Posted on 10/30/2023 8:37:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The United States is borrowing its way to disguise recession.
The headline economic figures for the United States look robust. However, details show concerning weaknesses.
Real GDP growth surged to 4.9% in the third quarter, above the consensus estimate of 4.5%. However, some analysts, including Bloomberg, expected up to 5% growth based on the nowcast estimates.
United States unemployment is also low, at 3.8%, but real wage growth remains negative, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Between September 2022 and the same month of 2023, the decrease in real average weekly earnings was 0.1%. This means that a tight labor market is not improving the real disposable income of workers. Additionally, the labor participation rate and employment-to-population ratio remain below pre-pandemic levels. Add rising taxes to inflation, eating away at wage growth, and you can see why things are more complicated than what headlines suggest.
The cracks in the bullish story will appear soon. Consumer spending grew at a strong 4.0% annualized rate in the third quarter, which surprised most analysts after a weak 0.8% in the previous reading. The worrying fact is that this rise in consumption comes mostly from higher debt, as United States consumers are borrowing heavily to spend on entertainment. The rise in services was 3.6%, while real disposable income is negative (-0.1%) and household credit card debt reaches a new record. Unsurprisingly, credit card debt rose to a new high of more than $1 trillion, with the average consumer running a $5,900 debt on their card, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Last year, credit card interest rose to $105 billion, and this year will be much higher.
Americans are living on borrowed time as real salaries remain in negative territory in the past five years and inflation eats savings away. This may last, but not much.
More concerning figures in GDP: A strong economy does not show a decline in investment of this magnitude. Nonresidential business investment fell 0.1%, including a 3.8% slump in equipment investment. According to Morgan Stanley, capital expenditure plans have fallen to May 2020 levels.
The mirage of construction is also gone, as it fell to just 1.6% after a one-off double-digit increase in the past quarter. Furthermore, a large part of the growth in GDP came from bloated government spending financed with more debt and inventory revaluation, adding 0.8 and 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Many of these temporary effects will revert in the fourth quarter.
The level of public debt is exceedingly concerning. The increase in gross domestic product between the third quarter of 2022 and the same period of 2023 was a mere $414.3 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, while the increase in public debt was $1.3 trillion ($32.3 to $33.6 trillion, according to the Treasury).
The United States is now in the worst year of growth, excluding public debt accumulation since the thirties.
Consumption financed by soaring credit card debt and economic growth disguised by enormous government spending and record public debt are not indicators of a strong economy but proof of a very worrying trend that may last another two quarters but will likely result in a much weaker economy in the next three years.
We’re all living on borrowed time. What else is new.
My thoughts exactly.
Ignoring that the Federal gov’t protects terrorists
entering the Republic by the millions (opposite what
it is Constitutionally-supposed to do),
while it conducts treason covering up treason at the
highest levels,
inflation is only caused by the Fed printing money
it does not have, to payoff Congress, the DO”J”,
and itself.
On August 24th 2019, the reckless #CentralBankers, “advised” by even more reckless @BlackRock
, gave the go-ahead for #GoingDirectReset
https://twitter.com/Thomas_Binder/status/1716738147361390704
Sooner or later the doom sayers will be right. But in the meantime, they intend to cash in on their dire predictions.
I see a similarity between financial doomsayers and climate change whores.
The bulk of debt and of the growth in debt has come from mortgages on new home purchases. Most were originated at rates far lower than this year’s so I don’t think that the default rate will increase much.
Massive social spending due to massive, unchecked entry by third world trash into this country. Until there are real borders, spending cannot be brought under control or America’s future be secured.
.
“Slowly then suddenly” is pretty much the way it’s gonna be…
This is a intentional collapse of the system to force a new banking system.
Brought to by Blackrock and the US Fed Reserve.
It’s more like we’re all living on a borrowed dime.
That too.
Everything is awesome!
Texas Manufacturing Sector Contracts for 18th Month
United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’s general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -19.2 in October of 2023, down from -18.1 in the prior month, and marking the 18th consecutive negative reading to suggest a sustained deterioration in business conditions. The developments occurred as new order levels fell at a faster pace (-5.2 vs -8.8 in September), aligned with toughening consumer appetite as the Federal Reserve maintained its aggressively hawkish outlook for monetary policy. While slowing further, output growth remained positive (5.2 vs 7.9) due to a sharp decline in unfilled orders (-12.9 vs 0.4). In the meantime, shipments (-1.4 vs -1.1) declined, and both wages (24.4 vs 34.8) and employment (6.7 vs 13.6) slowed. Still, prices paid for raw materials slowed considerably (13.6 vs 25), but remained positive for the 42nd consecutive month.
Dollar Edges Lower
The dollar was around 106.3 on Monday, as traders await the FOMC decision and key economic data including the JOLTS, the payrolls report and the ISM PMIs later in the week for further updates on the strength of the US economy. The greenback is set to end the October month little changed around one-year highs, amid expectations the Fed will keep borrowing costs elevated for some time and as the US economy continues to be much more resilient than other major ones. On Monday however, one of the biggest selling activity was against the Euro after upbeat inflation and GDP figures for Germany lifted the common.
The conversion of massive amounts of relatively low interest debt to the higher interest rates of today is going to be a disaster... the debt alone was disaster enough, now that we will be paying double or triple the interest on it when it is forced to convert is going to be a flat out disaster.
If the Dems succeed in destroying the country, what authority will protect them from the wrath of the people? From inside what impenetrable bubble do they exist? They will find it is not so impenetrable after all.
They don’t need to print the money. A coup!e of key strokes, and voila, money is created.
Consumer demand is increasing?
Unlikely, in my opinion.
The total NUMBER of consumers is increasing.
New illegal immigrants are crossing the border at 10,000 per day.
USA government agencies are paying their rent, their grocery bill, their medical bills, and their K-12 education bills - all of it with borrowed (or printed) money.
This speculative balloon is going to pop.
When, is the only question.
History shows that governments can borrow or create money for a LONG time.
The total NUMBER of consumers is increasing.
^^^^^ This. Federal government spending under the turnip has been pushing close to 25% of total GDP, just sayin”.
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