Posted on 07/03/2023 7:46:53 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
I was hoping that the week of July 4th would start off with fireworks, but we got bad news about the economy.
US factory activity contracted for an eighth month in June, slipping to the weakest level in more than three years as production, employment and input prices retreated.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 46, the weakest since May 2020, from 46.9 a month earlier, according to data released Monday. The current stretch of readings below 50, which indicates shrinking activity, is the longest since 2008-2009.
The decline in the ISM production gauge, which also stands at the lowest level since May 2020, suggests demand for merchandise remains weak. The index of new orders contracted for the 10th straight month and order backlogs shrank, which may help explain a pullback in a measure of manufacturing employment.
The ISM gauge retreated to a three-month low and, at 48.1, indicates fewer producers adding to payrolls.
Many Americans continue to limit their spending on merchandise as they rotate to services and experiences. Others are simply tightening their belts as still-high inflation takes a toll on their incomes.
And then we have cardboard box shipments declining at fastest rate since 2008/2009.
At least Ethereum is up over 2% this morning.
And the US Treasury 10Y-2Y keeps on diving deeper into inversion.
Joe Biden, the face of Bidenomics.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
I wonder if cardboard boxes is a good measure any more.
Maybe the greenies have decreased their use to save da erf or some such silliness....................
Actually, yes. Cardboard boxes are still a pretty good leading indicator. Pallets, not so much. Because you can used the same amount of pallets whether the boxes are stacked in a single layer or 12 or more high.
“cardboard box shipments declining at fastest rate since 2008/2009.”
Housing indicator ... always shows up on the low end first..
boxes might be a good indicator
But when the last new bank and new church gets built, THEN I will know it is over.
FWIW, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey interviews me every month. They always seem to find me even when I change jobs.
Now do tyvek bags
Around here, companies are giving away pallets.
They place them out by the road in front of the company, and some Mexican-looking guy comes around with a trailer and picks them up by the hundreds. I assume he resells them or makes something out of the wood.........
Did Amazon stop using largest boxes to ship smallest items?
I wouldn't expect it to stay as high as in 2021 and the ramping down started in 2022.
I always watch the flow of trains. Still have coal trains rolling through at the same pace. But product trains are getting less and less. Even the ones with Chinese junk are thinning out.
How Pallet Brokers Play a Crucial Role in a Down Economy
https://packagingrevolution.net/pallet-brokers-crucial-role/
I think cardboard is a better indicator than ever. The reason - online shipping - cardboard is a more direct measure of activity than ever before. I’ve long been a believer in the “cardboard” gauge of economic activity.
Cardboard is one of the best indicators.
Also, look at what grocery stores are stocking in their meat departments.
Are these newish pallets that could be reused as is? Or battered pallets that would require considerable repair.
If the former, I would guess you live in a neighborhood which imports a lot and exports little. Even if the imbalance is in domestic trade between your local area of Florida and wherever it is from where the pallets arrive.
NW Panhandle, Ft. Walton Beach.
I see this guy hauling pallets all over the place.
They are good looking pallets. All kinds. I assume he sells them................
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