Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
When is the next official update?
21 minutes.
Sometimes I think between actual flights inside the storm they sometime extrapolate the storms position when it’s this far out.
WE have major problems
live data from the HH I’m looking at is showing surface winds SSW on the SE side of that big blowup..that means the center is reforming more north...
new HNC discssion should be out any second
We’ll get the update any minute. I expected this to possibly become a tropical storm by this evening, and it was one about 9 am Houston time although the NHC didn’t confirm that until about noon.
The northern Mexico/Brownsville track is going to shift north. Of that, I’m sure.
I don’t know whether this will mess with Houston or not, but I’m sure not ruling it out.
We have been expecting that.
Lol, I’ll be singing that for the next week!
that means less time over land, if any and a more north course..
new update from NHC says that they cant find a center...
maybe becasue it is reforming more north
DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY DOESN’T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF DOLLY MOVING WOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.
NN, are you with us?
I put the track NNW,,,
I don’t think it’s gunna hit land,,,JMHO...
IOW the official report is still nothing more than a WAG. I think we all here have done that well.
So...you think it's going to 'run the gap' between Cuba and the Yucatan?
Click on the link at 104 and be sure to refresh, it sure looks like it might.
easier referancehttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
The NHC couldn’t find the center. Either they screwed up or the center is reforming.
It doesn’t matter because whatever interaction the storm has with the Yucatan tonight will be resolved tomorrow.
It’s a big dang storm and only a fool would suggest that it won’t become a hurricane, and probably by tomorrow. We’ll take it from there.
NHC does not radically shift from forecast to forecast.. they are slowly ramping things up even if the storm has yet to fully get its act together.
Thanks. guess my computer doesn't 'do' Java.
This Galveston Bay girl hit the grocery store today to pick up a few things just in case. I hate last minute shopping when the pickins are thin. Plywood is still sitting in the garage from the last threat we had. We can use the rain, that’s for sure.
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