when one of these other lines are attacked.

Iran -

Riots/protests continue across the country.
Probably in support of the protests, Anonymous claims it has hacked the website of Iran’s Intelligence Ministry.

This may be an interesting and historic week. Stay tuned.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Rishi Sunak will become British prime minister on Monday unless Penny Mordaunt reaches the threshold of 100 backers to force a run-off vote by party members.
OBSERVATION – As mentioned previously, Sunak is heavily into the GGR/WEFs back pocket as a key player. His selection will pretty much nail down the advancement of GGR/WEF goals for England over the next several years.

Wuhan virus -

Two women have filed lawsuits alleging their husbands died from negligence at Inland Empire hospitals after doctors prescribed remdesivir to treat COVID-19 and then failed to tell them about dangerous side effects of the anti-viral drug.
The lawsuits, filed last month in state court against Kaiser Permanente Riverside Medical Center and Redlands Community Hospital and several of their physicians, allege doctors engaged in fraud by prescribing each of the men remdesivir without their knowledge or consent. Doctors also allegedly failed to explain that the drug is ineffective in treating COVID-19, is toxic to kidneys and can cause death, the complaints say.

https://www.ocregister.com/2022/10/23/patients-died-from-covid-19-drug-treatment-at-redlands-riverside-hospitals-suits-allege/

OBSERVATION – Important article to read as the other shoe starts to drop. In addition to the fraud being exposed about the jab, Remdesivir / ventilation treatment of wuhan patients lead to more death than recovery. This lawsuit only covers the tip of the iceberg of medical malpractice of insisting on the treatment as the only one allowed – keeping patient/family ignorant and in some instances forcibly out of the decision process. Along with this was the financial incentives – big bucks in reimbursements to the hospitals that used this protocol. Pure evil that hospital staff would so willingly and blindly follow that protocol when it essentially guaranteed the death of the patient.

Economy –

The housing market is in for more pain as mortgage rates continue to soar, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. The warning comes after the existing-home sales report on Thursday showed a 1.5% decline in September to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.71 million units. That marked the eighth consecutive drop and the longest such slump since 2007.
The housing market has been setting off more alarm bells lately. Pantheon Macroeconomics said Thursday the crash has yet to find a bottom, setting up home prices for a dive of up to 20% in the year ahead. And last week, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said he expected home prices to see the second-worst decline since World War II amid aggressive Fed rate hikes.

OBSERVATION – Noted before, the housing market is a significant indicator of overall economic health as it interfaces with so many aspects of the economy. These are not good numbers to be contemplating even as the Fed mulls two more increases to the prime rate.

In the for what its worth department, Musk is musing that the recession may continue into the spring of 2024.

The US Northeast is so short on heating oil that the fuel used to power home furnaces is being rationed even before the start of winter. Some wholesalers in Connecticut are putting retailers on allocation, meaning they can only get a limited amount of fuel based on availability, according to Chris Herb, president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, which represents around 600 family-owned retailers in the state. These retailers must in turn ration their customers.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), residential heating oil in the New England area, in March 2020, was about $2.87 per gallon. It held in that range or lower for the bulk of Trump’s presidency. Not long after Biden entered office, the price began to climb. As of October 17, the latest figure, it’s $5.70 per gallon. At current prices — and keep in mind, these prices are guaranteed to rise in the coming months as demand increases and supply decreases, probably significantly — the cost to fill the typical 275-gallon residential heating oil tank is about $1,567.
That amount of heating oil, according to Shipley Energy, lasts the average home about 56 days — less than two months, but let’s call it two months. Thats $783 per month for heating oil alone, and that’s at the current rate.

OBSERVATION – Heating oil has historically been in tight supply in the NE for a long time now. This problem historically due in part to the region’s refusal to tap into the natural gas reserves in NY and allow the construction of distribution pipelines. This years shortages have been made worse to the production chaos inflicted by biden’s economic attack on the industry. Already stocks of diesel fuel are at a 25 day supply level and dropping. To produce more heating oil, refineries have to cut diesel production to increase heating oil.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that following the November elections, oil markets will be poised to increase toward $125/barrel, suggesting a gasoline retail price average of $5 per gallon across the country.

Invasion of Illegals -

The nearly 2.4 million migrant “encounters” along the southwestern border in fiscal year 2022 – the most ever recorded – included significant increases in September in the number of those from Colombia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, when compared to the same month a year earlier.

OBSERVATION – A repeat I know, but consider that this places the total since the biden regime opened the doors at over 5 million. In the Before Times, I remember that 5 million was the estimate of those living illegally in the US prior to biden. . . . .

Biden / Harris watch –

Kamala Harris was interviewed by WCCO 4 News in Minnesota and she denied she appealed for donations to the Minnesota Freedom Fund in 2020. There is a problem with her denial, though. Her tweet asking for donations is still up. Oops.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

The Department of Justice on Monday will announce U.S. action targeting “malign influence schemes and alleged criminal activity” by a “nation-state actor,” it said in a statement, without naming the entity. It will be a press conference by the attorney general.

OBSERVATION - Filed here, update tomorrow

China –

International reactions to the removal of former Chinese president Ho continue.

North/South Korea -

Warning shots were exchanged between the two Koreas’ maritime border early on Monday, KCNA says. DPRK side fired 10 multiple rocket launcher rounds at around 5.15AM, following ROK warning shots at 3.50AM. The SK military has “strengthened its readiness posture” following NK’s maritime violation and rocket fire - Yonhap

Earlier, a NK ship crossed the Northern Limit Line, causing SK military to fire warning shots.

OBSERVATION – This is a dangerous game of chicken going on and starting to escalate. One miscalculation could set the whole thing off as both nations have developed a big chip on their shoulders.

Japan –

On Saturday, Australia and Japan signed a security agreement to share intelligence and assist each other. The deal was inked by Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Anthony Albanese in the western Australian city of Perth.
Meanwhile, according to Reuters, Japan is rebuilding its military in a way not seen since before World War II to prepare for what some policymakers fear is an inevitable showdown with China.
Officials and analysts say that 2027, the next Communist Party Congress in China, could be the year China matches its bellicose rhetoric on Taiwan with action.

OBSERVATION – Japan, as well as other nations in the region, have only a limited window to make preparations for an eventually conflict with China.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now entering its ninth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. A major withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast appears to be underway as Russian forces once again appear to have been out maneuvered and out gunned by Ukraine.

********
Russian Ministry of Defense says its forces and measures are prepared for the detonation of “dirty nuclear bomb”.
Russia now just flooding social media and news space with fakes what Ukraine intends to do:
- to blow up Kakhovska dam
- Both Kakhovska and Dnipro dam
- Dirty nuclear bomb at Kherson
- Blow up all 6 units of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
- dirty bomb+same script as Khan Shaykhun(staged)

The “dirty bomb” map being posted today from the Russian MoD is literally the EXACT same one that was released on August 18th in regards to the potential false flag on Zaporizhzhia NPP

NOTE – The whole dirty bomb narrative has all the markings of psyops and even a set up for a false flag. At worse case could even be used as an excuse for a tactical nuke strike.

Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russia Today, announced that RT is terminating cooperation with Anton Krasovsky after his speech in which he wanted to drown Ukrainian children and burn Transcarpathia. “It was wild and disgusting”
NOTE – Krasovsky is an example of the extreme nationalist wing influencing putin.

NUKE WATCH -
Part of Shoigu’s phone calls was a warning of possible uncontrolled escalation in Ukraine if a “dirty bomb” goes off. Some are reading this as another nuclear threat. It was unusual for Shoigu (or Russia in general) to make so many calls to western nations on this one subject.

Kerch Bridge update –

RUMINT –
Dirty bomb and nukes

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but were significantly less than the previous 24hrs. There are concerns by some in Ukraine that Russia may be planning a false flag escalation after the UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s call with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said Russian lies about Ukraine allegedly planning to use a ‘dirty bomb’ are as absurd as they are dangerous. Firstly, Ukraine is a committed NPT member: we neither have any ‘dirty bombs’, nor plan to acquire any. Secondly, Russians often accuse others of what they plan themselves

Ukraine made some gains in the east while apparently consolidating gains in Kherson. Russia attacked again in the Bakhmut region and may have even been pushed back.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Widely scattered artillery fire along the LOC to the east.

Donetsk Oblast ——
More of the same, Russians attack Bakhmut and the surrounding regions, with a lot of supporting artillery. Unconfirmed report that Ukraine may have turned the tables by counterattacking out of Bakhmut following the repulse of one of the Russian attacks, recapturing territory that took Russia a month to capture.

Russian launched another attack in the Donetsk region, with artillery support, to no avail.

Crimean front ———
No additional Ukranian advances to note. However, Russia focused much of the artillery of the region towards the pincer coming north out of Davydiv Brid region. Additional artillery along the approaches from Mykolayiv.

Ukranian missile strikes were reported at Russian military targets in the Kherson city area.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Things once again appear to be relatively stable. That can change quickly as Russia is on the ropes in Kherson and as seen last week, Ukraine can make quick advancements. Some speculation that Ukraine is holding back a little because of all the Russian rhetoric and they don’t want to get caught in a trap.

Yes, the Russian claims of an impending ‘dirty bomb’ by Ukraine which can then server as an excuse for a nuke strike continue to consume a lot of oxygen in the news cycles. The overt effort Russia is making to try to pin an unconventional attack on Ukraine could be an attempt to prepare the PR cycle for retribution – the ‘escalate to deescalate’ policy attributed to putin.

With putin losing badly in Ukraine and the totally messed up and unpopular ‘mobilization’, he may be finding himself in a corner, injured. A nuclear option may be his idea of an ‘off ramp’ for the operation.

Belarus -

An estimated 3000-4000 Russian troops are believed to have arrived in Belarus as part of the most recent military build up. In country trackers indicate Belarus and Russian troop movements generally towards the southwestern quadrant of the nation.

OBSERVATION – Still low likelihood of any attack coming out of Belarus in the near term.

Israel -

See Syria on airstrikes

Israeli Minister of Defense Gantz told his Ukrainian counterpart Reznikov that “due to operational limitations faced by the State of Israel, Israel will not provide weapon systems to Ukraine”
In related - An Israeli Minister on Sunday urged the country’s government to provide military aid to Ukraine amid reports that Iran will supply Russia with ballistic missiles during the ongoing conflict. “This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia,” tweeted Israel’s Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai. “There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict.” “The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as well, just as the USA and NATO countries provide,” he demanded.
OBSERVATION – Will Iran supplying Russia with missiles be the game changer as far as Israeli support goes?

Iran -

Protests continue. Iranian govt response becoming more violent with IRGC/Basij attacking students at Yasuj University Iran.

Iran’s military is conducting large-scale military drills on its border with Azerbaijan, including practicing crossings of the Aras River, which defines a large part of the border between the two states. The exercises are apparently aimed against Azerbaijan’s policy of getting a land corridor to Nakhcivan as a part of peace treaty with Armenia.
“Iran will not permit the blockage of its connection route with Armenia, and in order to secure that objective the Islamic Republic of Iran also launched a wargame in that region,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in an October 19 interview with the IRNA news agency.

OBSERVATIONS – Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have accelerated following the Armenian/Azeri conflict. The two countries have been at odds for some time before that as well. Armenia counts on support from Tehran, one of the few nations that has come to its aid against Azeribaijan.

Syria -

Assad’s forces backed by Russia bombard with heavy artillery the outskirts of the villages of Benin, Shanan, Majdalaya and Al-Ruwaiha in the southern countryside of Idlib, Syria

OBSERVATION – Long simmering behind all the other world news. Syria’s civil war continues. This is the biggest action in a number of months. Russia has been out of the net due to Ukraine, so for them to poke up here is notable

Israeli missile strikes targeted the positions of the Pro-Assad forces and Iranian militias in the Dimas area and the residences of the Republican Guard in Damascus.

The Israeli Air Force has reportedly destroyed an Iranian drone factory in Syrian territory during a bombing raid Saturday.
The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported the facility assembled unmanned vehicles whose parts were manufactured in Iran and then secretly shipped to Dimas in southern Syria, according to news outlets Ynet and Haaretz.

OBSERVATION - No indication that this facility is shipping any drones to Russia, but were being constructed for local use eventually against Israel.

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